2016-2017 NBA Season Prediction


We are back for another year of NBA projections and to start the season it should be no surprise that the Cavs and Warriors have the highest odds to win it all! We use data from the our NBA Team Ratings, results from played games, and the future NBA schedule for our simulations. We run this simulation 1,000 times and report the results. One will find expected win total for all the NBA teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the NBA Championship. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The NBA season prediction takes into account all the basic tiebreaker and playoff rules. Starting in this 2015-16 season, the division champions no longer will occupy the top three spots of their conference in the playoffs. The seeding from one to eight will now be done based on overall record within the conference.

We also provide our NBA Game Predictions. These are available for a more detailed break down of the individual games coming up.

Updates

January 27th, 2017: Cleveland has struggled as of late and this has been reflected in the simulation as their chance of winning the NBA title is now down to 14.3%. Golden State on the other hand has seen their odds of winning the championship jump from 31% to 49.6% since the last simulation done on December 19th.

February 17th, 2017: Heading into the NBA All-Star break, there are a few changes that we’ve seen since our last simulation. Winning eleven out of their last twelve, the Wizards now have an 84.5% chance to win the Southeast division, up from 35.3% in our last simulation. The Warriors continue to see their odds of winning the World Championship go up as they are now have a probability of 56.8% to win it all.

April 1st, 2017: There is movement all over the board. Perhaps the most impressive is with the Washington Wizards jumping from 44.7 projected wins to 49.1 projected wins since the last simulation six weeks ago.

April 14th, 2017: With the regular season over, we have set the playoff odds.

April 30th, 2017: The first round of the playoffs are over. We ran the simulation again to get the updated odds to win for each team remaining.

May 13th, 2017: Still no surprises in the simulation. Golden State is now projected to have a probability of 58% to win the title.

May 26th, 2017: Final simulation with Golden State and Cleveland in the NBA Finals.

Original Posting: 11/4/2016
Last simulation was done on 5/26/2017.

NBA Season Prediction – Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Boston
53
29
53
29
100%
No Odds
Toronto
51
31
51
31
0%
No Odds
New York
31
51
31
51
0%
No Odds
Philadelphia
28
54
28
54
0%
No Odds
Brooklyn
20
62
20
62
0%
No Odds
Central Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Cleveland
51
31
51
31
100%
No Odds
Indiana
42
40
42
40
0%
No Odds
Milwaukee
42
40
42
40
0%
No Odds
Chicago
41
41
41
41
0%
No Odds
Detroit
37
45
37
45
0%
No Odds
Southeast Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Washington
49
33
49
33
100%
No Odds
Atlanta
43
39
43
39
0%
No Odds
Miami
41
41
41
41
0%
No Odds
Charlotte
36
46
36
46
0%
No Odds
Orlando
29
53
29
53
0%
No Odds
Northwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Utah
51
31
51
31
100%
No Odds
Oklahoma City
47
35
47
35
0%
No Odds
Portland
41
41
41
41
0%
No Odds
Denver
40
42
40
42
0%
No Odds
Minnesota
31
51
31
51
0%
No Odds
Pacific Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
Golden State
67
15
67
15
100%
No Odds
LA Clippers
51
31
51
31
0%
No Odds
Sacramento
32
50
32
50
0%
No Odds
LA Lakers
26
56
26
56
0%
No Odds
Phoenix
24
58
24
58
0%
No Odds
Southwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Prob to Win Division ML on Winning Div
San Antonio
61
21
61
21
100%
No Odds
Houston
55
27
55
27
0%
No Odds
Memphis
43
39
43
39
0%
No Odds
New Orleans
34
48
34
48
0%
No Odds
Dallas
33
49
33
49
0%
No Odds

NBA Season Prediction – To Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Championship

Atlantic Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Boston
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Toronto
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
New York
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Philadelphia
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Brooklyn
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Central Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Cleveland
100%
No Odds
100%
No Odds
36.7%
+172
Indiana
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Milwaukee
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Chicago
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Detroit
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Southeast Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Washington
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Atlanta
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Miami
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Charlotte
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Orlando
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Northwest Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Utah
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Oklahoma City
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Portland
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Denver
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Minnesota
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Pacific Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
Golden State
100%
No Odds
100%
No Odds
63.3%
-172
LA Clippers
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Sacramento
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
LA Lakers
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Phoenix
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Southwest Playoff % ML Playoffs Conf Win % ML Conf Win NBA Champ Win % ML on NBA Champ
San Antonio
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Houston
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Memphis
100%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
New Orleans
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Dallas
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds

NBA Playoff Simulation

Team Before Playoffs Probabilities – Updated 5/26
Prob of Making 2nd Round Prob of Making Conf Finals Prob of Winning Conference Prob of Winning NBA Championship Prob of Making 2nd Round Prob of Making Conf Finals Prob of Winning Conference Prob of Winning NBA Championship
Golden State
83.8%
66.8%
50.6%
41.1%
100%
100%
100%
63.3%
Cleveland
78.1%
52.5%
34.6%
13.3%
100%
100%
100%
36.7%
Boston
70.8%
41.4%
20.7%
5.7%
100%
100%
0%
0%
San Antonio
75%
48.2%
21.2%
13.8%
100%
100%
0%
0%
Toronto
65%
28.2%
15.3%
4%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Washington
67.9%
38.2%
17.4%
4.5%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Utah
46.5%
11.8%
4.9%
2.3%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Houston
65.8%
31.4%
11.4%
7.1%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Indiana
21.9%
7.7%
2.5%
0.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Milwaukee
35%
11.6%
4.5%
0.7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Chicago
29.2%
10.3%
2.6%
0.4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Atlanta
32.1%
10.1%
2.4%
0.4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Oklahoma City
34.2%
10.5%
2.9%
1.3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Portland
16.2%
7.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
LA Clippers
53.5%
14.1%
4.2%
2.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Memphis
25%
9.9%
1.5%
0.7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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