English Premier League Season Simulation


The English Premier League season consists of a campaign that runs between August and May every year. There are twenty teams in the top flight of English football, and they each play in a home-and-home series against every other team in the league. Thus, each team plays nineteen home games and nineteen away games every season for a total of 38 games.

Champions League and Europa League invitations are divided up among the different European associations based on the overall strength of that association within Europe. Currently, the English Premier League is granted three automatic bids to Champions League group play, one spot for Champions League qualification, and one spot to Europa league. These spots go to the teams that finish in the top five of the table at the end of the season. Further, the three teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to the English second-tier (the Championship league).

Below, we simulated out the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: EPL Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

January 9th, 2017: With twenty matchdays completed, Chelsea has set themselves on top of the table with sixteen wins, one draw, and only three losses. Before the season started, we gave Chelsea a 20.7% chance to win the league, but now we give them just over a 60% chance to win.

February 6th, 2017: Chelsea continues their domination of the English Premier League with another three wins and a draw since our last update. They are now up nine points on Tottenham and with fourteen matchdays left, the other top teams are running out of time to catch them. What’s much less clear is what is taking place at the bottom of the table as there are six teams that have between 19 and 21 points. Crystal Palace has a 75.8% chance to be relegated, but no other team is currently over 60%.

March 10th, 2017: It’s going to take a small miracle at this point to keep Chelsea from winning the league as they hold a ten point lead with eleven games to play. The real battle is still taking place in the relegation zone. Crystal Palace, which had the highest odds of relegation in the last update, won two straight and now has only a 53% chance of relegation.

April 21st, 2017: Nearing the end of the season, Manchester United is running out of time to earn it’s way into the Champions League through league play (though it still can be winning Europa League). Middlesbrough and Sunderland have all but stamped their ticket back to the the Championship, and Chelsea still has a 91.5% chance to win the league.

Original Posting: 6/27/2016
Last simulation was done on 4/21/2017.

EPL Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Chelsea
24
5
3
75
28
5.8
4.2
88.2
Tottenham
21
3
8
71
24.2
4.4
9.4
82.1
Manchester City
19
6
7
64
22.9
6.9
8.2
76.9
Liverpool
19
5
9
66
22
6
10.1
76
Manchester United
16
3
12
60
19.2
5.2
13.6
71.1
Arsenal
17
8
6
57
20.7
9.8
7.6
69.5
Everton
16
8
9
57
18.3
9.6
10.2
65
Southampton
11
13
7
40
13.4
15.8
8.8
49.1
West Brom
11
14
8
41
12.3
16.5
9.2
46.1
Leicester
10
15
7
37
12.2
17.5
8.4
44.8
Stoke City
10
14
9
39
11.5
16.2
10.3
44.8
Bournemouth
10
15
8
38
11.9
16.9
9.3
44.8
Watford
11
14
7
40
12.1
17.6
8.2
44.7
Burnley
10
17
6
36
11.9
18.9
7.3
42.8
West Ham
10
16
7
37
11.3
18.5
8.2
42.1
Crystal Palace
10
17
5
35
11.4
20.4
6.3
40.3
Hull City
8
19
6
30
9.4
21.3
7.3
35.4
Swansea
8
21
4
28
9.3
23.5
5.2
33
Middlesbrough
4
16
12
24
5.3
19.2
13.5
29.5
Sunderland
5
21
6
21
6.7
24
7.4
27.4

EPL Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team Premiership Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Chelsea
91.5%
100%
0%
0%
Tottenham
8.3%
99.6%
0.4%
0%
Manchester City
0.1%
86.6%
11.7%
0%
Liverpool
0.1%
87.1%
11.1%
0%
Manchester United
0%
17.8%
40.1%
0%
Arsenal
0%
8.5%
32.7%
0%
Everton
0%
0.4%
4%
0%
Southampton
0%
0%
0%
0%
West Brom
0%
0%
0%
0%
Leicester
0%
0%
0%
0%
Stoke City
0%
0%
0%
0%
Bournemouth
0%
0%
0%
0%
Watford
0%
0%
0%
0%
Burnley
0%
0%
0%
0%
West Ham
0%
0%
0%
0.2%
Crystal Palace
0%
0%
0%
1%
Hull City
0%
0%
0%
32.5%
Swansea
0%
0%
0%
73.4%
Middlesbrough
0%
0%
0%
95.1%
Sunderland
0%
0%
0%
97.8%
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