2018 World Cup Qualifying Projections for CAF


The Confederation of African Football (CAF) consists of 54 teams across six zones and is granted five slots in the 2018 World Cup. Zimbabwe was not allowed into the qualification tournament, so qualifying included the other 53 teams in a three round format. The first round matched teams ranked 28th through 53rd in the FIFA rankings in a home-and-away match up. The second round includes the top 27 teams within the confederation and the thirteen winners of the first round. Those 40 teams play a home-and-away two leg match to then determine which twenty teams make it to the third round. In this round, those twenty teams are placed into five groups of four teams which play a home-and-away with every other team in the group. The winners of each of these give groups are then given a birth into the 2018 World Cup.

After the first two games of the third round, there are a few surprises in tables. In Group B, Algeria came into the tournament as the top-rated team in all of CAF. But after a disappointing African Cup of Nations and a loss and draw in their first two qualifying games, they are on the ropes. That said, Algeria has gone from a 41.8% chance to win the group to a 10.7% chance while Nigeria has gone from 29.3% to 69.1%. Group D continues to be the most hotly contested group in CAF qualifying. With the exception of Cape Verde, every team has between a 29 and 35% chance to win the group.

We simulated all of the games 1,000 times based on our most current rankings of all FIFA International Clubs.

For our individual game projections, see: World Cup Game Predictions.

For our UEFA World Cup projections, see: UEFA World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CONCACAF World Cup projections, see: CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CONMEBOL World Cup projections, see: CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our AFC World Cup projections, see: AFC World Cup Qualifying Projections.

Updated on 2/8/2017 @ 3:52pm ET.

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Group A – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Tunisia
3
0
1
10
4
0.6
1.5
13.4
D.R. Congo
2
1
1
7
3.1
1.4
1.5
10.7
Guinea
1
3
0
3
1.5
4
0.5
5.1
Libya
1
3
0
3
1.4
4.1
0.5
4.8

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Group B – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Nigeria
3
0
1
10
3.9
0.6
1.5
13.3
Zambia
2
1
1
7
2.5
1.9
1.6
9.1
Cameroon
0
1
3
3
0.8
1.6
3.6
6.1
Algeria
0
3
1
1
0.6
3.9
1.5
3.3

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Group C – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Ivory Coast
2
1
1
7
2.8
1.6
1.6
9.9
Morocco
1
0
3
6
1.9
0.5
3.5
9.3
Gabon
1
1
2
5
1.6
1.9
2.5
7.3
Mali
0
2
2
2
0.6
2.9
2.5
4.4

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Group D – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Burkina Faso
1
0
3
6
1.8
0.6
3.6
9
Senegal
1
1
2
5
1.9
1.5
2.6
8.4
Cape Verde
2
2
0
6
2.5
2.9
0.6
8.1
South Africa
1
2
1
4
1.6
2.8
1.6
6.4

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Group E – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Egypt
3
1
0
9
4
1.5
0.5
12.5
Uganda
2
1
1
7
2.8
1.6
1.7
10
Ghana
1
1
2
5
1.7
1.7
2.6
7.6
Congo
0
3
1
1
0.4
4
1.5
2.8

#Four games out of six have been played in the CAF home-and-away schedule. The fifth matchday is on October 2nd, 2017. The sixth matchday is on November 6th, 2017. The above table is sorted by projection, not actual results.

CAF World Cup Qualifying – Probability to Advance Over Time

Group Team Projections by Matchday
Pre-Tourney After 2 Games After 4 Games
A D.R. Congo
40.3%
60.2%
22.3%
Guinea
18.2%
0.7%
0%
Libya
4.3%
0.1%
0%
Tunisia
37.2%
39%
77.7%
B Algeria
41.8%
10.7%
0%
Cameroon
23.2%
18.8%
0%
Nigeria
29.3%
69.1%
93.7%
Zambia
5.7%
1.4%
6.3%
C Gabon
10.4%
11.5%
6.2%
Ivory Coast
37.2%
58.5%
53.9%
Mali
22.2%
8.8%
0%
Morocco
30.2%
21.2%
39.9%
D Burkina Faso
17.8%
29.3%
46.5%
Cape Verde
8.4%
1.1%
18.1%
Senegal
47%
35.9%
26%
South Africa
26.8%
33.7%
9.4%
E Congo
6.2%
0.6%
0%
Egypt
50.6%
85%
84.2%
Ghana
26.9%
4%
4.1%
Uganda
16.3%
10.4%
11.7%
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