Auburn Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Auburn Tigers. All of these projections for Auburn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Auburn Record and Rankings

Record: 23-4
Projected Final Record: 25.8-5.2

SEC Conference Record: 11-3
Projected Final SEC Record: 13.8-4.2
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 1

Auburn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 8
RPI Rank: 7
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 7-3 5-1 6-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.700 0.833 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Auburn Tigers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Auburn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 33.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 44.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Auburn Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Auburn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 299 Norfolk St Home W 102-74
11/16 170 Indiana St Charleston, SC W 83-64
11/17 75 Temple Charleston, SC L 74-88
11/19 139 Hofstra Charleston, SC W 89-78
11/24 138 Winthrop Home W 119-85
11/29 143 Dayton Away W 73-60
12/3 200 George Mason Home W 79-63
12/6 281 Gardner Webb Home W 80-55
12/9 148 UAB Home W 85-80
12/16 48 MTSU Birmingham, AL W 76-70
12/19 72 Murray St Away W 81-77
12/23 129 Connecticut Home W 89-64
12/30 254 Cornell Home W 98-77
1/2 15 Tennessee Away W 94-84
1/6 25 Arkansas Home W 88-77
1/9 97 Mississippi Home W 85-70
1/13 50 Mississippi St Away W 76-68
1/17 40 Alabama Away L 71-76
1/20 58 Georgia Home W 79-65
1/24 38 Missouri Away W 91-73
1/27 57 LSU Home W 95-70
1/30 97 Mississippi Away W 79-70
2/3 84 Vanderbilt Home W 93-81
2/7 27 Texas A&M Home L 80-81
2/10 58 Georgia Away W 78-61
2/14 28 Kentucky Home W 76-66
2/17 71 South Carolina Away L 75-84
2/21 40 Alabama Home 82.3%
2/24 35 Florida Away 51.8%
2/27 25 Arkansas Away 55.5%
3/3 71 South Carolina Home 87.3%