ACC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Atlantic Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the ACC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

ACC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Virginia 24 2 27.4 2.6 13 1 16.4 1.6
2 Duke 22 5 25.1 5.9 10 4 13.1 4.9
3 North Carolina 21 7 22.7 8.3 10 5 11.7 6.3
4 Clemson 20 6 22.6 7.4 9 5 11.6 6.4
5 NC State 19 9 20.6 10.4 9 6 10.6 7.4
6 Virginia Tech 19 8 21 10 8 6 10 8
7 Florida St 19 8 20.7 9.3 8 7 9.7 8.3
8 Miami FL 19 8 20.5 9.5 8 7 9.5 8.5
9 Louisville 18 9 19.3 11.7 8 6 9.3 8.7
10 Syracuse 18 9 19.5 11.5 7 7 8.5 9.5
11 Notre Dame 16 12 17.6 13.4 6 9 7.6 10.4
12 Boston College 16 12 16.8 14.2 6 9 6.8 11.2
13 Georgia Tech 11 16 12.1 18.9 4 10 5.1 12.9
14 Wake Forest 10 17 11.6 18.4 3 12 4.6 13.4
15 Pittsburgh 8 20 8.5 22.5 0 15 0.5 17.5

Projected ACC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Virginia 1 13.63
Duke 2 10.52
North Carolina 2 10.059
Clemson 3 8.793
Florida St 5 7.083
NC State 8 6.334
Virginia Tech 9 6.162
Miami FL 11 5.832
Louisville Last 4 Out 5.105
Syracuse Last 4 Out 4.885

ACC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each ACC team. The ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament gives the first four seeds a double-bye which starts them in the Quarterfinals. The fifth through eighth seeds get a bye into the Second Round of the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: Virginia
Tournament Site: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)
First Round: March 6th, 2018
Second Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Virginia
100%
100%
79.9%
59.9%
34.9%
2
Duke
100%
100%
76.1%
47.8%
27.3%
3
North Carolina
100%
100%
71.8%
34.6%
16.1%
4
Clemson
100%
100%
70.2%
25.2%
10.6%
5
NC State
100%
67.4%
22.8%
4.7%
1.1%
6
Virginia Tech
100%
55.4%
17.7%
5%
1.4%
7
Florida St
100%
57.5%
14.8%
6.6%
3.2%
8
Miami FL
100%
45.7%
7.9%
4.1%
1.1%
9
Louisville
100%
54.3%
12.2%
4.9%
2.1%
10
Syracuse
89.4%
38.9%
9%
2.9%
1.1%
11
Notre Dame
66.5%
29.9%
8.8%
3%
1%
12
Boston College
60.4%
20.5%
4.6%
0.9%
0.1%
13
Georgia Tech
39.6%
12.1%
2.4%
0.3%
0%
14
Wake Forest
33.5%
14.7%
1.7%
0.1%
0%
15
Pittsburgh
10.6%
3.6%
0.1%
0%
0%

ACC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Louisville 13% Duke 87% Duke wins by 12
2/21 Wake Forest 66.4% Pittsburgh 33.6% Wake Forest wins by 6
2/21 North Carolina 57.8% Syracuse 42.2% North Carolina wins by 3
2/21 Georgia Tech 5.6% Virginia 94.4% Virginia wins by 17
2/21 Clemson 44.9% Virginia Tech 55.1% Virginia Tech wins by 2
2/24 Georgia Tech 8.2% Clemson 91.8% Clemson wins by 14
2/24 Syracuse 11.1% Duke 88.9% Duke wins by 12
2/24 Boston College 18.9% Miami FL 81.1% Miami FL wins by 9
2/24 Virginia 92.6% Pittsburgh 7.4% Virginia wins by 16
2/24 Louisville 36.9% Virginia Tech 63.1% Virginia Tech wins by 5
2/24 Notre Dame 52.6% Wake Forest 47.4% Notre Dame wins by 1
2/25 Florida St 48.2% NC State 51.8% NC State wins by 1
2/26 Duke 59.8% Virginia Tech 40.2% Duke wins by 4
2/27 Miami FL 14.6% North Carolina 85.4% North Carolina wins by 11
2/28 Syracuse 51.8% Boston College 48.2% Syracuse wins by 1
2/28 Florida St 32.4% Clemson 67.6% Clemson wins by 6
2/28 Pittsburgh 6.3% Notre Dame 93.8% Notre Dame wins by 17
3/1 NC State 56.7% Georgia Tech 43.3% NC State wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC