Alabama Crimson Tide Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. All of these projections for Alabama are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Alabama Record and Rankings

Record: 17-10
Projected Final Record: 18.7-12.3

SEC Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final SEC Record: 9.7-8.3
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 6

Alabama Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 40
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-5 4-4 5-1 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.545 0.500 0.833 1.000

Our current projections give the Alabama Crimson Tide a 90.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 9.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Alabama’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 9.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 11.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.4%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Alabama Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 112 Memphis Annapolis, MD W 82-70
11/14 165 Lipscomb Home W 86-64
11/17 349 Alabama A&M Home W 104-67
11/21 169 UT Arlington Home W 77-76
11/24 87 BYU Brooklyn, NY W 71-59
11/25 96 Minnesota Brooklyn, NY L 84-89
11/29 152 Louisiana Tech Home W 77-74
12/3 68 UCF Home L 62-65
12/6 19 Rhode Island Home W 68-64
12/9 18 Arizona Away L 82-88
12/19 171 Mercer Huntsville, AL W 80-79
12/22 39 Texas Birmingham, AL L 50-66
12/30 27 Texas A&M Home W 79-57
1/2 84 Vanderbilt Away L 75-76
1/6 58 Georgia Away L 46-65
1/9 71 South Carolina Home W 76-62
1/13 57 LSU Away W 74-66
1/17 8 Auburn Home W 76-71
1/20 50 Mississippi St Home W 68-62
1/23 97 Mississippi Away L 66-78
1/27 37 Oklahoma Home W 80-73
1/31 38 Missouri Home L 60-69
2/3 35 Florida Away W 68-50
2/6 50 Mississippi St Away L 63-67
2/10 15 Tennessee Home W 78-50
2/13 57 LSU Home W 80-65
2/17 28 Kentucky Away L 71-81
2/21 8 Auburn Away 17.7%
2/24 25 Arkansas Home 57.8%
2/27 35 Florida Home 55.1%
3/3 27 Texas A&M Away 34.4%