Atlantic 10 Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Atlantic 10 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Atlantic 10 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Atlantic 10 Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Rhode Island 22 4 24.4 4.6 14 1 16.4 1.6
2 St Bonaventure 20 6 22.7 7.3 10 4 12.7 5.3
3 Davidson 15 10 17.3 11.7 10 4 12.3 5.7
4 St Louis 15 13 16.7 14.3 8 7 9.7 8.3
5 VA Commonwealth 15 12 17.4 13.6 7 7 9.4 8.6
6 St Joseph’s PA 12 14 14.1 15.9 7 7 9.1 8.9
7 Richmond 9 17 11 19 7 7 9 9
8 Dayton 13 14 14.3 15.7 7 8 8.3 9.7
9 George Mason 12 15 13.5 17.5 6 8 7.5 10.5
10 Duquesne 15 12 16.3 14.7 6 8 7.3 10.7
11 G Washington 12 15 13.9 17.1 5 9 6.9 11.1
12 La Salle 11 17 12.5 18.5 5 10 6.5 11.5
13 Massachusetts 11 16 12.8 18.2 4 10 5.8 12.2
14 Fordham 9 17 10 20 4 10 5 13

Projected Atlantic 10 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic 10 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Rhode Island 9 6.31
St Bonaventure Next 4 Out 4.378

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Atlantic 10 team. The Atlantic-10 tournament is a fourteen team tournament played at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: Rhode Island
Tournament Site: Captial One Arena (Washington, DC)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Second Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Rhode Island
100%
100%
86.6%
71.3%
49.9%
2
St Bonaventure
100%
100%
78.3%
45.7%
20.7%
3
Davidson
100%
100%
67.9%
36%
14.5%
4
St Louis
100%
100%
52.6%
12.8%
4.4%
5
VA Commonwealth
100%
55.9%
28.4%
6.7%
2.4%
6
St Joseph’s PA
100%
76.1%
27%
11%
3.4%
7
Richmond
100%
54.7%
13%
4%
1.4%
8
Dayton
100%
64.4%
10.3%
5.1%
1.6%
9
George Mason
100%
35.6%
3.1%
1.3%
0.2%
10
Duquesne
100%
45.3%
8.7%
1.9%
0.6%
11
G Washington
66.5%
15.2%
3.7%
1.2%
0.4%
12
La Salle
59.7%
25.9%
11.6%
1.7%
0.1%
13
Massachusetts
40.3%
18.2%
7.4%
1.1%
0.4%
14
Fordham
33.5%
8.7%
1.4%
0.2%
0%

Atlantic 10 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Fordham 8.2% Davidson 91.8% Davidson wins by 14
2/21 VA Commonwealth 55.5% Massachusetts 44.5% VA Commonwealth wins by 2
2/21 Duquesne 12.7% St Bonaventure 87.3% St Bonaventure wins by 12
2/21 George Mason 20.6% St Joseph’s PA 79.4% St Joseph’s PA wins by 9
2/21 Richmond 43.1% G Washington 56.9% G Washington wins by 3
2/23 Dayton 11.7% Rhode Island 88.3% Rhode Island wins by 12
2/24 Davidson 64.5% Duquesne 35.5% Davidson wins by 5
2/24 La Salle 61.1% Fordham 38.9% La Salle wins by 4
2/24 Massachusetts 43.5% George Mason 56.5% George Mason wins by 2
2/24 St Joseph’s PA 51.5% Richmond 48.5% St Joseph’s PA wins by 1
2/24 St Bonaventure 60.5% VA Commonwealth 39.5% St Bonaventure wins by 4
2/24 G Washington 26.2% St Louis 73.8% St Louis wins by 7
2/27 St Joseph’s PA 12.5% Rhode Island 87.5% Rhode Island wins by 12
2/27 Davidson 35.5% St Bonaventure 64.5% St Bonaventure wins by 5
2/28 St Louis 56.9% Duquesne 43.1% St Louis wins by 3
2/28 Fordham 21.3% G Washington 78.7% G Washington wins by 8
2/28 Dayton 44.5% La Salle 55.5% La Salle wins by 2
2/28 Massachusetts 36.9% Richmond 63.1% Richmond wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC