English Premier League Season Simulation


The English Premier League season consists of a campaign that runs between August and May every year. There are twenty teams in the top flight of English football, and they each play in a home-and-home series against every other team in the league. Thus, each team plays nineteen home games and nineteen away games every season for a total of 38 games.

Champions League and Europa League invitations are divided up among the different European associations based on the overall strength of that association within Europe. Currently, the English Premier League is granted three automatic bids to Champions League group play, one spot for Champions League qualification, and one spot to Europa league. These spots go to the teams that finish in the top five of the table at the end of the season. Further, the three teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to the English second-tier (the Championship league).

Below, we simulated out the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: EPL Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

November 16th, 2017: We are eleven games in and Manchester City is absolutlely dominating the league. They’ve now jumped to a 76.5% chance to lift the trophy at the end of the season.

August 9th, 2017: We ran our preseason simulation. Though Manchester City is the odds on favorite in the sportsbooks. Our early numbers show Chelsea with the edge to win the league.

Original Posting (for the 2017/2018 season): 8/9/2017
Last simulation was done on 11/16/2017.

EPL Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Manchester City
10
0
1
31
27.8
4.4
5.8
89.2
Tottenham
7
2
2
23
24.1
6.7
7.2
79.5
Chelsea
7
3
1
22
23.7
7.9
6.4
77.5
Manchester United
7
2
2
23
22.6
7.5
8
75.7
Liverpool
5
2
4
19
20
8.2
9.7
69.8
Arsenal
6
4
1
19
20
10.8
7.2
67.2
Burnley
5
2
4
19
13.4
13.3
11.3
51.5
Newcastle Utd
4
5
2
14
14
15.4
8.5
50.7
Brighton
4
4
3
15
13.6
14.6
9.9
50.6
Leicester
3
4
4
13
13.1
14.6
10.3
49.6
Everton
3
6
2
11
12.7
16.8
8.6
46.5
Watford
4
4
3
15
12.2
16.5
9.2
45.9
Southampton
3
4
4
13
10.6
17
10.5
42.2
Stoke City
3
5
3
12
10.8
17.8
9.4
41.8
Bournemouth
3
7
1
10
11.2
19.4
7.3
41
Huddersfield
4
4
3
15
10.4
18.7
9
40.1
West Brom
2
5
4
10
9.1
18.3
10.6
38
West Ham
2
6
3
9
8.3
20.6
9.1
34
Swansea
2
7
2
8
8.3
21.7
8.1
32.9
Crystal Palace
1
9
1
4
7.3
23.1
7.6
29.4

EPL Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team Premiership Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Manchester City
76.5%
99.5%
0.5%
0%
Tottenham
11.3%
87.8%
8.6%
0%
Chelsea
5.9%
81.8%
13%
0%
Manchester United
4.8%
74%
15%
0%
Liverpool
0.7%
34.2%
31.4%
0%
Arsenal
0.8%
21.5%
26.2%
0%
Burnley
0%
0.3%
1.4%
0.6%
Newcastle Utd
0%
0.4%
1.4%
1.1%
Brighton
0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.3%
Leicester
0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
Everton
0%
0%
0.1%
5.1%
Watford
0%
0%
0.2%
4.4%
Southampton
0%
0.1%
0.1%
10.5%
Stoke City
0%
0%
0.1%
14.4%
Bournemouth
0%
0%
0.1%
16.5%
Huddersfield
0%
0%
0%
19.7%
West Brom
0%
0%
0%
29.4%
West Ham
0%
0%
0%
56.2%
Swansea
0%
0%
0%
61.3%
Crystal Palace
0%
0%
0%
78.7%