Spain La Liga Season Simulation


Spain La LigaSpain’s La Liga has been dominated by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade and this year should be no different. To open the season, we give Real Madrid a 54.78% chance of winning the league and Barcelona a 40.34% chance of winning the league. Atletico Madrid rounds out the top 3 with a 4.7% chance of winning the league and we only give a 0.2% chance to any other team.

Currently, Spain has UEFA’s highest team coefficient and thus gets 4 teams into Champions League and 2 teams into Europa league. These places are determined based on the final standings in the La Liga regular season.

Below, we simulated the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: La Liga Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

January 5th, 2017: Real Madrid is fifteen games into their season and have 11 wins, 4 draws, and no losses. This gives them a three point edge over Barcelona who have one extra game under their belt. We now give Real Madrid a 76.6% chance of winning the La Liga which is a 21% improvement over their odds at the beginning of the season. Barcelona is the only other team with a realistic shot at winning the league at 23.2%. Though there are still some odds out there in the books for Atletico Madrid and Sevilla to win the league, we give both a 0.1% chance or less.

February 21st, 2017: In the grand scheme of things, there really isn’t too much of a change since our last update back in January. Real Madrid is still the odds on favorite to win the league with a 75.5% chance to win. In Champions League qualifying, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla all but have their spots locked up. The relegation battle is heating up as Leganes, Gijon and Grandada appear to be fighting for the one spot that will keep them out of La Liga 2.

April 21st, 2017: With 32 games in the books, there isn’t too much left to chance in the La Liga. The closest battle is for the league title between Real Madrid and Barcelona, but Real Madrid has an extra game and has a 3 point advantage.

Original Posting: 7/28/2016
Last simulation was done on 4/21/2017.

Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Real Madrid
23
2
6
75
28.1
2.9
7.1
91.3
Barcelona
22
4
6
72
26.2
5
6.9
85.4
Atl. Madrid
19
5
8
65
22.6
6
9.4
77.1
Sevilla
18
6
8
62
21.4
7.5
9.1
73.2
Villarreal
15
8
9
54
17.6
10.9
10.5
63.3
Real Sociedad
16
12
4
52
18.5
14.2
5.4
60.8
Ath Bilbao
16
11
5
53
18
13.6
6.5
60.4
Eibar
14
10
8
50
16
12.6
9.4
57.5
Espanyol
13
9
10
49
14.7
11.8
11.5
55.6
Celta Vigo
13
13
5
44
15.8
15.5
6.7
54
Alaves
11
11
10
43
13.3
12.9
11.8
51.7
Valencia
11
14
7
40
13.7
16.6
8.6
49.9
Las Palmas
10
14
8
38
12
16.4
9.6
45.5
Betis
9
16
7
34
10.5
18.9
8.6
40
Malaga
8
15
9
33
9.5
18
10.5
39
Dep. La Coruna
7
15
10
31
8.7
17.8
11.5
37.6
Leganes
6
17
9
27
7.7
19.6
10.7
33.7
Gijon
5
20
7
22
6.7
22.7
8.6
28.8
Granada CF
4
20
8
20
5.5
23.1
9.3
26
Osasuna
3
21
8
17
4.3
24.5
9.2
22

Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team Win League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Real Madrid
88.9%
100%
0%
0%
Barcelona
11.1%
100%
0%
0%
Atl. Madrid
0%
99.6%
0.4%
0%
Sevilla
0%
97.6%
2.4%
0%
Villarreal
0%
2.4%
83.6%
0%
Real Sociedad
0%
0.3%
47%
0%
Ath Bilbao
0%
0.1%
45.1%
0%
Eibar
0%
0%
14.4%
0%
Espanyol
0%
0%
4.3%
0%
Celta Vigo
0%
0%
2.5%
0%
Alaves
0%
0%
0.2%
0%
Valencia
0%
0%
0.1%
0%
Las Palmas
0%
0%
0%
0%
Betis
0%
0%
0%
0.4%
Malaga
0%
0%
0%
0.2%
Dep. La Coruna
0%
0%
0%
0.6%
Leganes
0%
0%
0%
12.9%
Gijon
0%
0%
0%
88.6%
Granada CF
0%
0%
0%
97.4%
Osasuna
0%
0%
0%
99.9%

Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title Over Time

Team Probability to Win League
Preseason Oct 26 Jan 5 Feb 21 Apr 21
Real Madrid
54.8%
55.9%
76.6%
75.5%
88.9%
Barcelona
40.3%
38%
23.2%
24.2%
11.1%
Atl. Madrid
4.7%
5.7%
0.1%
0%
0%
Sevilla
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.2%
0%
Valencia
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Villarreal
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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