Atlantic Sun Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic Sun Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Atlantic Sun are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Atlantic Sun Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Lipscomb 7 2 23 6 0 0 12.5 1.5
2 North Florida 4 5 16.9 14.1 0 0 9.8 4.2
3 NJIT 9 2 20.8 10.2 0 0 9.7 4.3
4 FL Gulf Coast 3 8 11.1 19.9 0 0 6.8 7.2
5 Jacksonville 6 5 13.5 17.5 0 0 6.3 7.7
6 Kennesaw 1 8 7.1 22.9 0 0 4.7 9.3
7 Stetson 2 9 7.7 23.3 0 0 3.9 10.1
8 North Alabama 2 7 5.3 25.7 0 0 2.4 11.6

Projected Atlantic Sun Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Sun Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Lipscomb 12 4.317

Projected Atlantic Sun Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic Sun Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Lipscomb 87% 12% 1% 0% 100%
North Florida 6% 53% 34% 6% 100%
NJIT 7% 30% 48% 10% 100%
FL Gulf Coast 0% 2% 10% 46% 100%
Jacksonville 0% 3% 4% 29% 100%
Kennesaw 0% 0% 1% 6% 100%
Stetson 0% 0% 2% 2% 99%
North Alabama 0% 0% 0% 1% 94%
SC Upstate 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The nine teams in the Atlantic Sun Conference play in a standard eight-team tournament at the higher seed’s campus site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 4th, 2019
Semifinals: March 7th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Atlantic Sun Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/5 North Alabama 1.5% North Florida 98.5% North Florida wins by 21
1/5 Lipscomb 92% Jacksonville 8% Lipscomb wins by 14
1/5 Kennesaw 8.2% NJIT 91.8% NJIT wins by 14
1/8 FL Gulf Coast 76.7% North Alabama 23.3% FL Gulf Coast wins by 8
1/9 North Florida 13.7% Lipscomb 86.4% Lipscomb wins by 11
1/9 Jacksonville 55.1% Kennesaw 44.9% Jacksonville wins by 2
1/12 FL Gulf Coast 15.8% North Florida 84.2% North Florida wins by 11
1/12 NJIT 92% North Alabama 8% NJIT wins by 14
1/12 Stetson 1.3% Lipscomb 98.7% Lipscomb wins by 23
1/16 North Alabama 12.7% Jacksonville 87.3% Jacksonville wins by 12
1/16 North Florida 83.3% Stetson 16.7% North Florida wins by 10
1/16 Lipscomb 69.9% NJIT 30.1% Lipscomb wins by 6
1/19 Stetson 56.7% North Alabama 43.3% Stetson wins by 3
1/19 Jacksonville 15% NJIT 85% NJIT wins by 11
1/19 FL Gulf Coast 57.1% Kennesaw 42.9% FL Gulf Coast wins by 3
1/21 Stetson 17.4% FL Gulf Coast 82.6% FL Gulf Coast wins by 10
1/21 NJIT 40.2% North Florida 59.8% North Florida wins by 4
1/21 Kennesaw 1.4% Lipscomb 98.6% Lipscomb wins by 22

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC