2016-2017 UEFA Champions League Simulation


This is our simulation for all the rounds of the 2016-17 Champions League. It has been moved over from Champions League Simulation, which covers the most recent season.

UEFA Champions League – Finals

The Champions League Final is set for June 3rd, 2017 at National Stadium of Wales.

Date Away Home Odds in 90 Minutes Odds to Win Score Proj Total Goals
6/3
Real Madrid
Spain
Juventus
Italy
Juventus to win: 28% Juventus to win: 42.6% 1.24 2.82
Real Madrid to win: 42.7% Real Madrid to win: 57.3% 1.58
Odds to Draw: 29.3%

UEFA Champions League – Semifinals

The first leg of the Semifinals will be played on the 2nd and 3rd of May and the second leg will be played on the 9th and 10th of May.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Atl. Madrid Spain 2.2% 0.8% 0% 0.7% 0.7% 27.2%
Real Madrid Spain 97.8% 94.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 72.8%
2 Juventus Italy 96.3% 95.5% 0% 0.6% 0.2% 71.6%
Monaco France 3.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 28.4%

UEFA Champions League – Quarterfinals

The first leg of the Quarterfinals will be played on the 11th and 12th of April and the second leg will be played on the 18th and 19th of April.

Probability to Advance to Semifinals

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Dortmund Germany 23.2% 21.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 76.4%
Monaco France 76.8% 56% 19.8% 0.4% 0.6% 23.6%
2 Barcelona Spain 14.1% 8.6% 0% 3.9% 1.6% 64.4%
Juventus Italy 85.9% 80.6% 3.3% 1% 1% 35.6%
3 Atl. Madrid Spain 89% 76.8% 7.8% 2.1% 2.3% 79.6%
Leicester England 11% 7% 0% 1.8% 2.2% 20.4%
4 Bayern Munich Germany 22.4% 14% 4.5% 1.9% 2% 63.5%
Real Madrid Spain 77.6% 68.4% 5.6% 2.7% 0.9% 36.5%

UEFA Champions League – Round of 16

The first leg of the Round of 16 will be played between the 14th and 22th of February and the second leg will be played on the 7th and 15th of March.

Probability to Advance to Quarterfinals

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Benfica Portugal 32.1% 18.6% 11.3% 0.72% 1.48% 6.2%
Dortmund Germany 67.9% 61.0% 0% 5.32% 1.54% 93.8%
2 Barcelona Spain 4.2% 2.6% 0% 1.06% 0.56% 77.1%
Paris SG France 95.8% 92.7% 1.8% 0.58% 0.62% 22.9%
3 Arsenal England 0.7% 0.14% 0.36% 0.08% 0.1% 26.5%
Bayern Munich Germany 99.3% 99.1% 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% 73.5%
4 Napoli Italy 7.7% 3.6% 3.06% 0.58% 0.42% 16.1%
Real Madrid Spain 92.3% 89.8% 1.36% 0.76% 0.4% 83.9%
5 Atl. Madrid Spain 98.8% 95.6% 2.98% 0.08% 0.06% 66.8%
Bayer Leverkusen Germany 1.2% 1.16% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 33.2%
6 Manchester City England 84% 83.9% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 67.7%
Monaco France 16% 5.8% 10.1% 0.02% 0% 32.3%
7 FC Porto Portugal 2.5% 0.68% 1.22% 0.26% 0.34% 25.7%
Juventus Italy 97.5% 96.2% 0% 0.86% 0.4% 74.3%
8 Leicester England 25.9% 13.3% 9.58% 1.28% 1.74% 26.5%
Sevilla Spain 74.1% 68.1% 2.58% 2.28% 1.1% 73.5%

UEFA Champions League – Group Stage

The Group stage will run from September 13th, 2016 through December 7th, 2016.

Final Group Stage Tables

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Arsenal England
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Paris SG France
3
0
3
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
Ludogorets Bulgaria
0
3
3
3
Transfer to Europa League
Basel Switzerland
0
4
2
2
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Napoli Italy
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Benfica Portugal
2
2
2
8
Advance to Knockout Stage
Besiktas Turkey
1
1
4
7
Transfer to Europa League
Dyn. Kiev Ukraine
1
3
2
5
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Barcelona Spain
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Manchester City England
2
1
3
9
Advance to Knockout Stage
B. Monchengladbach Germany
1
3
2
5
Transfer to Europa League
Celtic Scotland
0
3
3
3
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Atl. Madrid Spain
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Bayern Munich Germany
4
2
0
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
FK Rostov Russia
1
3
2
5
Transfer to Europa League
PSV Netherlands
0
4
2
2
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Monaco France
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Bayer Leverkusen Germany
2
0
4
10
Advance to Knockout Stage
Tottenham England
2
3
1
7
Transfer to Europa League
CSKA Moscow Russia
0
3
3
3
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Dortmund Germany
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Real Madrid Spain
3
0
3
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
Legia Poland
1
4
1
4
Transfer to Europa League
Sporting Portugal
1
5
0
3
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Leicester England
4
1
1
13
Advance to Knockout Stage
FC Porto Portugal
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
FC Copenhagen Denmark
2
1
3
9
Transfer to Europa League
Club Brugge KV Belgium
0
6
0
0
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Juventus Italy
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Sevilla Spain
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Lyon France
2
2
2
8
Transfer to Europa League
D. Zagreb Croatia
0
6
0
0

Original Projections Before Any Games Played

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Paris SG France
3.7
1.1
1.2
12.4
62.3%
30.1%
Arsenal England
3.1
1.6
1.3
10.6
32.3%
48.1%
Basel Switzerland
1.7
3
1.3
6.5
4.5%
16.9%
Ludogorets Bulgaria
0.9
3.9
1.2
3.9
0.9%
4.9%
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Napoli Italy
3.2
1.4
1.4
11
59.1%
23.8%
Dyn. Kiev Ukraine
2.4
2.1
1.5
8.6
22.6%
34.4%
Besiktas Turkey
1.8
2.7
1.5
6.9
10.2%
22.1%
Benfica Portugal
1.7
2.9
1.5
6.5
8.1%
19.7%
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Barcelona Spain
4.3
0.8
0.9
13.9
78.5%
19%
Manchester City England
3.1
1.8
1.1
10.3
17.9%
58.2%
B. Monchengladbach Germany
2
2.8
1.2
7.1
3.4%
21%
Celtic Scotland
0.6
4.5
0.9
2.6
0.1%
1.8%
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Bayern Munich Germany
3.9
1.1
1.1
12.7
54.8%
40.5%
Atl. Madrid Spain
3.6
1.2
1.2
12
43.3%
48.9%
PSV Netherlands
1.4
3.4
1.2
5.4
1.5%
8%
FK Rostov Russia
0.8
4
1.1
3.7
0.4%
2.6%
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Bayer Leverkusen Germany
2.6
1.9
1.5
9.3
37.1%
28.2%
Tottenham England
2.5
2
1.5
9
32.2%
29.2%
CSKA Moscow Russia
1.9
2.6
1.5
7.3
15.5%
20.7%
Monaco France
1.9
2.5
1.5
7.3
15.3%
21.9%
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Real Madrid Spain
4.6
0.6
0.8
14.7
85.6%
14.1%
Dortmund Germany
3.1
1.8
1.1
10.4
13.3%
70.7%
Sporting Portugal
1.4
3.4
1.1
5.4
1%
11.7%
Legia Poland
0.8
4.1
1.1
3.5
0.1%
3.5%
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Leicester England
3.1
1.5
1.4
10.7
47.5%
30.8%
FC Porto Portugal
2.8
1.7
1.5
10
35.4%
35.7%
Club Brugge KV Belgium
2.1
2.4
1.5
7.9
14.9%
26.6%
FC Copenhagen Denmark
1.1
3.6
1.4
4.6
2.2%
6.9%
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Juventus Italy
3.5
1.1
1.4
11.8
61.8%
27.7%
Sevilla Spain
2.8
1.8
1.4
9.8
29%
43.4%
Lyon France
1.7
2.8
1.5
6.7
6.7%
19.9%
D. Zagreb Croatia
1.2
3.5
1.3
4.9
2.4%
9%

UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – First Round

The Champions League first qualifying round consists of the eight champions that come from the eight associations at the bottom of the UEFA standings. The first leg of games take place on June 28th, 2016 and the second leg of games take place on July 5th, 2016.

The table below was updated on July 3rd, 2016 to account for the results of the first leg of matches.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Alashkert Armenia 71.7% 68.3% 0% 2.16% 1.24% 60.5%
FC Santa Coloma Andorra 28.3% 12.1% 14.5% 0.54% 1.04% 39.5%
2 Flora Estonia 82.5% 74.8% 4.4% 2.26% 0.96% 89.3%
Lincoln Red Imps Gibraltar 17.5% 10.6% 5% 1% 0.82% 10.7%
3 TNS Wales 97.7% 96.6% 0.36% 0.64% 0.1% 97.7%
Tre Penne San Marino 2.3% 0.74% 1.2% 0.04% 0.28% 2.3%
4 B36 Torshavn Faroe Islands 33% 27.4% 0% 3.34% 2.2% 90.9%
Valletta Malta 67% 48.3% 14.1% 2.1% 2.34% 9.1%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Second Round

The second qualifying round consists of the four winners from Round 1 and the thirty champions of the UEFA leagues that are ranked 16 to 45. The first leg of this round will be played on the 12th and 13th of July and the second leg will be played on the 19th and 20th of July.

The table below has been updated to account for the first leg of games that have been played.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Legia Poland 81.2% 66.1% 9.28% 3.28% 2.5% 79.2%
Zrinjski Bosnia & Herzegovina 18.8% 11.8% 3.5% 1.08% 2.36% 20.8%
2 Alashkert Armenia 8.9% 5.36% 0% 1.72% 1.84% 34.1%
Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia 91.1% 83.4% 4.68% 1.3% 1.7% 65.9%
3 Dudelange Luxembourg 9.3% 5.6% 0% 1.66% 2% 38.5%
Qarabag Azerbaijan 90.7% 83.7% 3.5% 1.5% 1.96% 61.5%
4 H. Beer Sheva Israel 62.7% 62.2% 0.06% 0.2% 0.22% 61.9%
Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova 37.3% 15.2% 21.2% 0.3% 0.4% 38.1%
5 BATE Belarus 96.1% 91.4% 2.36% 1.16% 1.14% 76.1%
SJK Finland 3.9% 2.34% 0% 0.72% 0.8% 23.9%
6 Celtic Scotland 82.7% 79.4% 0% 2.64% 0.62% 98.5%
Lincoln Red Imps Gibraltar 17.3% 8.38% 8.02% 0.32% 0.6% 1.5%
7 APOEL Cyprus 71.1% 68.1% 0% 2.08% 0.9% 76.3%
TNS Wales 28.9% 13.3% 13.7% 0.66% 1.16% 23.7%
8 FK Crvena zvezda Serbia 99.2% 96.9% 1.42% 0.68% 0.2% 97.7%
Valletta Malta 0.8% 0.48% 0.12% 0.02% 0.14% 2.3%
9 FK Liepaja Latvia 4.8% 3.68% 0% 0.32% 0.78% 6.5%
Salzburg Austria 95.2% 87.9% 5.38% 1.38% 0.52% 93.5%
10 D. Zagreb Croatia 91.1% 82.2% 6% 1.76% 1.12% 63.7%
Vardar FYR Macedonia 8.9% 5.24% 1.68% 0.84% 1.14% 36.3%
11 Norrkoping Sweden 11.1% 4% 5.94% 0.6% 0.58% 27.6%
Rosenborg Norway 88.9% 86.6% 0.84% 0.78% 0.62% 72.4%
12 FC Astana Kazakhstan 75.7% 71.9% 0% 2.42% 1.4% 82.1%
Zalgiris Lithuania 24.3% 10.2% 12.4% 0.68% 0.92% 17.9%
13 Ludogorets Bulgaria 99.3% 97.9% 0.64% 0.44% 0.22% 95.2%
Mladost Podgorica Montenegro 0.7% 0.26% 0% 0.08% 0.38% 4.8%
14 Crusaders Northern Ireland 0.2% 0.06% 0.18% 0% 0% 10.2%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 99.8% 99.7% 0% 0.04% 0.02% 89.8%
15 Ferencvaros Hungary 79.1% 64.4% 8.74% 3.54% 2.4% 77.7%
Partizani Albania 20.9% 13.6% 3.9% 1.18% 2.18% 22.3%
16 O. Ljubljana Slovenia 3.9% 3.82% 0.04% 0% 0.04% 27.9%
Trencin Slovakia 96.1% 86.5% 9.48% 0.04% 0.02% 72.1%
17 Dundalk Ireland 53% 40.4% 6.38% 3.32% 2.82% 72.2%
Hafnarfjordur Iceland 47% 31.4% 9.62% 3.22% 2.8% 27.8%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Third Round

The third qualifying round consists of the thirty winners from Round 2, the three champions from associations ranked 13 through 15, nine runners-up from associations ranked 7 through 15 and the second runner-up from the association ranked 6. The first leg of this round will be played on the 26th and 27th of July and the second leg will be played on the 2nd and 3rd of August.

