Atlantic Sun Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Atlantic Sun Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Atlantic Sun are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Atlantic Sun Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Liberty 23 5 25.3 5.7 12 1 14.3 1.7
2 Lipscomb 21 6 22.8 6.2 12 2 13.8 2.2
3 FL Gulf Coast 12 17 13.4 17.6 7 7 8.4 7.6
4 North Florida 13 16 14.2 16.8 7 7 8.2 7.8
5 NJIT 19 9 20 11 7 6 8 8
6 North Alabama 9 19 10.1 20.9 6 7 7.1 8.9
7 Jacksonville 12 16 13.5 17.5 5 8 6.5 9.5
8 Stetson 6 22 7 24 2 11 3 13
9 Kennesaw 4 23 4.7 25.3 2 11 2.7 13.3

Projected Atlantic Sun Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Atlantic Sun Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Liberty 13 3.061
Lipscomb Last 4 Out 3.802

Projected Atlantic Sun Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Atlantic Sun Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Liberty 72% 28% 0% 0% 100%
Lipscomb 28% 72% 0% 0% 100%
FL Gulf Coast 0% 0% 45% 32% 100%
North Florida 0% 0% 27% 36% 100%
NJIT 0% 0% 18% 23% 100%
North Alabama 0% 0% 6% 8% 100%
Jacksonville 0% 0% 4% 1% 100%
Stetson 0% 0% 0% 0% 58%
Kennesaw 0% 0% 0% 0% 42%

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The top eight of nine teams in the Atlantic Sun Conference play in a standard eight-team tournament at the higher seed’s campus site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 4th, 2019
Semifinals: March 7th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
Liberty
95.5%
81.3%
53.8%
2
Lipscomb
95.9%
79.5%
39.4%
3
FL Gulf Coast
63.8%
12.9%
2%
4
North Florida
58.7%
14.5%
2.3%
5
NJIT
54.1%
9%
2.4%
6
North Alabama
12.8%
0.8%
0%
7
Jacksonville
15.6%
1.4%
0.1%
8
Stetson
2.1%
0.4%
0%
9
Kennesaw
1.5%
0.2%
0%

Atlantic Sun Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 NJIT 57.5% Jacksonville 42.5% NJIT wins by 3
2/23 North Alabama 54% Stetson 46% North Alabama wins by 2
2/23 Kennesaw 10.6% FL Gulf Coast 89.4% FL Gulf Coast wins by 13
2/23 Liberty 67.2% North Florida 32.8% Liberty wins by 6
2/25 NJIT 12.2% Lipscomb 87.8% Lipscomb wins by 12
2/26 Jacksonville 51.8% North Alabama 48.2% Jacksonville wins by 1
2/26 Stetson 10.8% North Florida 89.2% North Florida wins by 13
2/26 Kennesaw 1.4% Liberty 98.6% Liberty wins by 22
3/1 FL Gulf Coast 49.3% Jacksonville 50.7% Jacksonville wins by 1
3/1 Lipscomb 89.4% North Alabama 10.6% Lipscomb wins by 13
3/1 Stetson 45.6% Kennesaw 54.4% Kennesaw wins by 2
3/1 Liberty 65.3% NJIT 34.7% Liberty wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC