2018 World Cup Qualifying Projections for UEFA


UEFA GermanyFor the 2018 World Cup, UEFA is granted fourteen spots from the 55 teams in it’s confederation. One team, Russia, is an automatic qualifier because the tournament will be played in their country. The other 54 teams vie for the other thirteen spots by way of a round-robin tournament which is made up of nine groups with six teams per group. The winners of each of these groups will qualify for the World Cup. The top eight (of nine) second place teams in each of these groups will then draw another second place team to play in a two game home-and-away to determine who will fill the other four slots.

Group G is perhaps the most interesting group in that it has both Italy and Spain in the group. Regardless of who wins that group, the loser will likely be a heavy favorite in the playoff round to move on to Russia. In Group B, Portugal is a team that will be facing a similar situation if they can’t pull off the win in their table. After four games, there appears to five locks (greater than 90% chance to advance) in France, Germany, Poland, England and Belgium. The odds on favorites to fill the last eight spots are Switzerland, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Serbia, and the Netherlands.

We simulated all of the games 1,000 times based on our most current rankings of all FIFA International Clubs.

For our individual game projections, see: World Cup Game Predictions.

For our CONCACAF World Cup projections, see: CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CONMEBOL World Cup projections, see: CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CAF World Cup projections, see: CAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our AFC World Cup projections, see: AFC World Cup Qualifying Projections.

Originally on 3/30/2017.

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group A – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
France
4
1
1
13
6.8
1.4
1.8
22.1
Sweden
4
1
1
13
6
2.1
1.9
19.9
Netherlands
3
2
1
10
4.8
3.3
1.8
16.3
Bulgaria
3
3
0
9
4.2
4.8
0.9
13.7
Belarus
1
3
2
5
2
5
3
9
Luxembourg
0
5
1
1
0.5
7.7
1.8
3.4

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group B – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Switzerland
6
0
0
18
8.3
0.9
0.8
25.6
Portugal
5
1
0
15
7.6
1.6
0.8
23.7
Hungary
2
3
1
7
3.8
4.4
1.9
13.2
Faroe Islands
1
3
2
5
2.5
4.8
2.7
10.1
Latvia
1
5
0
3
2.1
7.1
0.9
7.1
Andorra
1
4
1
4
1.4
6.9
1.8
5.9

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group C – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Germany
6
0
0
18
8.8
0.4
0.8
27.1
Northern Ireland
4
1
1
13
6
2.1
1.9
19.9
Czech Republic
2
1
3
9
3.6
2.5
3.8
14.7
Azerbaijan
2
3
1
7
3.3
4.8
1.8
11.8
Norway
1
4
1
4
2.7
5.4
1.9
10
San Marino
0
6
0
0
0.2
9.3
0.5
1.1

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group D – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Ireland
3
0
3
12
4.9
1
4
18.8
Serbia
3
0
3
12
4.8
1.1
4.1
18.4
Wales
1
0
5
8
3.3
0.8
6
15.8
Austria
2
2
2
8
3.9
3.1
2.9
14.8
Georgia
0
3
3
3
0.6
5.4
4
5.9
Moldova
0
4
2
2
0.5
6.6
2.9
4.3

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group E – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Poland
5
0
1
16
7.5
0.6
1.9
24.5
Montenegro
3
2
1
10
4.4
3.5
2.1
15.3
Denmark
3
2
1
10
4.3
3.6
2.1
14.9
Romania
1
2
3
6
3
3
4
13.1
Armenia
2
4
0
6
2.9
6.2
0.9
9.7
Kazakhstan
0
4
2
2
0.9
6.2
3
5.6

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group F – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
England
4
0
2
14
6.7
0.5
2.8
22.8
Slovakia
4
2
0
12
5.7
3.3
1
18.1
Slovenia
3
1
2
11
4.5
2.5
3
16.5
Scotland
2
2
2
8
3.7
3.2
3.1
14.3
Lithuania
1
3
2
5
2
5
3
8.9
Malta
0
6
0
0
0.5
8.6
0.9
2.4

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group G – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Spain
5
0
1
16
7.4
0.7
1.9
24.1
Italy
5
0
1
16
7.2
0.8
2
23.6
Israel
3
3
0
9
4.8
4.4
0.8
15.2
Albania
3
3
0
9
4.3
4.6
1.1
14
FYR Macedonia
1
5
0
3
2.2
6.9
0.9
7.6
Liechtenstein
0
6
0
0
0.3
8.9
0.8
1.7

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group H – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Belgium
5
0
1
16
7.7
0.6
1.7
24.8
Greece
3
0
3
12
5.1
1
3.9
19.2
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3
1
2
11
5.3
1.9
2.8
18.6
Cyprus
2
3
1
7
2.9
5
2
10.8
Estonia
1
4
1
4
2.5
5.6
1.9
9.3
Gibraltar
0
6
0
0
0.2
9.4
0.4
0.9

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group I – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Iceland
4
1
1
13
6.1
2
2
20.2
Croatia
4
1
1
13
6
2
2
20
Ukraine
3
1
2
11
4.8
2.2
3
17.3
Turkey
3
1
2
11
4.7
2.3
3.1
17.1
Finland
0
5
1
1
1.1
6.9
2
5.3
Kosovo
0
5
1
1
0.5
7.7
1.8
3.3

#Six games out of ten have been played in the UEFA home-and-away schedule. The seventh and eighth matchdays run from August 31st to September 5th, 2017. The final two games will be between October 5th and October 10th, 2017. The above table is sorted by projection, not actual results.

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Probability to Win Group/Advance/Not Advance

Probability to Win/Advance/Not Advance
Group Team Win Group Advance Not Advance
A France
71.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Sweden
22.7%
50.2%
49.8%
Netherlands
5.6%
15.1%
84.9%
Bulgaria
0.5%
2%
98%
Belarus
0%
0%
100%
Luxembourg
0%
0%
100%
B Switzerland
60.6%
85.1%
14.9%
Portugal
39.4%
79.6%
20.4%
Hungary
0%
0.1%
99.9%
Faroe Islands
0%
0%
100%
Latvia
0%
0%
100%
Andorra
0%
0%
100%
C Germany
98.2%
99.8%
0.2%
Northern Ireland
1.7%
38.9%
61.1%
Czech Republic
0.1%
2.5%
97.5%
Azerbaijan
0%
0%
100%
Norway
0%
0%
100%
San Marino
0%
0%
100%
D Ireland
43.4%
56.7%
43.3%
Serbia
41.2%
54.3%
45.7%
Wales
11.5%
22.1%
77.9%
Austria
3.9%
8.1%
91.9%
Georgia
0%
0%
100%
Moldova
0%
0%
100%
E Poland
98.5%
99.4%
0.6%
Montenegro
0.8%
6.7%
93.3%
Denmark
0.7%
4.7%
95.3%
Romania
0%
1.6%
98.4%
Armenia
0%
0%
100%
Kazakhstan
0%
0%
100%
F England
85.8%
92.5%
7.5%
Slovakia
11.8%
29.3%
70.7%
Slovenia
2.2%
8.5%
91.5%
Scotland
0.2%
2.2%
97.8%
Lithuania
0%
0%
100%
Malta
0%
0%
100%
G Spain
60.3%
85.8%
14.2%
Italy
39.6%
82.2%
17.8%
Israel
0.1%
0.4%
99.6%
Albania
0%
0%
100%
FYR Macedonia
0%
0%
100%
Liechtenstein
0%
0%
100%
H Belgium
93.3%
97.4%
2.6%
Greece
3.9%
20.2%
79.8%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.8%
21.1%
78.9%
Cyprus
0%
0.1%
99.9%
Estonia
0%
0%
100%
Gibraltar
0%
0%
100%
I Iceland
35.7%
49.9%
50.1%
Croatia
41.3%
57.6%
42.4%
Ukraine
12.9%
19.1%
80.9%
Turkey
10.1%
17.6%
82.4%
Finland
0%
0%
100%
Kosovo
0%
0%
100%

##The probability to advance includes both the chances of winning the group and the chance to win their playoff match if finishing second in the group.

UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Probability to Advance Over Time

Group Team Projections by Matchday
Pre-Tourney After 4 Games After 5 Games After 6 Games
A France
87.1%
95.2%
96.9%
89.2%
Netherlands
42.1%
42.5%
31%
50.2%
Sweden
22.9%
17.2%
20.1%
15.1%
Belarus
2%
0.7%
2.2%
2%
Bulgaria
1.5%
0.2%
0%
0%
Luxembourg
0%
0%
0%
0%
B Portugal
75.9%
80.8%
82.6%
85.1%
Switzerland
55.1%
74.6%
78.8%
79.6%
Hungary
18.5%
6.3%
1.3%
0.1%
Faroe Islands
1.2%
0%
0%
0%
Latvia
0.4%
0%
0%
0%
Andorra
0%
0%
0%
0%
C Germany
93.7%
99.2%
99.9%
99.8%
Northern Ireland
26.5%
26.9%
33.8%
38.9%
Czech Republic
12.7%
4.8%
4.8%
2.5%
Norway
3.3%
0.9%
0.1%
0%
Azerbaijan
0.4%
0.3%
0%
0%
San Marino
0%
0%
0%
0%
D Wales
44.8%
71.5%
62.4%
56.7%
Ireland
38.3%
40.9%
56.5%
54.3%
Serbia
33.9%
24.4%
20.6%
22.1%
Austria
25.8%
7.3%
7.5%
8.1%
Georgia
2.9%
0%
0%
0%
Moldova
0%
0%
0%
0%
E Poland
80.8%
92.4%
97.9%
99.4%
Romania
24%
13.6%
5.2%
6.7%
Denmark
15.5%
11.1%
5%
4.7%
Montenegro
9%
5.3%
5.6%
1.6%
Armenia
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
0%
Kazakhstan
0.9%
0.1%
0%
0%
F England
72%
93.1%
96.4%
92.5%
Slovakia
25.3%
19.5%
21.7%
29.3%
Slovenia
24.9%
17.5%
10.5%
8.5%
Scotland
11.5%
2.7%
2.9%
2.2%
Lithuania
1.9%
0.5%
0%
0%
Malta
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
G Italy
70.9%
74.8%
80.6%
85.8%
Spain
64.9%
72.6%
77.7%
82.2%
Israel
11.9%
11.3%
5.8%
0.4%
Albania
6%
0.4%
0%
0%
FYR Macedonia
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
Liechtenstein
0%
0%
0%
0%
H Belgium
90.4%
95.8%
95.3%
97.4%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
37.1%
34.1%
32.4%
20.2%
Greece
13.6%
13.3%
15.7%
21.1%
Cyprus
1.9%
0%
0%
0.1%
Estonia
0.7%
0%
0%
0%
Gibraltar
0%
0%
0%
0%
I Croatia
51.7%
69.7%
78.6%
49.9%
Iceland
39.2%
39.7%
41.8%
57.6%
Ukraine
27.7%
24.3%
14%
19.1%
Turkey
26.1%
14.3%
14.3%
17.6%
Finland
2%
0%
0%
0%
Kosovo
0%
0%
0%
0%
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