German Bundesliga Season Simulation


German BundesligaThe German Bundesliga consists of a season that runs from August until May every year. There are eighteen teams in the top flight of German football, and they each play in a home-and-home series against every other team in the league. Each team plays seventeen home games and seventeen away games every season for a total of 34 games.

Champions League and Europa League invitations are divided up among the different European associations based on the overall strength of that association within Europe. Currently, Germany is granted six spots in the European leagues. The top three teams at the end of the Bundesliga season earn bids to the group stage of the Champions League. The fourth place team earns a bid to the qualifying stage of Champions League. The fifth place team earns a bid to the group stage of Europa League and the sixth place team makes Europa League qualifying.

The teams that finish in the bottom two of the table are relegated from the Bundesliga. The team that finishes in the place third from the bottom faces off against a team in the second division to determine who gets to play in the league the following year. For simplicity, the percentages of relegation include teams that will fall in the bottom three of the table and do not take into account the probability of the 16th place team winning the play in to stay in the top-tier league.

Below, we simulated out the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: Bundesliga Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

February 15th, 2017: Every team has played exactly twenty games and with fourteen games left, Bayern Munich looks unstoppable. Holding a seven point lead on RB Leipzig, Bayern is going to be very tough to catch down the stretch and we now give them a 98.5% chance to claim the Bundesliga title. At this point there are only two teams left that have any chance, the aforementioned RB Leipzig (1.2%) and Dortmond who is a complete longshot.

April 14th, 2017: This is likely our last simulation before the end of the season as there is almost nothing up for grabs in the last six games. Bayern has the league championship locked up and RB Leipzig, Dortmond and Hoffenheim have all but guaranteed spots in next year’s Champions League. There is some interesting stuff here if you are interested in the relegation battle.

Original Posting: 7/20/2016
Last simulation was done on 4/14/2017.

German Bundesliga Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Bayern Munich
21
2
5
68
25.6
2.6
5.9
82.6
RB Leipzig
18
6
4
58
20.4
8.1
5.5
66.7
Dortmund
14
6
8
50
18.1
6.8
9.1
63.3
Hoffenheim
13
3
12
51
15.7
5
13.3
60.3
Hertha Berlin
13
11
4
43
15.2
13.2
5.6
51.3
FC Koln
10
8
10
40
12.1
10.4
11.5
47.9
SC Freiburg
12
11
5
41
13.8
13.8
6.4
47.8
B. Monchengladbach
11
11
6
39
13.4
13.2
7.4
47.6
Schalke
10
11
7
37
12.6
12.8
8.5
46.5
Eintracht Frankfurt
10
10
8
38
11.9
12.8
9.4
45
SV Werder Bremen
10
12
6
36
12.3
14.3
7.4
44.2
Bayer Leverkusen
10
13
5
35
12.2
15.2
6.5
43.3
Hamburger SV
9
13
6
33
10.9
15.6
7.5
40.3
Wolfsburg
8
14
6
30
10
16.5
7.4
37.5
1. FSV Mainz 05
8
15
5
29
9.8
17.7
6.4
36
FC Augsburg
7
13
8
29
8.5
16.1
9.4
34.9
Ingolstadt
8
16
4
28
9.5
18.9
5.6
34.2
Darmstadt
4
21
3
15
5.3
24.4
4.4
20.2

German Bundesliga Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Bayern Munich
100%
100%
0%
0%
RB Leipzig
0%
100%
0%
0%
Dortmund
0%
99.5%
0.5%
0%
Hoffenheim
0%
97.7%
2.2%
0%
Hertha Berlin
0%
2%
71.1%
0%
FC Koln
0%
0.3%
34.6%
0%
SC Freiburg
0%
0.1%
25.4%
0%
B. Monchengladbach
0%
0.3%
26%
0%
Schalke
0%
0%
21.9%
0%
Eintracht Frankfurt
0%
0%
6.4%
0.1%
SV Werder Bremen
0%
0%
6.3%
0.2%
Bayer Leverkusen
0%
0%
5.3%
0.4%
Hamburger SV
0%
0%
0.3%
8.3%
Wolfsburg
0%
0%
0%
24.7%
1. FSV Mainz 05
0%
0%
0%
36.9%
FC Augsburg
0%
0%
0%
62.9%
Ingolstadt
0%
0%
0%
66.5%
Darmstadt
0%
0%
0%
100%
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