Atlantic 10 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic 10 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Atlantic 10 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Atlantic 10 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Davidson 8 1 24.2 6.8 0 0 13.7 4.3
2 VA Commonwealth 7 3 21.9 9.1 0 0 12.5 5.5
3 Dayton 5 4 20.8 10.2 0 0 12.5 5.5
4 St Louis 7 2 21.7 9.3 0 0 12.5 5.5
5 St Joseph’s PA 5 5 17.2 13.8 0 0 10.3 7.7
6 Duquesne 6 2 20 11 0 0 10.1 7.9
7 Rhode Island 4 3 15.7 12.3 0 0 9.7 8.3
8 Massachusetts 6 4 17 14 0 0 9.6 8.4
9 George Mason 5 6 13.6 17.4 0 0 7.7 10.3
10 Richmond 4 5 13.1 17.9 0 0 6.9 11.1
11 St Bonaventure 4 6 11 20 0 0 6.7 11.3
12 Fordham 7 2 15.7 15.3 0 0 6.4 11.6
13 G Washington 2 8 6.7 24.3 0 0 3.9 14.1
14 La Salle 0 10 4.3 24.7 0 0 3.5 14.5

Projected Atlantic 10 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic 10 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Davidson 12 4.873

Projected Atlantic 10 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic 10 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Davidson 35% 26% 12% 11% 100%
VA Commonwealth 20% 15% 18% 19% 99%
Dayton 22% 19% 28% 15% 98%
St Louis 18% 18% 20% 16% 96%
St Joseph’s PA 0% 9% 6% 8% 89%
Duquesne 3% 4% 7% 13% 87%
Rhode Island 0% 7% 5% 6% 78%
Massachusetts 2% 1% 4% 8% 77%
George Mason 0% 1% 0% 2% 27%
Richmond 0% 0% 0% 1% 18%
St Bonaventure 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%
Fordham 0% 0% 0% 1% 15%
G Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Salle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Atlantic-10 tournament is a fourteen team tournament played at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Atlantic 10 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 George Mason 18.4% St Joseph’s PA 81.6% St Joseph’s PA wins by 9
1/5 VA Commonwealth 79.7% Fordham 20.3% VA Commonwealth wins by 9
1/5 La Salle 8% Massachusetts 92% Massachusetts wins by 14
1/5 Duquesne 16.7% Davidson 83.3% Davidson wins by 10
1/6 Richmond 8% Dayton 92% Dayton wins by 14
1/6 St Bonaventure 37.6% George Mason 62.5% George Mason wins by 4
1/6 G Washington 7.4% St Joseph’s PA 92.6% St Joseph’s PA wins by 15
1/6 Rhode Island 26.7% St Louis 73.3% St Louis wins by 7
1/9 Davidson 76.7% George Mason 23.3% Davidson wins by 8
1/9 Dayton 91.7% G Washington 8.3% Dayton wins by 14
1/9 La Salle 2.3% VA Commonwealth 97.7% VA Commonwealth wins by 20
1/9 Rhode Island 65.3% Richmond 34.7% Rhode Island wins by 5
1/9 Fordham 16% Duquesne 84% Duquesne wins by 10
1/9 Massachusetts 19.1% St Louis 80.9% St Louis wins by 9
1/9 St Joseph’s PA 62.8% St Bonaventure 37.2% St Joseph’s PA wins by 5
1/12 VA Commonwealth 33.6% Davidson 66.4% Davidson wins by 6
1/12 Richmond 60.5% G Washington 39.5% Richmond wins by 4
1/12 St Joseph’s PA 44.1% Duquesne 55.9% Duquesne wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC