2018 World Cup Qualifying Projections for CONCACAF


USMNT vs. MexicoIn it’s current format, CONCACAF has 35 members which are vying for four World Cup spots. With the four previous rounds being played, 29 teams have been weeded out and the fifth round of CONCACAF qualifying consists of six teams. These six teams play a home-and-away with every other team in the “Hex” for a total of ten games. These games are played from November of 2016 and run until October of 2017 during international dates on the FIFA calendar.

The top three teams at the end of the “Hex” will advance to the 2018 World Cup. In a somewhat unique twist, the team that finishes fourth in the table will then advance to the inter-confederation playoffs. This consists of a two leg home-and-away match up with the fifth place team from the AFC to determine who advances to the World Cup.

We simulated all of the games 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: World Cup Game Predictions. For all current rankings of all FIFA International Clubs, see: International Soccer Rankings.

For the current odds to advance for each team, see:
For our UEFA World Cup projections, see: UEFA World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CONMEBOL World Cup projections, see: CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CAF World Cup projections, see: CAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our AFCWorld Cup projections, see: AFC World Cup Qualifying Projections.

Originally posted on 4/5/2017.

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Mexico
4
0
2
14
6.2
0.8
3
21.7
Costa Rica
3
1
2
11
4.6
2.3
3
16.9
USA
2
2
2
8
4
3
3
15
Panama
1
1
4
7
2.4
2.7
5
12.1
Honduras
1
3
2
5
1.9
5.2
3
8.6
Trinidad & Tobago
1
5
0
3
2
7.1
1
6.8

#Six games out of ten have been played in the Hexagonal. The fifth and sixth games are on September 1st and September 5th, respectively. The above table is sorted by projection, not actual results.

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying- Probability to win Hexagonal, Advance, and Not Advance

Probability to Win/Advance/Not Advance
Team Win Group Advance 4th Place Play-In Not Advance
Mexico
82.8%
100%
0.1%
0%
Costa Rica
13.8%
96.1%
7.7%
3.9%
USA
3%
87.2%
17.3%
12.8%
Panama
0.4%
44.9%
57.8%
55.1%
Honduras
0%
4%
9.9%
96%
Trinidad & Tobago
0%
2.1%
7.2%
97.9%

*The odds to “Advance” above is the probability to advance by finishing either in the top 3 of the group or by way of the inter-confederation playoffs against the AFC 5th place winner. As a reminder, the CONCACAF 4th place finisher plays in a home-and-away playoff versus a team from the AFC confederation.

Probability to Advance Over Time

Team Projections by Matchday
Pre-Tourney After 2 Games After 4 Games After 6 Games
Mexico
91.9%
96.7%
99.5%
100%
Costa Rica
81.6%
96%
93.9%
96.1%
USA
79.6%
58.4%
74.6%
87.2%
Panama
52%
67.2%
50.7%
44.9%
Honduras
16.9%
12.3%
8.8%
4%
Trinidad & Tobago
13.4%
4.3%
6.3%
2.1%
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