This table has been updated to account for the results of the first leg.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 BATE Belarus 71.3% 53.4% 12.7% 2.52% 2.62% 57.3%
Dundalk Ireland 28.7% 22.9% 0% 3.16% 2.54% 42.7%
2 FK Crvena zvezda Serbia 78.2% 57.8% 17.6% 1.68% 0.96% 60.4%
Ludogorets Bulgaria 21.8% 18.8% 1.38% 0.68% 0.98% 39.6%
3 Partizani Albania 3% 0.76% 1.96% 0.08% 0.22% 4.2%
Salzburg Austria 97% 95.7% 0% 0.98% 0.26% 95.8%
4 Sparta Prague Czech Republic 49.6% 37.9% 5.72% 3.32% 2.62% 71.1%
Steaua Bucuresti Romania 50.4% 33.4% 10.9% 2.64% 3.36% 28.9%
5 Plzen Czech Republic 52.3% 28.9% 18.6% 1.88% 2.78% 58.2%
Qarabag Azerbaijan 47.7% 42.5% 0% 2.7% 2.52% 41.8%
6 Anderlecht Belgium 75.4% 51.6% 21.3% 1.64% 0.82% 53.8%
FK Rostov Russia 24.6% 21.8% 1.06% 0.76% 0.9% 46.2%
7 Ajax Netherlands 58.9% 46.3% 6.24% 3.54% 2.82% 76.5%
PAOK Greece 41.1% 27.5% 8.64% 2.42% 2.5% 23.5%
8 D. Zagreb Croatia 98.6% 95.4% 1.78% 0.94% 0.44% 91.6%
Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia 1.4% 1.08% 0% 0.12% 0.22% 8.4%
9 Shakhtar Donetsk Ukraine 96.3% 91.5% 3.24% 1.2% 0.4% 84.6%
Young Boys Switzerland 3.7% 2.28% 0% 0.58% 0.8% 15.4%
10 Celtic Scotland 70.9% 56.8% 7.56% 3.9% 2.64% 59.8%
FC Astana Kazakhstan 29.1% 18.8% 6.06% 1.84% 2.34% 40.2%
11 APOEL Cyprus 27.6% 13.4% 10.7% 1.68% 1.7% 28%
Rosenborg Norway 72.4% 66.3% 2.54% 1.84% 1.7% 72%
12 Astra Romania 39.1% 28.5% 5.12% 2.4% 3.02% 55.7%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 60.9% 43.6% 10.3% 3.56% 3.4% 44.3%
13 Fenerbahce Turkey 49.3% 43.2% 3.2% 1.26% 1.66% 37.8%
Monaco France 50.7% 31.8% 13.8% 2.74% 2.32% 62.2%
14 Legia Poland 83.6% 79.5% 0% 2.56% 1.5% 58.6%
Trencin Slovakia 16.4% 6.32% 7.4% 0.98% 1.72% 41.4%
15 H. Beer Sheva Israel 26.7% 24.3% 0% 1.1% 1.32% 17.2%
Olympiakos Piraeus Greece 73.3% 52.1% 17.2% 2.24% 1.68% 82.8%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Playoff Round

The playoff round consists of the fifteen winners from Round 3, two runners-up from associations ranked 4 and 5, and the second runner-up from the associations ranked 1 through 3. The first leg of this round will be played on the 16th and 17th of August and the second leg will be played on the 23rd and 24th of August.

This has been updated to account for the results from Leg 1.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Ajax Netherlands 46.1% 33.6% 6.08% 2.94% 3.38% 65%
FK Rostov Russia 53.9% 36.7% 11.5% 2.8% 2.86% 35%
2 D. Zagreb Croatia 24.6% 15.1% 6.54% 1.28% 1.64% 31.1%
Salzburg Austria 75.4% 65.8% 4.4% 3.64% 1.54% 68.9%
3 APOEL Cyprus 31.7% 24.7% 0% 3.88% 3.1% 48.7%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 68.3% 50.4% 12.6% 2.44% 2.82% 51.3%
4 FC Steaua Bucuresti Romania 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.6%
Manchester City England 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 92.4%
5 B. Monchengladbach Germany 98.9% 97.2% 1.14% 0.38% 0.1% 81.8%
Young Boys Switzerland 1.1% 0.6% 0.26% 0.12% 0.16% 18.2%
6 Celtic Scotland 94.5% 94.4% 0% 0% 0.02% 61.4%
H. Beer Sheva Israel 5.5% 1.3% 4.08% 0.06% 0.1% 38.6%
7 Dundalk Ireland 5.3% 1.96% 1.82% 0.72% 0.78% 43.5%
Legia Poland 94.7% 92.9% 0% 1.1% 0.68% 56.5%
8 AS Roma Italy 68.4% 55.1% 6.58% 4.24% 2.4% 56.7%
FC Porto Portugal 31.6% 20.4% 6.34% 2.12% 2.7% 43.3%
9 Ludogorets Bulgaria 79.2% 67.8% 7.54% 1.38% 2.46% 40.7%
Plzen Czech Republic 20.8% 14.8% 0% 3.66% 2.3% 59.3%
10 Monaco France 83.8% 67.6% 12.9% 1.22% 1.98% 38.9%
Villarreal Spain 16.2% 11.7% 1.5% 1.56% 1.46% 61.1%
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