AAC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest American Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the AAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

AAC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Cincinnati 23 4 26.4 4.6 12 2 15.4 2.6
2 Houston 21 5 24.2 5.8 11 3 14.2 3.8
3 Wichita St 21 5 23.6 6.4 11 3 13.6 4.4
4 Tulsa 16 10 17.7 12.3 9 5 10.7 7.3
5 UCF 17 9 19.1 10.9 8 6 10.1 7.9
6 Memphis 16 11 18.5 12.5 7 7 9.5 8.5
7 Temple 15 12 16.7 13.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
8 SMU 15 12 17.4 13.6 5 9 7.4 10.6
9 Connecticut 13 14 14.1 16.9 6 8 7.1 10.9
10 Tulane 13 13 13.9 16.1 4 10 4.9 13.1
11 East Carolina 10 15 10.6 18.4 4 10 4.6 13.4
12 South Florida 8 20 8.7 22.3 1 14 1.7 16.3

Projected AAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the American Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Cincinnati 3 8.925
Wichita St 5 7.623
Houston 7 6.747

AAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each AAC team. The AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament follows the standard rules of a twelve team tournament. The top four seeds get a by to the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Amway Center (Orlando, FL)
First Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Cincinnati
100%
87.5%
77.3%
53%
2
Houston
100%
73.4%
34.4%
12.7%
3
Wichita St
100%
89.5%
55.5%
26.3%
4
Tulsa
100%
43.6%
5%
1%
5
UCF
89.5%
54.5%
10.6%
2.6%
6
Memphis
78%
10.1%
2.5%
0.3%
7
Temple
74.7%
23.9%
7.1%
2.3%
8
SMU
72.3%
10.1%
6%
1.4%
9
Connecticut
27.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
10
Tulane
25.3%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
11
East Carolina
22%
0.4%
0%
0%
12
South Florida
10.5%
1.9%
0%
0%

AAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 SMU 80.9% East Carolina 19.1% SMU wins by 9
2/21 UCF 50.4% Tulsa 49.6% UCF wins by 1
2/21 Tulane 6.3% Wichita St 93.8% Wichita St wins by 17
2/22 Connecticut 2.9% Cincinnati 97.1% Cincinnati wins by 19
2/22 Houston 68.3% Memphis 31.7% Houston wins by 6
2/24 Tulane 61.8% South Florida 38.2% Tulane wins by 4
2/24 Wichita St 61.8% SMU 38.2% Wichita St wins by 4
2/25 Tulsa 6.3% Cincinnati 93.8% Cincinnati wins by 17
2/25 Memphis 42.2% Connecticut 57.8% Connecticut wins by 3
2/25 UCF 37.9% Temple 62.1% Temple wins by 4
2/25 East Carolina 1.5% Houston 98.5% Houston wins by 21
2/28 Temple 57.1% Connecticut 42.9% Temple wins by 3
2/28 Houston 56.9% SMU 43.1% Houston wins by 3
3/1 Wichita St 62.8% UCF 37.2% Wichita St wins by 5
3/1 Tulsa 69.9% East Carolina 30.1% Tulsa wins by 6
3/1 South Florida 8.9% Memphis 91.1% Memphis wins by 13
3/1 Cincinnati 91.9% Tulane 8.1% Cincinnati wins by 14
3/4 Tulane 14.8% UCF 85.2% UCF wins by 11

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC