ACC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the ACC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

ACC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Virginia 29 3 29 3 16 2 16 2
2 North Carolina 27 6 27 6 16 2 16 2
3 Duke 29 5 29 5 14 4 14 4
4 Florida St 27 7 27 7 13 5 13 5
5 Virginia Tech 24 8 24 8 12 6 12 6
6 Syracuse 20 13 20 13 10 8 10 8
7 Louisville 20 13 20 13 10 8 10 8
8 NC State 22 11 22 11 9 9 9 9
9 Clemson 19 13 19 13 9 9 9 9
10 Georgia Tech 14 18 14 18 6 12 6 12
11 Boston College 14 17 14 17 5 13 5 13
12 Miami FL 14 18 14 18 5 13 5 13
13 Wake Forest 11 20 11 20 4 14 4 14
14 Pittsburgh 14 19 14 19 3 15 3 15
15 Notre Dame 14 19 14 19 3 15 3 15

Projected ACC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Duke 1 16.062
Virginia 1 15.781
North Carolina 1 14.496
Florida St 3 11.407
Virginia Tech 5 9.409
Louisville 7 7.801
Syracuse 9 5.965
NC State 11 5.32
Clemson Last 4 Out 4.729

Projected ACC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Virginia 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
North Carolina 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Duke 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Florida St 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Virginia Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Syracuse 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Louisville 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
NC State 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Clemson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Boston College 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Miami FL 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wake Forest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

ACC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament gives the first four seeds a double-bye which starts them in the Quarterfinals. The fifth through eighth seeds get a bye into the Second Round of the tournament. In 2020, the ACC Tournament is scheduled to go back to Greensboro. In 2021, it will be played in Washington D.C. And then in 2022, it goes back to Brooklyn, NY.

Regular Season Champion: Virginia
Tournament Site: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, NC)
First Round: March 12th, 2019
Second Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Virginia
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
2
North Carolina
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
3
Duke
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
4
Florida St
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
5
Virginia Tech
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
6
Syracuse
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
Louisville
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
NC State
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
9
Clemson
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10
Georgia Tech
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
Boston College
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Miami FL
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13
Wake Forest
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14
Pittsburgh
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
15
Notre Dame
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%

ACC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC