Arizona Wildcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Arizona Wildcats. All of these projections for Arizona are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Arizona Record and Rankings

Record: 21-6
Projected Final Record: 24.0-7.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 11-3
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 14.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 1

Arizona Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 18
RPI Rank: 16
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-2 5-4 7-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.667 0.556 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Arizona Wildcats a 99.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arizona’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 22.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 15.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 20.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 17.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arizona Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arizona Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 329 Northern Arizona Home W 101-67
11/12 184 UMBC Home W 103-78
11/16 231 CS Bakersfield Home W 91-59
11/22 44 NC State Nassau, Bahamas L 84-90
11/23 88 SMU Nassau, Bahamas L 60-66
11/24 7 Purdue Nassau, Bahamas L 64-89
11/29 186 Long Beach St Home W 91-56
12/2 86 UNLV Away W 91-88
12/5 27 Texas A&M Phoenix, AZ W 67-64
12/9 40 Alabama Home W 88-82
12/16 136 New Mexico Away W 89-73
12/18 187 N Dakota St Home W 83-53
12/21 129 Connecticut Home W 73-58
12/30 34 Arizona St Home W 84-78
1/4 52 Utah Away W 94-82
1/6 95 Colorado Away L 77-80
1/11 107 Oregon St Home W 62-53
1/13 65 Oregon Home W 90-83
1/17 191 California Away W 79-58
1/20 90 Stanford Away W 73-71
1/25 95 Colorado Home W 80-71
1/27 52 Utah Home W 74-73
1/31 176 Washington St Away W 100-72
2/3 69 Washington Away L 75-78
2/8 43 UCLA Home L 74-82
2/10 51 USC Home W 81-67
2/15 34 Arizona St Away W 77-70
2/22 107 Oregon St Away 64.1%
2/24 65 Oregon Away 55.7%
3/1 90 Stanford Home 85.9%
3/3 191 California Home 95.1%