German Bundesliga Season Simulation


German BundesligaThe German Bundesliga consists of a season that runs from August until May every year. There are eighteen teams in the top flight of German football, and they each play in a home-and-home series against every other team in the league. Each team plays seventeen home games and seventeen away games every season for a total of 34 games.

Champions League and Europa League invitations are divided up among the different European associations based on the overall strength of that association within Europe. Currently, Germany is granted six spots in the European leagues. The top three teams at the end of the Bundesliga season earn bids to the group stage of the Champions League. The fourth place team earns a bid to the qualifying stage of Champions League. The fifth place team earns a bid to the group stage of Europa League and the sixth place team makes Europa League qualifying.

The teams that finish in the bottom two of the table are relegated from the Bundesliga. The team that finishes in the place third from the bottom faces off against a team in the second division to determine who gets to play in the league the following year. For simplicity, the percentages of relegation include teams that will fall in the bottom three of the table and do not take into account the probability of the 16th place team winning the play in to stay in the top-tier league.

Below, we simulated out the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: Bundesliga Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

February 15th, 2017: Every team has played exactly twenty games and with fourteen games left, Bayern Munich looks unstoppable. Holding a seven point lead on RB Leipzig, Bayern is going to be very tough to catch down the stretch and we now give them a 98.5% chance to claim the Bundesliga title. At this point there are only two teams left that have any chance, the aforementioned RB Leipzig (1.2%) and Dortmond who is a complete longshot.

Original Posting: 7/20/2016
Last simulation was done on 2/15/2017.

German Bundesliga Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Bayern Munich
15
1
4
49
24.8
2.9
6.3
80.7
RB Leipzig
13
4
3
42
19.7
7.8
6.6
65.5
Dortmund
9
4
7
34
17.7
6.7
9.6
62.8
Hoffenheim
8
2
10
34
14.1
6.8
13.2
55.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
10
5
5
35
15.4
10.4
8.2
54.5
FC Koln
8
4
8
32
13.3
9
11.7
51.6
Hertha Berlin
10
7
3
33
14.7
12.7
6.6
50.7
Bayer Leverkusen
8
9
3
27
14
13.7
6.3
48.3
Schalke
7
9
4
25
12.7
13.7
7.5
45.7
SC Freiburg
9
9
2
29
13.5
15.2
5.3
45.7
B. Monchengladbach
7
8
5
26
12.2
13.3
8.4
45.1
1. FSV Mainz 05
7
9
4
25
11.5
15
7.5
42.1
Wolfsburg
6
10
4
22
10.9
15.9
7.2
40
FC Augsburg
6
8
6
24
9.8
14.8
9.4
38.9
Hamburger SV
5
11
4
19
9
17.7
7.3
34.3
SV Werder Bremen
4
12
4
16
8.2
18.7
7.1
31.6
Ingolstadt
4
13
3
15
7.8
19.7
6.6
29.9
Darmstadt
3
14
3
12
6.2
21.5
6.3
24.8

German Bundesliga Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Bayern Munich
98.6%
100%
0%
0%
RB Leipzig
1.2%
95.8%
3.9%
0%
Dortmund
0.2%
92%
6.7%
0%
Hoffenheim
0%
42.7%
35.4%
0%
Eintracht Frankfurt
0%
30.5%
39.8%
0%
FC Koln
0%
16.3%
34.2%
0%
Hertha Berlin
0%
11.8%
27.9%
0%
Bayer Leverkusen
0%
5.2%
20.1%
0.1%
Schalke
0%
2.1%
11.5%
0.7%
SC Freiburg
0%
1.5%
7.6%
0.6%
B. Monchengladbach
0%
1.7%
8.5%
0.8%
1. FSV Mainz 05
0%
0.2%
3%
3.7%
Wolfsburg
0%
0.1%
1%
7.5%
FC Augsburg
0%
0%
0.6%
9.9%
Hamburger SV
0%
0%
0%
40.7%
SV Werder Bremen
0%
0%
0%
63.5%
Ingolstadt
0%
0%
0%
76.1%
Darmstadt
0%
0%
0%
96.4%
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