Air Force Falcons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Air Force Falcons. All of these projections for Air Force are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Air Force Record and Rankings

Record: 14-18
Projected Final Record: 14.0-18.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 6

Air Force Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 222
RPI Rank: 225
NET Rank: 242
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-5 1-2 1-7 11-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.125 0.733

Our current projections give the Air Force Falcons a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Air Force’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Air Force Falcons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Air Force Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank J&W CO Home W 90-65
11/9 128 Texas St Away L 57-67
11/16 206 UMBC Neutral L 72-77
11/18 249 South Dakota Neutal W 65-62
11/19 229 High Point Neutral L 62-69
11/24 80 Colorado Home L 56-93
11/28 175 Missouri St Home W 88-69
12/1 199 Pacific Away L 69-82
12/5 324 Denver Home W 73-65
12/8 251 Army Home L 61-66
12/22 8 Michigan Away L 50-71
12/28 316 UC Riverside Home W 72-60
1/2 191 New Mexico Home L 58-65
1/5 30 Utah St Away L 62-79
1/8 213 Colorado St Away L 64-87
1/12 100 San Diego St Home W 62-48
1/16 156 UNLV Home W 106-88
1/19 28 Nevada Away L 52-67
1/22 182 Boise St Home W 74-60
1/26 339 San Jose St Away W 73-71
1/30 100 San Diego St Away L 51-66
2/2 213 Colorado St Home L 53-85
2/6 315 Wyoming Home W 81-76
2/12 156 UNLV Away L 72-77
2/16 30 Utah St Home L 62-76
2/20 86 Fresno St Away W 64-61
2/23 339 San Jose St Home W 82-68
3/2 315 Wyoming Away W 80-72
3/5 28 Nevada Home L 79-90
3/9 182 Boise St Away L 52-80
3/13 339 San Jose St Neutal W 87-56
3/14 86 Fresno St Neutral L 50-76