AAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest American Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the AAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

AAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Houston 23 1 28.8 2.2 10 1 15.8 2.2
2 Cincinnati 20 4 24.8 6.2 9 2 13.8 4.2
3 Temple 18 7 21.7 9.3 8 4 11.7 6.3
4 UCF 18 5 21.4 8.6 8 3 11.4 6.6
5 Memphis 15 10 18 13 7 5 10 8
6 South Florida 17 7 19.8 10.2 7 5 9.8 8.2
7 Wichita St 12 11 15.6 14.4 5 6 8.6 9.4
8 Tulsa 14 10 18.6 12.4 4 7 8.6 9.4
9 Connecticut 13 11 16.4 14.6 4 7 7.4 10.6
10 SMU 12 12 14.1 15.9 4 8 6.1 11.9
11 East Carolina 9 15 10.4 19.6 2 10 3.4 14.6
12 Tulane 4 18 5.5 24.5 0 10 1.5 16.5

Projected AAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the American Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Houston 3 11.011
Cincinnati 8 6.665
UCF 11 4.726
Temple 12 4.471

Projected AAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the American Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Houston 89% 10% 1% 0% 100%
Cincinnati 9% 81% 8% 1% 100%
Temple 2% 4% 43% 38% 99%
UCF 0% 4% 35% 32% 100%
Memphis 0% 1% 6% 13% 97%
South Florida 0% 0% 7% 9% 96%
Wichita St 0% 0% 0% 5% 77%
Tulsa 0% 0% 0% 2% 81%
Connecticut 0% 0% 0% 0% 41%
SMU 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
East Carolina 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tulane 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

AAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament follows the standard rules of a twelve team tournament. The top four seeds get a bye to the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: FedEx Forum (Memphis, TN)
First Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Houston
100%
82.3%
62.1%
40.6%
2
Cincinnati
100%
78.6%
55.7%
31.1%
3
Temple
99%
58.1%
20.9%
7.5%
4
UCF
94%
64.5%
27.2%
10.9%
5
Memphis
79.9%
36.2%
11.1%
4.2%
6
South Florida
75.6%
22.4%
5.7%
0.9%
7
Wichita St
58.5%
16.5%
4.3%
1.4%
8
Tulsa
56.6%
11.8%
3.4%
1%
9
Connecticut
60.5%
14.4%
5.6%
1.5%
10
SMU
48.3%
12%
3.8%
0.9%
11
East Carolina
15.6%
2%
0.2%
0%
12
Tulane
12%
1.2%
0%
0%

AAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/14 Houston 72.9% Connecticut 27.1% Houston wins by 7
2/14 Tulsa 79.7% Tulane 20.3% Tulsa wins by 9
2/16 Temple 51.8% South Florida 48.2% Temple wins by 1
2/16 Memphis 25.2% UCF 74.8% UCF wins by 8
2/17 Houston 93.4% Tulane 6.6% Houston wins by 16
2/17 Tulsa 70.3% East Carolina 29.7% Tulsa wins by 7
2/17 Wichita St 11.4% Cincinnati 88.6% Cincinnati wins by 12
2/20 Tulane 6.3% Memphis 93.8% Memphis wins by 17
2/20 Wichita St 36.2% Tulsa 63.8% Tulsa wins by 5
2/21 Connecticut 44.5% SMU 55.5% SMU wins by 2
2/21 UCF 20.1% Cincinnati 79.9% Cincinnati wins by 9
2/23 East Carolina 48.5% Tulane 51.5% Tulane wins by 1
2/23 South Florida 7.8% Houston 92.2% Houston wins by 15
2/23 Memphis 46.3% Wichita St 53.7% Wichita St wins by 1
2/23 Tulsa 24.3% Temple 75.7% Temple wins by 8
2/24 Cincinnati 61.8% Connecticut 38.2% Cincinnati wins by 4
2/24 SMU 16.7% UCF 83.3% UCF wins by 10
2/26 Temple 43.7% Memphis 56.3% Memphis wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC