AAC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest American Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the AAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/11/2018.

AAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Cincinnati 29 4 29.7 4.3 18 2 18.7 2.3
2 Wichita St 25 7 25 7 15 5 15 5
3 Houston 26 6 26.3 6.7 16 4 16.3 4.7
4 Tulsa 19 12 19 12 12 7 12 7
5 Memphis 21 13 21 13 12 9 12 9
6 UCF 19 13 19 13 10 10 10 10
7 Temple 17 15 17 15 9 11 9 11
8 Connecticut 14 18 14 18 7 12 7 12
9 SMU 17 16 17 16 7 13 7 13
10 Tulane 14 17 14 17 5 14 5 14
11 East Carolina 10 20 10 20 4 15 4 15
12 South Florida 10 22 10 22 3 16 3 16

Projected AAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the American Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Cincinnati 2 10.736
Wichita St 5 8.783
Houston 6 8.011

AAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each AAC team. The AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament follows the standard rules of a twelve team tournament. The top four seeds get a by to the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: Cincinnati
Tournament Site: Amway Center (Orlando, FL)
First Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Cincinnati
100%
100%
100%
60%
2
Wichita St
100%
100%
100%
40%
3
Houston
100%
100%
0%
0%
4
Tulsa
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Memphis
100%
100%
0%
0%
6
UCF
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
Temple
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
Connecticut
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
SMU
100%
0%
0%
0%
10
Tulane
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
East Carolina
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
South Florida
0%
0%
0%
0%

AAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
3/11 Houston 34.8% Cincinnati 65.2% Cincinnati wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC