Arkansas State University Red Wolves Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Arkansas State University Red Wolves. All of these projections for Arkansas St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Arkansas St Record and Rankings

Record: 8-9
Projected Final Record: 13.8-17.2

Sun Belt Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 7.8-10.2
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 7

Arkansas St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 211
RPI Rank: 164
NET Rank: 202
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-3 1-2 4-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 0.333 0.667

Our current projections give the Arkansas State University Red Wolves a 1.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Arkansas St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Arkansas State University Red Wolves. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Arkansas St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 140 Abilene Chr Away L 73-94
11/12 No Rank MO Baptist Home W 89-54
11/16 105 Grand Canyon Away L 72-96
11/23 214 UNC Wilmington Neutral L 64-78
11/24 230 E Illinois Neutral L 86-90
11/25 168 Gardner Webb Neutal W 77-69
12/1 144 Lehigh Away L 70-82
12/4 171 Evansville Home W 87-77
12/8 45 Minnesota Away L 56-72
12/14 189 FL Atlantic Home W 75-71
12/18 196 Missouri St Home W 71-63
12/22 43 Syracuse Away L 52-82
12/29 No Rank Harding Home W 87-62
1/3 155 Louisiana Away W 94-83
1/5 162 ULM Away L 75-85
1/10 265 South Alabama Home W 66-65
1/12 183 Troy Home L 85-90
1/17 233 UT Arlington Away 43.3%
1/19 96 Texas St Away 15%
1/24 291 Appalachian St Home 68.7%
1/26 229 Coastal Car Home 57.3%
2/2 248 Ark Little Rock Away 43.5%
2/7 265 South Alabama Away 47.4%
2/9 183 Troy Away 32.1%
2/14 96 Texas St Home 35.5%
2/16 233 UT Arlington Home 60.5%
2/23 248 Ark Little Rock Home 60.8%
2/28 71 Georgia St Away 13.7%
3/2 131 Ga Southern Away 17.9%
3/7 162 ULM Home 43.3%
3/9 155 Louisiana Home 43.1%