Arkansas Razorbacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. All of these projections for Arkansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Arkansas Record and Rankings

Record: 10-7
Projected Final Record: 15.9-15.1

SEC Conference Record: 1-4
Projected Final SEC Record: 6.8-11.2
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 10

Arkansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 78
RPI Rank: 93
NET Rank: 78
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 2-0 3-3 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Arkansas Razorbacks a 10.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 14.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 75.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arkansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.2%
NIT #2 Seed 3.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 2.2%
NIT #5 Seed 3.0%
NIT #6 Seed 2.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arkansas Razorbacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arkansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 36 Texas Neutral L 71-73
11/12 274 UC Davis Home W 81-58
11/18 34 Indiana Home W 73-72
11/21 269 Montana St Home W 90-68
11/23 209 UT Arlington Home W 78-60
12/1 177 Florida Intl Home W 121-89
12/5 215 Colorado St Away W 98-74
12/8 127 WKU Home L 77-78
12/15 181 UT San Antonio Neutal W 79-67
12/19 89 Georgia Tech Home L 65-69
12/22 98 Texas St Home W 73-70
12/28 134 Austin Peay Home W 76-65
1/5 122 Texas A&M Away W 73-71
1/9 40 Florida Home L 51-57
1/12 16 LSU Home L 88-94
1/15 4 Tennessee Away L 87-106
1/19 23 Mississippi Away L 67-84
1/23 71 Missouri Home 63.1%
1/26 14 Texas Tech Away 11.9%
1/29 94 Georgia Home 69.1%
2/2 16 LSU Away 13.4%
2/5 106 Vanderbilt Home 72.8%
2/9 91 South Carolina Away 45.2%
2/12 71 Missouri Away 40.9%
2/16 28 Mississippi St Home 39.2%
2/20 20 Auburn Away 13.2%
2/23 122 Texas A&M Home 76.2%
2/26 8 Kentucky Away 9.2%
3/2 23 Mississippi Home 40.2%
3/6 106 Vanderbilt Away 47.8%
3/9 49 Alabama Home 51.5%