2016-2017 UEFA Champions League Simulation


champions league final 2016Original Posting: 6/21/2016

The 2016-2017 Champions League season runs from the end of June in 2016 to the early summer of 2017. We recently have added data to account for every league in Europe, so we can give predictions for every single Champions League game.

We programmed all the rules of the Champions League and simulated every pair of games 5,000 times. The UEFA Champions League uses the Away goals rule, so our simulations are based upon these standards. In our simulations, we also offer the probabilities for method of victory within each two leg grouping. Also note that if a team wins by away goals in extra time then we set their method of victory as “Away Goals”.

To set the standard for our simulations, we use the ratings from our European Football Rankings page. You can read more about the methodology of these rankings here, but essentially, we take into account the scores of all prior games to give teams a rating. It is important to note that these ratings are adjusted based on whether the game is played at home or away. For all of our individual game predictions, go here.

We will continue to update this page throughout the qualification, group stage, and playoff process.

UEFA Champions League – Round of 16

The first leg of the Round of 16 will be played between the 14th and 22th of February and the second leg will be played on the 7th and 15th of March.

Probability to Advance to Quarterfinals

# Team To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Benfica 32.1% 18.6% 11.3% 0.72% 1.48% 6.2%
Dortmund 67.9% 61.0% 0% 5.32% 1.54% 93.8%
2 Barcelona 4.2% 2.6% 0% 1.06% 0.56% 77.1%
Paris SG 95.8% 92.7% 1.8% 0.58% 0.62% 22.9%
3 Arsenal 0.7% 0.14% 0.36% 0.08% 0.1% 26.5%
Bayern Munich 99.3% 99.1% 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% 73.5%
4 Napoli 7.7% 3.6% 3.06% 0.58% 0.42% 16.1%
Real Madrid 92.3% 89.8% 1.36% 0.76% 0.4% 83.9%
5 Atl. Madrid 98.8% 95.6% 2.98% 0.08% 0.06% 66.8%
Bayer Leverkusen 1.2% 1.16% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 33.2%
6 Manchester City 84% 83.9% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 67.7%
Monaco 16% 5.8% 10.1% 0.02% 0% 32.3%
7 FC Porto 2.5% 0.68% 1.22% 0.26% 0.34% 25.7%
Juventus 97.5% 96.2% 0% 0.86% 0.4% 74.3%
8 Leicester 25.9% 13.3% 9.58% 1.28% 1.74% 26.5%
Sevilla 74.1% 68.1% 2.58% 2.28% 1.1% 73.5%

UEFA Champions League – Quarterfinals

The first leg of the Quarterfinals will be played on the 11th and 12th of April and the second leg will be played on the 18th and 19th of April.

UEFA Champions League – Semifinals

The first leg of the Semifinals will be played on the 2nd and 3rd of May and the second leg will be played on the 9th and 10th of May.

UEFA Champions League – Finals

The Champions League Final is set for June 3rd, 2017 at National Stadium of Wales.

UEFA Champions League – Group Stage

The Group stage will run from September 13th, 2016 through December 7th, 2016.

Final Group Stage Tables

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Arsenal
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Paris SG
3
0
3
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
Ludogorets
0
3
3
3
Transfer to Europa League
Basel
0
4
2
2
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Napoli
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Benfica
2
2
2
8
Advance to Knockout Stage
Besiktas
1
1
4
7
Transfer to Europa League
Dyn. Kiev
1
3
2
5
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Barcelona
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Manchester City
2
1
3
9
Advance to Knockout Stage
B. Monchengladbach
1
3
2
5
Transfer to Europa League
Celtic
0
3
3
3
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Atl. Madrid
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Bayern Munich
4
2
0
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
FK Rostov
1
3
2
5
Transfer to Europa League
PSV
0
4
2
2
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Monaco
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
4
10
Advance to Knockout Stage
Tottenham
2
3
1
7
Transfer to Europa League
CSKA Moscow
0
3
3
3
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Dortmund
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Real Madrid
3
0
3
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
Legia
1
4
1
4
Transfer to Europa League
Sporting
1
5
0
3
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Leicester
4
1
1
13
Advance to Knockout Stage
FC Porto
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
FC Copenhagen
2
1
3
9
Transfer to Europa League
Club Brugge KV
0
6
0
0
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Juventus
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
Sevilla
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Lyon
2
2
2
8
Transfer to Europa League
D. Zagreb
0
6
0
0

Original Projections Before Any Games Played

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Paris SG
3.7
1.1
1.2
12.4
62.3%
30.1%
Arsenal
3.1
1.6
1.3
10.6
32.3%
48.1%
Basel
1.7
3
1.3
6.5
4.5%
16.9%
Ludogorets
0.9
3.9
1.2
3.9
0.9%
4.9%
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Napoli
3.2
1.4
1.4
11
59.1%
23.8%
Dyn. Kiev
2.4
2.1
1.5
8.6
22.6%
34.4%
Besiktas
1.8
2.7
1.5
6.9
10.2%
22.1%
Benfica
1.7
2.9
1.5
6.5
8.1%
19.7%
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Barcelona
4.3
0.8
0.9
13.9
78.5%
19%
Manchester City
3.1
1.8
1.1
10.3
17.9%
58.2%
B. Monchengladbach
2
2.8
1.2
7.1
3.4%
21%
Celtic
0.6
4.5
0.9
2.6
0.1%
1.8%
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Bayern Munich
3.9
1.1
1.1
12.7
54.8%
40.5%
Atl. Madrid
3.6
1.2
1.2
12
43.3%
48.9%
PSV
1.4
3.4
1.2
5.4
1.5%
8%
FK Rostov
0.8
4
1.1
3.7
0.4%
2.6%
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Bayer Leverkusen
2.6
1.9
1.5
9.3
37.1%
28.2%
Tottenham
2.5
2
1.5
9
32.2%
29.2%
CSKA Moscow
1.9
2.6
1.5
7.3
15.5%
20.7%
Monaco
1.9
2.5
1.5
7.3
15.3%
21.9%
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Real Madrid
4.6
0.6
0.8
14.7
85.6%
14.1%
Dortmund
3.1
1.8
1.1
10.4
13.3%
70.7%
Sporting
1.4
3.4
1.1
5.4
1%
11.7%
Legia
0.8
4.1
1.1
3.5
0.1%
3.5%
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Leicester
3.1
1.5
1.4
10.7
47.5%
30.8%
FC Porto
2.8
1.7
1.5
10
35.4%
35.7%
Club Brugge KV
2.1
2.4
1.5
7.9
14.9%
26.6%
FC Copenhagen
1.1
3.6
1.4
4.6
2.2%
6.9%
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Juventus
3.5
1.1
1.4
11.8
61.8%
27.7%
Sevilla
2.8
1.8
1.4
9.8
29%
43.4%
Lyon
1.7
2.8
1.5
6.7
6.7%
19.9%
D. Zagreb
1.2
3.5
1.3
4.9
2.4%
9%

UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – First Round

The Champions League first qualifying round consists of the eight champions that come from the eight associations at the bottom of the UEFA standings. The first leg of games take place on June 28th, 2016 and the second leg of games take place on July 5th, 2016.

The table below was updated on July 3rd, 2016 to account for the results of the first leg of matches.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Alashkert 71.7% 68.3% 0% 2.16% 1.24% 60.5%
FC Santa Coloma 28.3% 12.1% 14.5% 0.54% 1.04% 39.5%
2 Flora 82.5% 74.8% 4.4% 2.26% 0.96% 89.3%
Lincoln Red Imps 17.5% 10.6% 5% 1% 0.82% 10.7%
3 TNS 97.7% 96.6% 0.36% 0.64% 0.1% 97.7%
Tre Penne 2.3% 0.74% 1.2% 0.04% 0.28% 2.3%
4 B36 Torshavn 33% 27.4% 0% 3.34% 2.2% 90.9%
Valletta 67% 48.3% 14.1% 2.1% 2.34% 9.1%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Second Round

The second qualifying round consists of the four winners from Round 1 and the thirty champions of the UEFA leagues that are ranked 16 to 45. The first leg of this round will be played on the 12th and 13th of July and the second leg will be played on the 19th and 20th of July.

The table below has been updated to account for the first leg of games that have been played.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Legia Poland 81.2% 66.1% 9.28% 3.28% 2.5% 79.2%
Zrinjski Bosnia & Herzegovina 18.8% 11.8% 3.5% 1.08% 2.36% 20.8%
2 Alashkert Armenia 8.9% 5.36% 0% 1.72% 1.84% 34.1%
Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia 91.1% 83.4% 4.68% 1.3% 1.7% 65.9%
3 Dudelange Luxembourg 9.3% 5.6% 0% 1.66% 2% 38.5%
Qarabag Azerbaijan 90.7% 83.7% 3.5% 1.5% 1.96% 61.5%
4 H. Beer Sheva Israel 62.7% 62.2% 0.06% 0.2% 0.22% 61.9%
Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova 37.3% 15.2% 21.2% 0.3% 0.4% 38.1%
5 BATE Belarus 96.1% 91.4% 2.36% 1.16% 1.14% 76.1%
SJK Finland 3.9% 2.34% 0% 0.72% 0.8% 23.9%
6 Celtic Scotland 82.7% 79.4% 0% 2.64% 0.62% 98.5%
Lincoln Red Imps Gibraltar 17.3% 8.38% 8.02% 0.32% 0.6% 1.5%
7 APOEL Cyprus 71.1% 68.1% 0% 2.08% 0.9% 76.3%
TNS Wales 28.9% 13.3% 13.7% 0.66% 1.16% 23.7%
8 FK Crvena zvezda Serbia 99.2% 96.9% 1.42% 0.68% 0.2% 97.7%
Valletta Malta 0.8% 0.48% 0.12% 0.02% 0.14% 2.3%
9 FK Liepaja Latvia 4.8% 3.68% 0% 0.32% 0.78% 6.5%
Salzburg Austria 95.2% 87.9% 5.38% 1.38% 0.52% 93.5%
10 D. Zagreb Croatia 91.1% 82.2% 6% 1.76% 1.12% 63.7%
Vardar FYR Macedonia 8.9% 5.24% 1.68% 0.84% 1.14% 36.3%
11 Norrkoping Sweden 11.1% 4% 5.94% 0.6% 0.58% 27.6%
Rosenborg Norway 88.9% 86.6% 0.84% 0.78% 0.62% 72.4%
12 FC Astana Kazakhstan 75.7% 71.9% 0% 2.42% 1.4% 82.1%
Zalgiris Lithuania 24.3% 10.2% 12.4% 0.68% 0.92% 17.9%
13 Ludogorets Bulgaria 99.3% 97.9% 0.64% 0.44% 0.22% 95.2%
Mladost Podgorica Montenegro 0.7% 0.26% 0% 0.08% 0.38% 4.8%
14 Crusaders Northern Ireland 0.2% 0.06% 0.18% 0% 0% 10.2%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 99.8% 99.7% 0% 0.04% 0.02% 89.8%
15 Ferencvaros Hungary 79.1% 64.4% 8.74% 3.54% 2.4% 77.7%
Partizani Albania 20.9% 13.6% 3.9% 1.18% 2.18% 22.3%
16 O. Ljubljana Slovenia 3.9% 3.82% 0.04% 0% 0.04% 27.9%
Trencin Slovakia 96.1% 86.5% 9.48% 0.04% 0.02% 72.1%
17 Dundalk Ireland 53% 40.4% 6.38% 3.32% 2.82% 72.2%
Hafnarfjordur Iceland 47% 31.4% 9.62% 3.22% 2.8% 27.8%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Third Round

The third qualifying round consists of the thirty winners from Round 2, the three champions from associations ranked 13 through 15, nine runners-up from associations ranked 7 through 15 and the second runner-up from the association ranked 6. The first leg of this round will be played on the 26th and 27th of July and the second leg will be played on the 2nd and 3rd of August.

This table has been updated to account for the results of the first leg.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 BATE Belarus 71.3% 53.4% 12.7% 2.52% 2.62% 57.3%
Dundalk Ireland 28.7% 22.9% 0% 3.16% 2.54% 42.7%
2 FK Crvena zvezda Serbia 78.2% 57.8% 17.6% 1.68% 0.96% 60.4%
Ludogorets Bulgaria 21.8% 18.8% 1.38% 0.68% 0.98% 39.6%
3 Partizani Albania 3% 0.76% 1.96% 0.08% 0.22% 4.2%
Salzburg Austria 97% 95.7% 0% 0.98% 0.26% 95.8%
4 Sparta Prague Czech Republic 49.6% 37.9% 5.72% 3.32% 2.62% 71.1%
Steaua Bucuresti Romania 50.4% 33.4% 10.9% 2.64% 3.36% 28.9%
5 Plzen Czech Republic 52.3% 28.9% 18.6% 1.88% 2.78% 58.2%
Qarabag Azerbaijan 47.7% 42.5% 0% 2.7% 2.52% 41.8%
6 Anderlecht Belgium 75.4% 51.6% 21.3% 1.64% 0.82% 53.8%
FK Rostov Russia 24.6% 21.8% 1.06% 0.76% 0.9% 46.2%
7 Ajax Netherlands 58.9% 46.3% 6.24% 3.54% 2.82% 76.5%
PAOK Greece 41.1% 27.5% 8.64% 2.42% 2.5% 23.5%
8 D. Zagreb Croatia 98.6% 95.4% 1.78% 0.94% 0.44% 91.6%
Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia 1.4% 1.08% 0% 0.12% 0.22% 8.4%
9 Shakhtar Donetsk Ukraine 96.3% 91.5% 3.24% 1.2% 0.4% 84.6%
Young Boys Switzerland 3.7% 2.28% 0% 0.58% 0.8% 15.4%
10 Celtic Scotland 70.9% 56.8% 7.56% 3.9% 2.64% 59.8%
FC Astana Kazakhstan 29.1% 18.8% 6.06% 1.84% 2.34% 40.2%
11 APOEL Cyprus 27.6% 13.4% 10.7% 1.68% 1.7% 28%
Rosenborg Norway 72.4% 66.3% 2.54% 1.84% 1.7% 72%
12 Astra Romania 39.1% 28.5% 5.12% 2.4% 3.02% 55.7%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 60.9% 43.6% 10.3% 3.56% 3.4% 44.3%
13 Fenerbahce Turkey 49.3% 43.2% 3.2% 1.26% 1.66% 37.8%
Monaco France 50.7% 31.8% 13.8% 2.74% 2.32% 62.2%
14 Legia Poland 83.6% 79.5% 0% 2.56% 1.5% 58.6%
Trencin Slovakia 16.4% 6.32% 7.4% 0.98% 1.72% 41.4%
15 H. Beer Sheva Israel 26.7% 24.3% 0% 1.1% 1.32% 17.2%
Olympiakos Piraeus Greece 73.3% 52.1% 17.2% 2.24% 1.68% 82.8%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Playoff Round

The playoff round consists of the fifteen winners from Round 3, two runners-up from associations ranked 4 and 5, and the second runner-up from the associations ranked 1 through 3. The first leg of this round will be played on the 16th and 17th of August and the second leg will be played on the 23rd and 24th of August.

This has been updated to account for the results from Leg 1.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Ajax Netherlands 46.1% 33.6% 6.08% 2.94% 3.38% 65%
FK Rostov Russia 53.9% 36.7% 11.5% 2.8% 2.86% 35%
2 D. Zagreb Croatia 24.6% 15.1% 6.54% 1.28% 1.64% 31.1%
Salzburg Austria 75.4% 65.8% 4.4% 3.64% 1.54% 68.9%
3 APOEL Cyprus 31.7% 24.7% 0% 3.88% 3.1% 48.7%
FC Copenhagen Denmark 68.3% 50.4% 12.6% 2.44% 2.82% 51.3%
4 FC Steaua Bucuresti Romania 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.6%
Manchester City England 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 92.4%
5 B. Monchengladbach Germany 98.9% 97.2% 1.14% 0.38% 0.1% 81.8%
Young Boys Switzerland 1.1% 0.6% 0.26% 0.12% 0.16% 18.2%
6 Celtic Scotland 94.5% 94.4% 0% 0% 0.02% 61.4%
H. Beer Sheva Israel 5.5% 1.3% 4.08% 0.06% 0.1% 38.6%
7 Dundalk Ireland 5.3% 1.96% 1.82% 0.72% 0.78% 43.5%
Legia Poland 94.7% 92.9% 0% 1.1% 0.68% 56.5%
8 AS Roma Italy 68.4% 55.1% 6.58% 4.24% 2.4% 56.7%
FC Porto Portugal 31.6% 20.4% 6.34% 2.12% 2.7% 43.3%
9 Ludogorets Bulgaria 79.2% 67.8% 7.54% 1.38% 2.46% 40.7%
Plzen Czech Republic 20.8% 14.8% 0% 3.66% 2.3% 59.3%
10 Monaco France 83.8% 67.6% 12.9% 1.22% 1.98% 38.9%
Villarreal Spain 16.2% 11.7% 1.5% 1.56% 1.46% 61.1%
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