AAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest American Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the AAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

AAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Houston 31 2 31 2 16 2 16 2
2 Cincinnati 27 6 27 6 14 4 14 4
3 Temple 23 9 23 9 13 5 13 5
4 UCF 23 8 23 8 13 5 13 5
5 Memphis 21 13 21 13 11 7 11 7
6 Wichita St 19 14 19 14 10 8 10 8
7 Tulsa 18 14 18 14 8 10 8 10
8 South Florida 18 13 18 13 8 10 8 10
9 Connecticut 16 17 16 17 6 12 6 12
10 SMU 15 17 15 17 6 12 6 12
11 East Carolina 10 21 10 21 3 15 3 15
12 Tulane 4 27 4 27 0 18 0 18

Projected AAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the American Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Houston 3 11.984
Cincinnati 7 7.745
UCF 8 6.223
Temple 11 5.048
Memphis Next 4 Out 3.782

Projected AAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the American Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Houston 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Cincinnati 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Temple 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
UCF 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Wichita St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Tulsa 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
South Florida 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Connecticut 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SMU 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
East Carolina 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tulane 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

AAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament follows the standard rules of a twelve team tournament. The top four seeds get a bye to the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: Houston
Tournament Site: FedEx Forum (Memphis, TN)
First Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Houston
100%
100%
100%
0%
2
Cincinnati
100%
100%
100%
100%
3
Temple
100%
0%
0%
0%
4
UCF
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Memphis
100%
100%
0%
0%
6
Wichita St
100%
100%
0%
0%
7
Tulsa
0%
0%
0%
0%
8
South Florida
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
Connecticut
100%
0%
0%
0%
10
SMU
100%
0%
0%
0%
11
East Carolina
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Tulane
0%
0%
0%
0%

AAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC