Arkansas Razorbacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. All of these projections for Arkansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Arkansas Record and Rankings

Record: 17-15
Projected Final Record: 17.0-15.0

SEC Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 9

Arkansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 63
RPI Rank: 101
NET Rank: 66
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-7 3-5 8-3 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.125 0.375 0.727 1.000

Our current projections give the Arkansas Razorbacks a 4.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 84.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 11.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arkansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 7.2%
NIT #2 Seed 9.8%
NIT #3 Seed 10.0%
NIT #4 Seed 7.2%
NIT #5 Seed 9.8%
NIT #6 Seed 24.2%
NIT #7 Seed 16.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arkansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 40 Texas Neutral L 71-73
11/12 260 UC Davis Home W 81-58
11/18 45 Indiana Home W 73-72
11/21 250 Montana St Home W 90-68
11/23 147 UT Arlington Home W 78-60
12/1 173 Florida Intl Home W 121-89
12/5 213 Colorado St Away W 98-74
12/8 105 WKU Home L 77-78
12/15 144 UT San Antonio Neutal W 79-67
12/19 99 Georgia Tech Home L 65-69
12/22 128 Texas St Home W 73-70
12/28 131 Austin Peay Home W 76-65
1/5 78 Texas A&M Away W 73-71
1/9 29 Florida Home L 51-57
1/12 13 LSU Home L 88-94
1/15 3 Tennessee Away L 87-106
1/19 38 Mississippi Away L 67-84
1/23 73 Missouri Home W 72-60
1/26 11 Texas Tech Away L 64-67
1/29 124 Georgia Home W 70-60
2/2 13 LSU Away W 90-89
2/5 161 Vanderbilt Home W 69-66
2/9 65 South Carolina Away L 65-77
2/12 73 Missouri Away L 78-79
2/16 21 Mississippi St Home L 67-77
2/20 16 Auburn Away L 56-79
2/23 78 Texas A&M Home L 80-87
2/26 5 Kentucky Away L 66-70
3/2 38 Mississippi Home W 74-73
3/6 161 Vanderbilt Away W 84-48
3/9 54 Alabama Home W 82-70
3/14 29 Florida Neutral L 50-66