America East Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest America East Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the America East are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

America East Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Vermont 7 3 22.3 7.7 0 0 12.8 3.2
2 Stony Brook 8 2 23.4 7.6 0 0 12 4
3 UMBC 6 4 20.3 10.7 0 0 10.5 5.5
4 MA Lowell 6 6 16.9 14.1 0 0 9.2 6.8
5 Hartford 3 7 13.7 17.3 0 0 8.5 7.5
6 Albany NY 3 6 11.3 19.7 0 0 6.7 9.3
7 Maine 1 9 7 24 0 0 4.9 11.1
8 Binghamton 3 7 8.7 22.3 0 0 4.6 11.4
9 New Hampshire 2 8 5.2 23.8 0 0 2.8 13.2

Projected America East Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the America East Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Vermont 15 2.809

Projected America East Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the America East Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Vermont 55% 29% 14% 2% 100%
Stony Brook 30% 43% 17% 8% 100%
UMBC 9% 19% 34% 19% 100%
MA Lowell 3% 3% 19% 33% 100%
Hartford 3% 4% 12% 25% 100%
Albany NY 0% 2% 3% 8% 99%
Maine 0% 0% 1% 3% 92%
Binghamton 0% 0% 0% 2% 86%
New Hampshire 0% 0% 0% 0% 23%

America East Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the America East Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. There are nine teams in the America East Conference, however only the top eight in the standings make the conference tournament. The games are played on the campus site of the higher rated team.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 2nd, 2019
Semifinals: March 5th, 2019
Finals: March 9th, 2019

Coming Soon!

America East Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/5 New Hampshire 20.1% Binghamton 79.9% Binghamton wins by 9
1/5 Maine 7.8% UMBC 92.2% UMBC wins by 15
1/5 Stony Brook 59.5% MA Lowell 40.5% Stony Brook wins by 4
1/5 Vermont 80.4% Albany NY 19.6% Vermont wins by 9
1/9 Binghamton 4.3% Stony Brook 95.7% Stony Brook wins by 18
1/9 UMBC 55.5% Hartford 44.5% UMBC wins by 2
1/9 Vermont 90.6% Maine 9.4% Vermont wins by 13
1/9 MA Lowell 81.4% New Hampshire 18.6% MA Lowell wins by 9
1/12 Hartford 10.6% Vermont 89.4% Vermont wins by 13
1/12 UMBC 49.3% MA Lowell 50.7% MA Lowell wins by 1
1/12 New Hampshire 1.4% Stony Brook 98.6% Stony Brook wins by 22
1/12 Maine 20.3% Albany NY 79.7% Albany NY wins by 9
1/16 Binghamton 7.4% UMBC 92.6% UMBC wins by 15
1/16 Hartford 62.5% Maine 37.6% Hartford wins by 4
1/16 Vermont 92.7% New Hampshire 7.3% Vermont wins by 16
1/16 Albany NY 18.4% MA Lowell 81.6% MA Lowell wins by 9
1/19 Binghamton 1.6% Vermont 98.4% Vermont wins by 20
1/19 MA Lowell 43.5% Hartford 56.5% Hartford wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC