2016-2017 NBA Season Prediction


We are back for another year of NBA projections and to start the season it should be no surprise that the Cavs and Warriors have the highest odds to win it all! We use data from the our NBA Team Ratings, results from played games, and the future NBA schedule for our simulations. We run this simulation 1,000 times and report the results. One will find expected win total for all the NBA teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the NBA Championship. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The NBA season prediction takes into account all the basic tiebreaker and playoff rules. Starting in this 2015-16 season, the division champions no longer will occupy the top three spots of their conference in the playoffs. The seeding from one to eight will now be done based on overall record within the conference.

We also provide our NBA Game Predictions. These are available for a more detailed break down of the individual games coming up.

Updates

January 27th, 2017: Cleveland has struggled as of late and this has been reflected in the simulation as their chance of winning the NBA title is now down to 14.3%. Golden State on the other hand has seen their odds of winning the championship jump from 31% to 49.6% since the last simulation done on December 19th.

February 17th, 2017: Heading into the NBA All-Star break, there are a few changes that we’ve seen since our last simulation. Winning eleven out of their last twelve, the Wizards now have an 84.5% chance to win the Southeast division, up from 35.3% in our last simulation. The Warriors continue to see their odds of winning the World Championship go up as they are now have a probability of 56.8% to win it all.

Original Posting: 11/4/2016
Last simulation was done on 2/17/2017.

NBA Season Prediction – Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Boston
37
20
51.7
30.3
88.2%
-747
Toronto
33
24
47
35
11.8%
+747
New York
23
34
33.8
48.2
0%
No Odds
Philadelphia
21
35
31.1
50.9
0%
No Odds
Brooklyn
9
47
16.8
65.2
0%
No Odds
Central Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Cleveland
39
16
55.8
26.2
100%
No Odds
Indiana
29
28
41.4
40.6
0%
No Odds
Detroit
27
30
39.9
42.1
0%
No Odds
Chicago
28
29
39.9
42.1
0%
No Odds
Milwaukee
25
30
37.4
44.6
0%
No Odds
Southeast Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Washington
34
21
49.2
32.8
84.5%
-545
Atlanta
32
24
45.3
36.7
15.4%
+549
Miami
25
32
36.9
45.1
0%
No Odds
Charlotte
24
32
36.4
45.6
0.1%
+99900
Orlando
21
37
30.5
51.5
0%
No Odds
Northwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Utah
35
22
49
33
81.2%
-432
Oklahoma City
32
25
45.5
36.5
18.7%
+435
Denver
25
31
38
44
0.1%
+99900
Portland
23
33
35.5
46.5
0%
No Odds
Minnesota
22
35
33.2
48.8
0%
No Odds
Pacific Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Golden State
47
9
66.8
15.3
100%
No Odds
LA Clippers
35
21
49.1
32.9
0%
No Odds
Sacramento
24
33
35.1
46.9
0%
No Odds
Phoenix
18
39
28.2
53.8
0%
No Odds
LA Lakers
19
39
27.8
54.3
0%
No Odds
Southwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
San Antonio
43
13
59.6
22.4
94%
-1567
Houston
40
18
54
28
5.9%
+1595
Memphis
34
24
47.1
34.9
0.1%
+99900
Dallas
22
34
34.2
47.8
0%
No Odds
New Orleans
23
34
33.8
48.2
0%
No Odds

NBA Season Prediction – To Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Championship

Atlantic Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Boston
100%
No Odds
15.7%
+537
2.9%
+3348
Toronto
99.8%
-49900
10.6%
+843
1.9%
+5163
New York
3.6%
+2678
0.1%
+99900
0%
No Odds
Philadelphia
0.3%
+33233
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Brooklyn
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Central Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Cleveland
100%
No Odds
47.1%
+112
14.7%
+580
Indiana
84.7%
-554
3.3%
+2930
0.7%
+14186
Detroit
67.8%
-211
2%
+4900
0.3%
+33233
Chicago
67.9%
-212
1.6%
+6150
0.1%
+99900
Milwaukee
32.8%
+205
0.6%
+16567
0.2%
+49900
Southeast Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Washington
100%
No Odds
12.9%
+675
3.1%
+3126
Atlanta
99.1%
-11011
4.6%
+2074
0.7%
+14186
Miami
23.2%
+331
0.9%
+11011
0.1%
+99900
Charlotte
20.7%
+383
0.6%
+16567
0%
No Odds
Orlando
0.1%
+99900
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Northwest Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Utah
100%
No Odds
2.6%
+3746
1%
+9900
Oklahoma City
99.2%
-12400
1.5%
+6567
0.6%
+16567
Denver
55.6%
-125
0.5%
+19900
0.2%
+49900
Portland
15.9%
+529
0.1%
+99900
0.1%
+99900
Minnesota
3.6%
+2678
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Pacific Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Golden State
100%
No Odds
68.8%
-221
56.8%
-131
LA Clippers
100%
No Odds
0.8%
+12400
0.2%
+49900
Sacramento
11.9%
+740
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Phoenix
0.2%
+49900
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
LA Lakers
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Southwest Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
San Antonio
100%
No Odds
18.3%
+446
12.6%
+694
Houston
100%
No Odds
5.6%
+1686
3.1%
+3126
Memphis
99.9%
-99900
1.6%
+6150
0.7%
+14186
Dallas
7%
+1329
0.2%
+49900
0%
No Odds
New Orleans
6.7%
+1393
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
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