French Ligue 1 Season Simulation


france ligue 1 psgThe French Ligue 1 is made up of twenty teams. Similarly to the other top flight football leagues, each play in a home-and-home series against each other for a total of 38 games in a season.

For the 2016/2017 campaign, France has a UEFA country coefficient that has them ranked sixth. This coefficient is used to determine how many bids each country earns for Champions League and Europa League invitations. Currently, the French Ligue 1 is granted two automatic bids to Champions League group play, one spot for Champions League qualification, and one spot to Europa league.

The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2. The team that finishes in the 18th position will play against the 3rd place team in Ligue 2 to determine who will get to play in Ligue 1 in the following year.

Below, we simulated the Ligue 1 season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: Ligue 1 Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of the English Premier League, Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

February 13th, 2017: 25 matches into the Ligue 1 campaign, Monaco continues to impress and is a legitimate contender for the league crown. Before the season started, we gave them only a 2.4% chance to win the league, but now give them a 41% chance. Even though they are three points down on Monaco, we still have PSG as the favorite to win Ligue 1 at 57.4%. Nice is still a long shot at 1.8%, but they have some work to do in catching the favorites.

March 17th, 2017: It is still pretty much a dead heat as to who wins the Ligue 1 title. PSG has already played Monaco twice in the Ligue so Monaco does control their own destiny.

Original Posting: 6/29/2016
Last simulation was done on 3/17/2017.

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Paris SG
20
4
5
65
26.6
4.9
6.5
86.4
Monaco
21
3
5
68
26
4.8
7.2
85.2
Nice
18
2
9
63
21.7
4.9
11.4
76.4
Lyon
16
10
2
50
20.8
12.8
4.4
66.9
Marseille
13
10
6
45
16.5
13
8.5
58.1
Bordeaux
11
8
10
43
14.5
11.1
12.4
55.9
St Etienne
10
8
11
41
13.4
11.2
13.5
53.6
Guingamp
10
11
8
38
13.5
14.1
10.4
50.9
Toulouse
9
11
9
36
12.5
14.2
11.3
48.9
Rennes
9
9
11
38
11.7
12.9
13.5
48.5
Nantes
10
12
7
37
12.5
16
9.5
47.1
Montpellier
8
12
9
33
11.4
15.3
11.3
45.4
Angers
10
13
6
36
12.2
17.3
8.5
45.2
Lille
9
14
6
33
12.1
17.3
8.5
44.9
Metz
8
12
8
32
10.7
16.8
10.5
42.6
Caen
9
15
5
32
11.3
19.5
7.2
41.1
Dijon
6
13
10
28
9.3
16.3
12.4
40.2
Nancy
7
15
7
28
9.8
18.8
9.5
38.7
Bastia
5
14
10
25
7.6
18.1
12.2
35.1
Lorient
6
19
4
22
8.4
23.4
6.2
31.4

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Paris SG
55.3%
100%
0%
0%
Monaco
44%
100%
0%
0%
Nice
0.7%
93.8%
6.1%
0%
Lyon
0%
6.2%
87.3%
0%
Marseille
0%
0.1%
4.6%
0%
Bordeaux
0%
0%
1.4%
0%
St Etienne
0%
0%
0.5%
0%
Guingamp
0%
0%
0.1%
0.1%
Toulouse
0%
0%
0%
0.4%
Rennes
0%
0%
0%
0.2%
Nantes
0%
0%
0%
0.8%
Montpellier
0%
0%
0%
2.7%
Angers
0%
0%
0%
2.8%
Lille
0%
0%
0%
3.4%
Metz
0%
0%
0%
15.5%
Caen
0%
0%
0%
23.3%
Dijon
0%
0%
0%
26.2%
Nancy
0%
0%
0%
46.8%
Bastia
0%
0%
0%
81%
Lorient
0%
0%
0%
96.8%

The relegation probabilities above do not include the chances of losing to the Ligue 2 team in the Relegation playoffs if the team finishes 18th in the table.

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Probability to win Title Over Time

Team Probability to Win League
Preseason Oct 26 Dec 28 Feb 13 Mar 17
Paris SG
94.8%
92%
64%
57.2%
55.3%
Monaco
2.4%
6.6%
18.3%
41%
44%
Lyon
1.6%
0.2%
2.4%
0%
0%
St Etienne
0.5%
0.2%
0%
0%
0%
Marseille
0.3%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
Lille
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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