Alabama Crimson Tide Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. All of these projections for Alabama are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Alabama Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 15.3-13.7

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 7.8-10.2
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 10

Alabama Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 57
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Alabama Crimson Tide a 16.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 58.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 25.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Alabama’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.0%
NIT #2 Seed 16.6%
NIT #3 Seed 18.4%
NIT #4 Seed 13.8%
NIT #5 Seed 5.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Alabama Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 316 Southern Univ Home W 82-62
11/11 174 Appalachian St Home W 81-73
11/15 94 Northeastern Neutal 60.5%
11/26 62 Murray St Home 63.1%
11/29 131 UCF Away 61.8%
12/4 113 Georgia St Home 81.6%
12/9 24 Arizona Home 50.7%
12/18 159 Liberty Neutal 79.7%
12/21 17 Penn St Home 43.9%
12/30 125 SF Austin Away 61.8%
1/5 11 Kentucky Home 35.5%
1/8 51 LSU Away 39.2%
1/12 70 Texas A&M Home 64.1%
1/16 89 Missouri Away 48.9%
1/19 7 Tennessee Away 9.7%
1/22 91 Mississippi Home 69.9%
1/26 83 Baylor Away 42.7%
1/29 32 Mississippi St Home 50.7%
2/2 19 Auburn Away 18.9%
2/6 49 Georgia Home 57.3%
2/9 30 Vanderbilt Away 20.8%
2/12 32 Mississippi St Away 26.7%
2/16 48 Florida Home 58.2%
2/19 70 Texas A&M Away 42.7%
2/23 30 Vanderbilt Home 45.6%
2/26 112 South Carolina Away 52.9%
3/2 51 LSU Home 60.8%
3/5 19 Auburn Home 43.5%
3/9 58 Arkansas Away 37.2%