Alabama State Hornets Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Alabama State Hornets. All of these projections for Alabama St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Alabama St Record and Rankings

Record: 5-10
Projected Final Record: 12.8-16.2

Southwestern Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final Southwestern Record: 10.8-7.2
Projected Final Rank in the Southwestern: 4

Alabama St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 315
RPI Rank: 276
NET Rank: 321
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-0 0-6 3-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.750

Our current projections give the Alabama State Hornets a 7.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 89.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Alabama St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 7.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 3.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Alabama State Hornets. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Alabama St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 18 Iowa St Away L 53-79
11/8 137 S Dakota St Away L 61-78
11/11 No Rank LaGrange Home W 97-63
11/14 No Rank Birmingham So Home W 86-44
11/21 25 Iowa Away L 78-105
11/28 145 Akron Away L 54-86
12/12 154 Boise St Away L 57-67
12/15 56 Utah St Away L 48-86
12/18 184 Sam Houston St Away L 57-78
12/21 69 Liberty Neutral L 55-73
12/22 227 Campbell Neutral L 69-70
1/5 311 Grambling Home W 74-53
1/7 327 Jackson St Home W 59-57
1/12 282 Ark Pine Bluff Away L 71-82
1/14 346 MS Valley St Away W 81-79
1/19 342 Alabama A&M Away 59.5%
1/26 351 Alcorn St Home 88.1%
1/28 350 Southern Univ Home 80.9%
2/2 185 TX Southern Away 16.5%
2/4 271 Prairie View Away 30.1%
2/9 282 Ark Pine Bluff Home 48.2%
2/11 346 MS Valley St Home 79.2%
2/16 342 Alabama A&M Home 74.3%
2/23 351 Alcorn St Away 72.5%
2/25 350 Southern Univ Away 62.5%
3/2 185 TX Southern Home 33.6%
3/4 271 Prairie View Home 44.5%
3/7 311 Grambling Away 42.2%
3/9 327 Jackson St Away 44.5%