Alabama Crimson Tide Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. All of these projections for Alabama are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Alabama Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 17.9-13.1

SEC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.5-9.5
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 8

Alabama Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 49
RPI Rank: 39
NET Rank: 57
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 3-2 4-1 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.600 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Alabama Crimson Tide a 45.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 9.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Alabama’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 11.6%
NIT #2 Seed 12.6%
NIT #3 Seed 8.2%
NIT #4 Seed 5.2%
NIT #5 Seed 5.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Alabama Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 343 Southern Univ Home W 82-62
11/11 303 Appalachian St Home W 81-73
11/15 105 Northeastern Neutral L 52-68
11/16 93 Ball St Neutal W 79-61
11/18 115 Wichita St Neutal W 90-86
11/26 47 Murray St Home W 78-72
11/29 46 UCF Away L 64-70
12/4 87 Georgia St Home L 80-83
12/9 51 Arizona Home W 76-73
12/18 75 Liberty Neutal W 84-75
12/21 83 Penn St Home W 73-64
12/30 257 SF Austin Away W 79-69
1/5 8 Kentucky Home W 77-75
1/8 16 LSU Away L 79-88
1/12 122 Texas A&M Home L 80-81
1/16 71 Missouri Away W 70-60
1/19 4 Tennessee Away L 68-71
1/22 23 Mississippi Home 44.5%
1/26 55 Baylor Away 41.2%
1/29 28 Mississippi St Home 44.5%
2/2 20 Auburn Away 16.7%
2/6 94 Georgia Home 81.1%
2/9 106 Vanderbilt Away 57.1%
2/12 28 Mississippi St Away 19.6%
2/16 40 Florida Home 54.8%
2/19 122 Texas A&M Away 58.8%
2/23 106 Vanderbilt Home 82.1%
2/26 91 South Carolina Away 55.7%
3/2 16 LSU Home 43.9%
3/5 20 Auburn Home 42.9%
3/9 78 Arkansas Away 48.5%