Arkansas Razorbacks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. All of these projections for Arkansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Arkansas Record and Rankings

Record: 0-1
Projected Final Record: 18.3-12.7

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.7-9.3
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 7

Arkansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 58
RPI Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Arkansas Razorbacks a 13.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 62.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 24.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arkansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.4%
NIT #2 Seed 12.8%
NIT #3 Seed 22.4%
NIT #4 Seed 13.6%
NIT #5 Seed 7.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arkansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 54 Texas Neutral L 71-73
11/12 229 UC Davis Home 93.4%
11/18 20 Indiana Home 41.8%
11/21 325 Montana St Home 98.9%
11/23 127 UT Arlington Home 85.4%
12/1 184 Florida Intl Home 92.2%
12/5 263 Colorado St Away 90.8%
12/8 73 WKU Home 74.3%
12/15 141 UT San Antonio Neutal 82.2%
12/19 96 Georgia Tech Home 80.9%
12/22 230 Texas St Home 93%
12/28 249 Austin Peay Home 95.7%
1/5 70 Texas A&M Away 44.1%
1/9 48 Florida Home 60.8%
1/12 51 LSU Home 62.5%
1/15 7 Tennessee Away 11.4%
1/19 91 Mississippi Away 48.9%
1/23 89 Missouri Home 76.2%
1/26 29 Texas Tech Away 29.7%
1/29 49 Georgia Home 59.8%
2/2 51 LSU Away 41.2%
2/5 30 Vanderbilt Home 48.2%
2/9 112 South Carolina Away 55.5%
2/12 89 Missouri Away 51.8%
2/16 32 Mississippi St Home 52.9%
2/20 19 Auburn Away 20.3%
2/23 70 Texas A&M Home 67.2%
2/26 11 Kentucky Away 13.2%
3/2 91 Mississippi Home 72.8%
3/6 30 Vanderbilt Away 24.3%
3/9 57 Alabama Home 62.8%