French Ligue 1 Season Simulation


france ligue 1 psgThe French Ligue 1 is made up of twenty teams. Similarly to the other top flight football leagues, each play in a home-and-home series against each other for a total of 38 games in a season.

For the 2016/2017 campaign, France has a UEFA country coefficient that has them ranked sixth. This coefficient is used to determine how many bids each country earns for Champions League and Europa League invitations. Currently, the French Ligue 1 is granted two automatic bids to Champions League group play, one spot for Champions League qualification, and two spots to Europa league qualification.

The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2. The team that finishes in the 18th position will play against the 3rd place team in Ligue 2 to determine who will get to play in Ligue 1 in the following year.

Below, we simulated the Ligue 1 season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: Ligue 1 Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of the English Premier League, Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

February 13th, 2017: 25 matches into the Ligue 1 campaign, Monaco continues to impress and is a legitimate contender for the league crown. Before the season started, we gave them only a 2.4% chance to win the league, but now give them a 41% chance. Even though they are three points down on Monaco, we still have PSG as the favorite to win Ligue 1 at 57.4%. Nice is still a long shot at 1.8%, but they have some work to do in catching the favorites.

March 17th, 2017: It is still pretty much a dead heat as to who wins the Ligue 1 title. PSG has already played Monaco twice in the Ligue so Monaco does control their own destiny.

April 26th, 2017: While not yet a foregone conclusion, Monaco is now in the driver’s seat to win the Ligue. Going into today, both PSG and Monaco have 80 points, but Monaco has four games to play while PSG only has three. Further, Monaco has a major advantage in goal differential which would put them on top of the table over PSG should they finish with the same amount of points. On the relegation end, Lorient has been a huge surprise as they have won four of their last five games in league play. In just over a month, they have gone from almost a 97% chance of relegation to a 32.4% chance today.

Original Posting: 6/29/2016
Last simulation was done on 4/26/2017.

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Monaco
25
3
5
80
28.1
3.8
6.1
90.4
Paris SG
25
4
5
80
27.9
4.4
5.7
89.4
Nice
21
2
11
74
22.2
3.8
12
78.7
Lyon
17
13
4
55
19.1
13.9
5
62.4
Bordeaux
15
9
10
55
16.5
10.4
11.1
60.5
Marseille
14
10
10
52
15.8
11.2
11
58.4
St Etienne
11
9
13
46
12.4
11.2
14.4
51.5
Guingamp
12
14
8
44
13.9
15
9.1
50.8
Nantes
12
13
9
45
13.2
14.7
10.1
49.7
Rennes
10
10
14
44
11.3
11.6
15.1
48.9
Toulouse
10
12
12
42
11.6
13.4
13
47.8
Lille
11
16
7
40
12.4
17.6
8
45.2
Montpellier
10
15
9
39
11.4
16.5
10.1
44.4
Angers
11
17
6
39
12.2
18.7
7.1
43.7
Metz
9
16
9
36
10.1
17.8
10
40.5
Lorient
10
20
4
34
11
21.9
5.1
38.2
Dijon
7
16
11
32
8.4
17.6
12.1
37.2
Caen
9
19
6
33
9.9
21.2
6.9
36.5
Nancy
8
18
8
32
9
19.8
9.1
36.2
Bastia
6
17
11
29
7.2
19
11.9
33.4

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Monaco
67.7%
100%
0%
0%
Paris SG
32.3%
100%
0%
0%
Nice
0%
100%
0%
0%
Lyon
0%
0%
95.7%
0%
Bordeaux
0%
0%
67%
0%
Marseille
0%
0%
36.8%
0%
St Etienne
0%
0%
0.5%
0%
Guingamp
0%
0%
0%
0%
Nantes
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rennes
0%
0%
0%
0%
Toulouse
0%
0%
0%
0%
Lille
0%
0%
0%
0%
Montpellier
0%
0%
0%
0.1%
Angers
0%
0%
0%
0%
Metz
0%
0%
0%
9.8%
Lorient
0%
0%
0%
34.2%
Dijon
0%
0%
0%
39.5%
Caen
0%
0%
0%
65.1%
Nancy
0%
0%
0%
58.2%
Bastia
0%
0%
0%
93.1%

The relegation probabilities above do not include the chances of losing to the Ligue 2 team in the Relegation playoffs if the team finishes 18th in the table.

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Probability to win Title Over Time

Team Probability to Win League
Preseason Oct 26 Dec 28 Feb 13 Mar 17 Apr 26
Paris SG
94.8%
92%
64%
57.2%
55.3%
32.3%
Monaco
2.4%
6.6%
18.3%
41%
44%
67.7%
Lyon
1.6%
0.2%
2.4%
0%
0%
0%
St Etienne
0.5%
0.2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marseille
0.3%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Lille
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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