ACC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the ACC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

ACC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Duke 9 1 26.5 4.5 0 0 14.9 3.1
2 Virginia 9 0 24.6 5.4 0 0 12.7 5.3
3 Florida St 8 1 23.7 7.3 0 0 12 6
4 North Carolina 7 2 21.6 9.4 0 0 11.7 6.3
5 Virginia Tech 8 1 22.3 7.7 0 0 11.6 6.4
6 NC State 8 1 21.4 9.6 0 0 10.4 7.6
7 Louisville 6 3 18.9 12.1 0 0 9.7 8.3
8 Syracuse 7 2 19.8 11.2 0 0 9.5 8.5
9 Clemson 6 3 16.9 14.1 0 0 7.9 10.1
10 Georgia Tech 5 3 16.1 14.9 0 0 7.2 10.8
11 Notre Dame 6 3 16.1 14.9 0 0 6.8 11.2
12 Miami FL 5 4 14.1 15.9 0 0 6.5 11.5
13 Boston College 6 2 15.3 14.7 0 0 6.1 11.9
14 Pittsburgh 7 3 14.7 16.3 0 0 5.1 12.9
15 Wake Forest 5 3 9.4 20.6 0 0 2.9 15.1

Projected ACC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Duke 1 12.868
Virginia 3 10.073
Florida St 3 9.131
North Carolina 5 8.56
Virginia Tech 5 7.807
Louisville 6 7.195
Syracuse 7 6.891
Clemson Last 4 Out 4.862
NC State Last 4 Out 4.815

Projected ACC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Duke 64% 20% 11% 4% 100%
Virginia 15% 27% 18% 12% 98%
Florida St 9% 18% 16% 18% 95%
North Carolina 6% 12% 14% 23% 95%
Virginia Tech 1% 12% 14% 19% 93%
NC State 0% 7% 11% 11% 79%
Louisville 4% 2% 5% 4% 73%
Syracuse 1% 2% 8% 3% 67%
Clemson 0% 0% 2% 2% 39%
Georgia Tech 0% 0% 1% 3% 22%
Notre Dame 0% 0% 0% 0% 14%
Miami FL 0% 0% 0% 1% 14%
Boston College 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Wake Forest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

ACC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament gives the first four seeds a double-bye which starts them in the Quarterfinals. The fifth through eighth seeds get a bye into the Second Round of the tournament. In 2020, the ACC Tournament is scheduled to go back to Greensboro. In 2021, it will be played in Washington D.C. And then in 2022, it goes back to Brooklyn, NY.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, NC)
First Round: March 12th, 2019
Second Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Duke
100%
100%
92.2%
77%
65.7%
2
Virginia
100%
92.8%
66%
33.9%
12.4%
3
Florida St
99.2%
92.2%
55.1%
20.2%
4.5%
4
North Carolina
98.6%
84.9%
52.3%
23%
8.1%
5
Virginia Tech
95.2%
77.3%
43.1%
20.5%
5%
6
NC State
92.3%
67.5%
27.5%
7.3%
1.2%
7
Louisville
93.3%
59%
19.7%
6.7%
1.4%
8
Syracuse
89%
59%
17.4%
6.4%
0.9%
9
Clemson
82.3%
47.5%
11.5%
2.5%
0.5%
10
Georgia Tech
67.4%
24.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.1%
11
Notre Dame
70.1%
33%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
12
Miami FL
63.8%
27.4%
4.2%
0.7%
0%
13
Boston College
56.9%
13.8%
3.1%
0.1%
0%
14
Pittsburgh
57%
16.8%
1.4%
0%
0%
15
Wake Forest
34.9%
4.3%
0.2%
0%
0%

ACC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/1 Notre Dame 11.7% Virginia Tech 88.3% Virginia Tech wins by 12
1/3 NC State 59.2% Miami FL 40.9% NC State wins by 3
1/5 Boston College 8.2% Virginia Tech 91.8% Virginia Tech wins by 14
1/5 North Carolina 77.2% Pittsburgh 22.8% North Carolina wins by 8
1/5 Syracuse 54% Notre Dame 46% Syracuse wins by 2
1/5 Clemson 4.3% Duke 95.7% Duke wins by 18
1/5 Wake Forest 9.2% Georgia Tech 90.8% Georgia Tech wins by 13
1/5 Florida St 19.6% Virginia 80.4% Virginia wins by 9
1/6 Miami FL 15% Louisville 85% Louisville wins by 11
1/8 Duke 93.1% Wake Forest 6.9% Duke wins by 16
1/8 North Carolina 52.6% NC State 47.4% North Carolina wins by 1
1/9 Virginia 79.7% Boston College 20.3% Virginia wins by 9
1/9 Louisville 62.5% Pittsburgh 37.6% Louisville wins by 4
1/9 Virginia Tech 61.8% Georgia Tech 38.2% Virginia Tech wins by 4
1/9 Clemson 24.7% Syracuse 75.3% Syracuse wins by 8
1/9 Miami FL 9.7% Florida St 90.3% Florida St wins by 13
1/12 Boston College 30.9% Notre Dame 69.1% Notre Dame wins by 6
1/12 Louisville 19.4% North Carolina 80.6% North Carolina wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC