Auburn Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Auburn Tigers. All of these projections for Auburn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Auburn Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 20.5-8.5

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 3

Auburn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 19
RPI Rank: 13
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Auburn Tigers a 90.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 9.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Auburn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 21.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 33.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 2.2%
NIT #6 Seed 2.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Auburn Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Auburn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 266 South Alabama Home W 101-58
11/9 55 Washington Home W 88-66
11/14 No Rank Mississippi Col Home 99.7%
11/19 50 Xavier Neutral 74.3%
11/28 212 St Peter’s Home 97.1%
12/4 163 UNC Asheville Home 93.4%
12/8 179 Dayton Home 93%
12/15 86 UAB Away 63.4%
12/19 25 NC State Away 42.7%
12/22 62 Murray St Home 82.6%
12/29 262 North Florida Home 98.5%
1/9 91 Mississippi Away 60.8%
1/12 49 Georgia Home 78.2%
1/16 70 Texas A&M Away 58.5%
1/19 11 Kentucky Home 44.5%
1/22 112 South Carolina Away 63.4%
1/26 32 Mississippi St Away 46.3%
1/30 89 Missouri Home 85.7%
2/2 57 Alabama Home 81.1%
2/5 48 Florida Home 79.4%
2/9 51 LSU Away 56.3%
2/13 91 Mississippi Home 84.7%
2/16 30 Vanderbilt Away 42.2%
2/20 58 Arkansas Home 79.7%
2/23 11 Kentucky Away 20.1%
2/27 49 Georgia Away 53.7%
3/2 32 Mississippi St Home 69.5%
3/5 57 Alabama Away 56.5%
3/9 7 Tennessee Home 42.9%