Air Force Falcons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Air Force Falcons. All of these projections for Air Force are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Air Force Record and Rankings

Record: 7-10
Projected Final Record: 11.7-18.3

Mountain West Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 6.7-11.3
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 9

Air Force Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 232
RPI Rank: 249
NET Rank: 239
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-2 0-1 6-5
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.545

Our current projections give the Air Force Falcons a 0.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Air Force’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Air Force Falcons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Air Force Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank J&W CO Home W 90-65
11/9 96 Texas St Away L 57-67
11/16 263 UMBC Neutral L 72-77
11/18 213 South Dakota Neutal W 65-62
11/19 209 High Point Neutral L 62-69
11/24 108 Colorado Home L 56-93
11/28 196 Missouri St Home W 88-69
12/1 169 Pacific Away L 69-82
12/5 301 Denver Home W 73-65
12/8 253 Army Home L 61-66
12/22 2 Michigan Away L 50-71
12/28 314 UC Riverside Home W 72-60
1/2 186 New Mexico Home L 58-65
1/5 56 Utah St Away L 62-79
1/8 212 Colorado St Away L 64-87
1/12 151 San Diego St Home W 62-48
1/16 165 UNLV Home W 106-88
1/19 20 Nevada Away 1.4%
1/22 154 Boise St Home 40.5%
1/26 326 San Jose St Away 59.5%
1/30 151 San Diego St Away 16.5%
2/2 212 Colorado St Home 56.9%
2/6 307 Wyoming Home 80.4%
2/12 165 UNLV Away 18.9%
2/16 56 Utah St Home 24.3%
2/20 59 Fresno St Away 8%
2/23 326 San Jose St Home 83.8%
3/2 307 Wyoming Away 53.7%
3/5 20 Nevada Home 13.7%
3/9 154 Boise St Away 16.7%