AAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest American Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the AAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

AAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Houston 8 0 26.2 4.8 0 0 13.9 4.1
2 Cincinnati 9 1 24.5 6.5 0 0 13.3 4.7
3 UCF 7 2 20.5 9.5 0 0 10.8 7.2
4 Temple 7 2 20.4 10.6 0 0 10.5 7.5
5 Connecticut 7 3 19.6 11.4 0 0 10.4 7.6
6 Memphis 5 4 16.9 14.1 0 0 9 9
7 Wichita St 4 4 15.5 14.5 0 0 8.8 9.2
8 Tulsa 7 3 17.9 13.1 0 0 8.7 9.3
9 South Florida 6 2 16.3 13.7 0 0 7.1 10.9
10 SMU 6 4 13.5 16.5 0 0 6.6 11.4
11 Tulane 3 6 8.8 20.2 0 0 4.6 13.4
12 East Carolina 6 4 11.6 18.4 0 0 4.2 13.8

Projected AAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the American Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Cincinnati 6 7.02
Houston 9 6.197
UCF Next 4 Out 4.766

Projected AAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the American Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Houston 57% 28% 10% 1% 100%
Cincinnati 34% 33% 21% 6% 100%
UCF 3% 15% 19% 19% 89%
Temple 3% 11% 17% 16% 91%
Connecticut 3% 10% 16% 18% 96%
Memphis 0% 2% 4% 11% 74%
Wichita St 0% 0% 5% 12% 70%
Tulsa 0% 1% 4% 10% 75%
South Florida 0% 0% 2% 6% 52%
SMU 0% 0% 1% 1% 38%
Tulane 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
East Carolina 0% 0% 1% 0% 7%

AAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament follows the standard rules of a twelve team tournament. The top four seeds get a by to the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: FedEx Forum (Memphis, TN)
First Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Coming Soon!

AAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Connecticut 59.2% South Florida 40.9% Connecticut wins by 3
1/2 East Carolina 17% SMU 83% SMU wins by 10
1/2 Tulsa 9.7% Houston 90.3% Houston wins by 13
1/2 Tulane 1.5% Cincinnati 98.5% Cincinnati wins by 21
1/2 Temple 34% UCF 66% UCF wins by 5
1/3 Wichita St 35.9% Memphis 64.1% Memphis wins by 5
1/4 SMU 56.9% Tulane 43.1% SMU wins by 3
1/5 South Florida 22.8% Tulsa 77.2% Tulsa wins by 8
1/5 Cincinnati 91.7% East Carolina 8.3% Cincinnati wins by 14
1/5 UCF 44.1% Connecticut 55.9% Connecticut wins by 2
1/6 Memphis 10.8% Houston 89.2% Houston wins by 13
1/6 Temple 52.9% Wichita St 47.1% Temple wins by 1
1/9 Houston 60.1% Temple 39.9% Houston wins by 4
1/9 Tulane 17.4% South Florida 82.6% South Florida wins by 10
1/10 SMU 15.5% Connecticut 84.5% Connecticut wins by 11
1/10 East Carolina 10.6% Memphis 89.4% Memphis wins by 13
1/10 Cincinnati 65.3% Tulsa 34.7% Cincinnati wins by 5
1/12 Wichita St 8.9% Houston 91.1% Houston wins by 13

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC