ACC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the ACC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

ACC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Duke 22 2 27.8 3.2 10 1 15.8 2.2
2 Virginia 21 2 26.8 3.2 9 2 14.8 3.2
3 North Carolina 19 5 23.6 7.4 9 2 13.6 4.4
4 Florida St 19 5 23.5 7.5 7 4 11.5 6.5
5 Louisville 17 8 20.4 10.6 8 4 11.4 6.6
6 Virginia Tech 19 5 22.3 7.7 8 4 11.3 6.7
7 Syracuse 17 8 19.1 11.9 8 4 10.1 7.9
8 NC State 18 7 21.6 9.4 6 6 9.6 8.4
9 Clemson 15 9 18.8 12.2 5 6 8.8 9.2
10 Miami FL 11 13 13.6 16.4 3 9 5.6 12.4
11 Notre Dame 13 11 15.4 15.6 3 8 5.4 12.6
12 Boston College 12 11 14.1 15.9 3 8 5.1 12.9
13 Georgia Tech 11 14 13 18 3 9 5 13
14 Pittsburgh 12 13 13.9 17.1 2 10 3.9 14.1
15 Wake Forest 9 14 10.2 19.8 2 9 3.2 14.8

Projected ACC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Duke 1 17.147
Virginia 1 15.217
North Carolina 3 11.531
Florida St 5 9.45
Louisville 6 9.054
Virginia Tech 6 8.711
Syracuse 9 6.017
NC State 9 5.784
Clemson 11 5.355

Projected ACC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Duke 79% 17% 4% 0% 100%
Virginia 17% 59% 20% 3% 100%
North Carolina 4% 17% 55% 17% 100%
Florida St 0% 3% 5% 32% 97%
Louisville 0% 3% 5% 17% 97%
Virginia Tech 0% 1% 6% 24% 97%
Syracuse 0% 0% 4% 6% 88%
NC State 0% 0% 0% 0% 73%
Clemson 0% 0% 1% 1% 48%
Miami FL 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Boston College 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wake Forest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

ACC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament gives the first four seeds a double-bye which starts them in the Quarterfinals. The fifth through eighth seeds get a bye into the Second Round of the tournament. In 2020, the ACC Tournament is scheduled to go back to Greensboro. In 2021, it will be played in Washington D.C. And then in 2022, it goes back to Brooklyn, NY.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, NC)
First Round: March 12th, 2019
Second Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Duke
100%
100%
88.9%
68.5%
46.6%
2
Virginia
100%
100%
84.5%
57.4%
30.7%
3
North Carolina
100%
98.5%
71.8%
31.3%
10.5%
4
Florida St
100%
89.5%
43.2%
10.9%
3.5%
5
Louisville
100%
82.6%
36.7%
11.5%
3.6%
6
Virginia Tech
100%
86.3%
36.2%
11.5%
3.8%
7
Syracuse
100%
71.7%
14.6%
2.4%
0.3%
8
NC State
100%
53.5%
7.2%
2.5%
0.4%
9
Clemson
94.9%
53.6%
10%
3.4%
0.5%
10
Miami FL
53.9%
13.8%
1.5%
0.1%
0%
11
Notre Dame
48.2%
9.9%
1.3%
0.2%
0.1%
12
Boston College
48.9%
8.5%
1%
0.1%
0%
13
Georgia Tech
53.3%
12.6%
2.2%
0.1%
0%
14
Pittsburgh
49.6%
9.7%
0.5%
0.1%
0%
15
Wake Forest
51.2%
9.8%
0.4%
0%
0%

ACC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/16 North Carolina 91.8% Wake Forest 8.2% North Carolina wins by 14
2/16 Notre Dame 2.3% Virginia 97.7% Virginia wins by 20
2/16 Virginia Tech 71.2% Pittsburgh 28.8% Virginia Tech wins by 7
2/16 NC State 7% Duke 93% Duke wins by 16
2/16 Clemson 22.3% Louisville 77.7% Louisville wins by 8
2/16 Florida St 69.1% Georgia Tech 30.9% Florida St wins by 6
2/17 Miami FL 47.1% Boston College 52.9% Boston College wins by 1
2/18 Virginia 61.8% Virginia Tech 38.2% Virginia wins by 4
2/19 Wake Forest 14.1% Notre Dame 85.9% Notre Dame wins by 11
2/19 Florida St 51.5% Clemson 48.5% Florida St wins by 1
2/20 Boston College 13.7% NC State 86.4% NC State wins by 11
2/20 Louisville 53.7% Syracuse 46.3% Louisville wins by 1
2/20 North Carolina 15.8% Duke 84.2% Duke wins by 11
2/20 Pittsburgh 37.2% Georgia Tech 62.8% Georgia Tech wins by 5
2/23 Virginia 62.8% Louisville 37.2% Virginia wins by 5
2/23 Virginia Tech 63.4% Notre Dame 36.6% Virginia Tech wins by 5
2/23 Duke 79.7% Syracuse 20.3% Duke wins by 9
2/23 Boston College 13.9% Clemson 86.1% Clemson wins by 11

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC