America East Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest America East Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the America East are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

America East Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Vermont 20 5 24 6 10 1 14 2
2 Stony Brook 20 5 24.3 6.7 8 2 12.3 3.7
3 UMBC 16 10 18.7 12.3 8 3 10.7 5.3
4 Hartford 13 12 16.6 14.4 6 4 9.6 6.4
5 MA Lowell 14 12 16.4 14.6 6 5 8.4 7.6
6 Albany NY 8 17 10.7 20.3 3 7 5.7 10.3
7 Maine 5 21 7.4 23.6 3 8 5.4 10.6
8 Binghamton 7 19 8.2 22.8 3 8 4.2 11.8
9 New Hampshire 3 21 3.7 25.3 1 10 1.7 14.3

Projected America East Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the America East Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Vermont 13 2.805

Projected America East Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the America East Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Vermont 81% 16% 3% 0% 100%
Stony Brook 15% 73% 11% 1% 100%
UMBC 3% 9% 59% 29% 100%
Hartford 1% 2% 23% 51% 100%
MA Lowell 0% 0% 4% 19% 100%
Albany NY 0% 0% 0% 0% 99%
Maine 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Binghamton 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
New Hampshire 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

America East Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the America East Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. There are nine teams in the America East Conference, however only the top eight in the standings make the conference tournament. The games are played on the campus site of the higher rated team.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 2nd, 2019
Semifinals: March 5th, 2019
Finals: March 9th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
Vermont
97.9%
85.6%
72%
2
Stony Brook
89.7%
56%
17.6%
3
UMBC
77.8%
29.5%
5.3%
4
Hartford
68.6%
19.7%
3.9%
5
MA Lowell
32.8%
5.4%
0.9%
6
Albany NY
16.8%
2.4%
0.3%
7
Maine
13.4%
1%
0%
8
Binghamton
0.9%
0.2%
0%

America East Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/16 Vermont 66% Hartford 34% Vermont wins by 5
2/16 MA Lowell 32.8% UMBC 67.2% UMBC wins by 6
2/16 Stony Brook 92.4% New Hampshire 7.6% Stony Brook wins by 15
2/17 Albany NY 47.8% Maine 52.2% Maine wins by 1
2/21 Binghamton 13% MA Lowell 87% MA Lowell wins by 12
2/21 Hartford 83.8% New Hampshire 16.2% Hartford wins by 10
2/21 Vermont 67.2% UMBC 32.8% Vermont wins by 6
2/21 Albany NY 10.3% Stony Brook 89.7% Stony Brook wins by 13
2/23 Vermont 92.1% Binghamton 7.9% Vermont wins by 15
2/23 Hartford 47.1% MA Lowell 52.9% MA Lowell wins by 1
2/23 Maine 7.8% Stony Brook 92.2% Stony Brook wins by 15
2/23 UMBC 56.1% Albany NY 43.9% UMBC wins by 2
2/27 Hartford 71.2% Binghamton 28.8% Hartford wins by 7
2/27 MA Lowell 57.1% Maine 42.9% MA Lowell wins by 3
2/27 UMBC 18.4% Stony Brook 81.6% Stony Brook wins by 9
2/27 New Hampshire 8.2% Albany NY 91.8% Albany NY wins by 14
3/2 Binghamton 24.3% Maine 75.7% Maine wins by 8
3/2 New Hampshire 6.3% UMBC 93.8% UMBC wins by 17

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC