2018 World Cup Qualifying Projections for CONMEBOL


CONMEBOLCONMEBOL World Cup qualifying is a very robust tournament taking all 10 members and placing them in a home-and-away round robin for eighteen games over a two year period. In it’s current format, the top four teams in the table at the end of qualifying will advance to the World Cup. The team that finishes fifth will play in the inter-confederation playoffs against the third round winner of the OFC group.

We simulated all of the games 1,000 times based on our most current rankings of all FIFA International Clubs. With only six games remaining, Brazil is in the driver’s seat with over a 98% chance to finish in the top four of the group to advance. Venezuela and Bolivia are not yet mathematically eliminated, but have no chance to advance. The middle of the group is still very interesting as only two points separate the third and sixth place teams.

It’s also important to note that the fifth place team is very likely to make the World Cup tournament as the two remaining teams in the OFC bracket are New Zealand and Tahiti. Whomever the fifth place team is out of CONMEBOL will be heavy favorites to win the two leg playoff.

For our individual game projections, see: World Cup Game Predictions.

For our CONCACAF World Cup projections, see: CONCACAF World Cup Game Projections.
For our UEFA World Cup projections, see: UEFA World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CAF World Cup projections, see: CAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.

Updated on 1/31/2017 @ 2:57pm ET.

CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Brazil
8
1
3
27
10.9
2.5
4.5
37.4
Uruguay
7
3
2
23
10
5.2
2.8
32.9
Argentina
5
3
4
19
8.9
3.6
5.5
32.2
Chile
6
4
2
20
8.8
5.8
3.4
29.7
Ecuador
6
4
2
20
8.7
6.7
2.7
28.6
Colombia
5
4
3
18
8.2
6
3.8
28.3
Peru
4
6
2
14
6.3
7.9
3.7
22.7
Paraguay
4
5
3
15
4.7
8.7
4.6
18.7
Venezuela
1
9
2
5
2.5
11.8
3.7
11.1
Bolivia
2
9
1
7
3
13.7
1.3
10.3

#Twelve games out of eighteen have been played in the CONMEBOL schedule. The thirteenth and fourteenth games are on March 23rd and March 28th, respectively. The above table is sorted by projection, not actual results.

CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying- Probability to win the Table, Advance, and Not Advance

Probability to Win/Advance/Not Advance
Team Win Group Advance 5th Place Play-In Not Advance
Brazil
71.7%
98.4%
1.4%
1.6%
Uruguay
16%
87.1%
8.5%
12.9%
Argentina
7.2%
79.9%
12.2%
20.1%
Chile
2.3%
57.5%
21%
42.5%
Ecuador
1.6%
40%
23.9%
60%
Colombia
1.2%
34.1%
25.8%
65.9%
Peru
0%
3%
6.6%
97%
Paraguay
0%
0%
0.6%
100%
Venezuela
0%
0%
0%
100%
Bolivia
0%
0%
0%
100%

*The odds to “Advance” above is the probability to advance by finishing in the top 4 of the group. It does not include the odds to advance by way of winning in the inter-confederation playoffs against the OFC winner.

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