Arkansas Razorbacks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. All of these projections for Arkansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Arkansas Record and Rankings

Record: 19-9
Projected Final Record: 20.3-10.7

SEC Conference Record: 8-7
Projected Final SEC Record: 9.3-8.7
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 8

Arkansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 25
RPI Rank: 35
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-8 1-1 8-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.385 0.500 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Arkansas Razorbacks a 88.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 11.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arkansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 14.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.0%
NIT #2 Seed 3.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arkansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 294 Samford Home W 95-56
11/12 117 Bucknell Home W 101-73
11/17 80 Fresno St Home W 83-75
11/23 37 Oklahoma Portland, OR W 92-83
11/24 10 North Carolina Portland, OR L 68-87
11/26 129 Connecticut Portland, OR W 102-67
12/2 22 Houston Away L 65-91
12/5 204 Colorado St Home W 92-66
12/9 96 Minnesota Home W 95-79
12/16 203 Troy North Little Rock, AR W 88-63
12/19 229 Oral Roberts Home W 104-69
12/27 231 CS Bakersfield Home W 95-68
12/30 15 Tennessee Home W 95-93
1/2 50 Mississippi St Away L 75-78
1/6 8 Auburn Away L 77-88
1/10 57 LSU Home L 54-75
1/13 38 Missouri Home W 65-63
1/17 35 Florida Away L 73-88
1/20 97 Mississippi Home W 97-93
1/23 58 Georgia Away W 80-77
1/27 61 Oklahoma St Home W 66-65
1/30 27 Texas A&M Away L 66-80
2/3 57 LSU Away L 86-94
2/6 71 South Carolina Home W 81-65
2/10 84 Vanderbilt Home W 72-54
2/13 97 Mississippi Away W 75-64
2/17 27 Texas A&M Home W 94-75
2/20 28 Kentucky Home L 72-87
2/24 40 Alabama Away 42.2%
2/27 8 Auburn Home 44.5%
3/3 38 Missouri Away 40.2%