Atlantic 10 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic 10 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Atlantic 10 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Atlantic 10 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 VA Commonwealth 20 6 24.1 6.9 11 2 15.1 2.9
2 Davidson 19 7 22.7 8.3 10 3 13.7 4.3
3 Dayton 17 9 20.7 10.3 9 4 12.7 5.3
4 George Mason 15 11 17.6 13.4 9 4 11.6 6.4
5 St Bonaventure 12 14 14.5 16.5 8 5 10.5 7.5
6 St Louis 17 9 19.4 11.6 8 5 10.4 7.6
7 Duquesne 17 9 19.3 11.7 8 5 10.3 7.7
8 La Salle 8 17 10 20 6 7 8 10
9 Rhode Island 12 13 14.7 15.3 5 8 7.7 10.3
10 Richmond 11 15 12.6 18.4 5 8 6.6 11.4
11 St Joseph’s PA 11 15 13.3 17.7 4 9 6.3 11.7
12 G Washington 8 18 9.4 21.6 4 9 5.4 12.6
13 Fordham 11 15 12.9 18.1 2 11 3.9 14.1
14 Massachusetts 9 17 10.7 20.3 2 11 3.7 14.3

Projected Atlantic 10 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic 10 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
VA Commonwealth 11 5.613

Projected Atlantic 10 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic 10 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
VA Commonwealth 85% 10% 5% 0% 100%
Davidson 14% 60% 15% 7% 100%
Dayton 0% 22% 55% 11% 100%
George Mason 1% 5% 10% 39% 100%
St Bonaventure 0% 2% 3% 17% 99%
St Louis 0% 1% 9% 12% 99%
Duquesne 0% 0% 3% 14% 99%
La Salle 0% 0% 0% 0% 48%
Rhode Island 0% 0% 0% 0% 41%
Richmond 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
St Joseph’s PA 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
G Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Fordham 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Massachusetts 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Atlantic-10 tournament is a fourteen team tournament played at a neutral site over the course of five days. The 2019 version of the tournament will be played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
VA Commonwealth
100%
100%
78.1%
59.6%
37.7%
2
Davidson
100%
99.1%
68.7%
39.2%
20.4%
3
Dayton
100%
95.5%
60.3%
33.9%
18.2%
4
George Mason
100%
84.8%
40.3%
13.8%
4.4%
5
St Bonaventure
100%
72.9%
29.7%
8.9%
3.3%
6
St Louis
100%
74.2%
36.6%
15.9%
6.9%
7
Duquesne
100%
76.8%
33.2%
10.9%
3.9%
8
La Salle
97.8%
38.3%
7.5%
2.6%
0.4%
9
Rhode Island
94.6%
55.4%
19.6%
9.5%
3.8%
10
Richmond
67.8%
26%
7.9%
1.9%
0.5%
11
St Joseph’s PA
89.7%
35%
6.8%
2.5%
0.3%
12
G Washington
49.4%
13.2%
2%
0.2%
0%
13
Fordham
47.9%
12.1%
3.3%
0.3%
0%
14
Massachusetts
52.8%
16.7%
6%
0.8%
0.2%

Atlantic 10 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Davidson 59.5% Rhode Island 40.5% Davidson wins by 4
2/23 G Washington 7% VA Commonwealth 93% VA Commonwealth wins by 16
2/23 Richmond 42.5% La Salle 57.5% La Salle wins by 3
2/23 Duquesne 40.9% George Mason 59.2% George Mason wins by 3
2/23 St Bonaventure 59.8% Fordham 40.2% St Bonaventure wins by 4
2/23 St Louis 29% Dayton 71% Dayton wins by 7
2/23 St Joseph’s PA 51.5% Massachusetts 48.5% St Joseph’s PA wins by 1
2/26 Dayton 71.2% Massachusetts 28.8% Dayton wins by 7
2/26 G Washington 16.7% Rhode Island 83.3% Rhode Island wins by 10
2/26 St Louis 17.7% VA Commonwealth 82.3% VA Commonwealth wins by 10
2/27 Davidson 69.9% La Salle 30.1% Davidson wins by 6
2/27 Richmond 23.8% George Mason 76.2% George Mason wins by 8
2/27 Duquesne 41.8% St Bonaventure 58.2% St Bonaventure wins by 3
2/27 St Joseph’s PA 54.8% Fordham 45.2% St Joseph’s PA wins by 2
3/1 Rhode Island 19.6% Dayton 80.4% Dayton wins by 9
3/2 Fordham 8.6% Davidson 91.4% Davidson wins by 13
3/2 VA Commonwealth 79.7% Richmond 20.3% VA Commonwealth wins by 9
3/2 Massachusetts 20.6% Duquesne 79.4% Duquesne wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC