Auburn Tigers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Auburn Tigers. All of these projections for Auburn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Auburn Record and Rankings

Record: 26-9
Projected Final Record: 26.0-9.0

SEC Conference Record: 11-7
Projected Final SEC Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 5

Auburn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 16
RPI Rank: 21
NET Rank: 18
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-6 8-3 7-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.727 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Auburn Tigers a 99.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Auburn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 24.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 56.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 9.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Auburn Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Auburn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 207 South Alabama Home W 101-58
11/9 42 Washington Home W 88-66
11/14 No Rank Mississippi Col Home W 103-52
11/19 60 Xavier Neutal W 88-79
11/20 2 Duke Neutral L 72-78
11/21 108 Arizona Neutal W 73-57
11/28 311 St Peter’s Home W 99-49
12/4 349 UNC Asheville Home W 67-41
12/8 81 Dayton Home W 82-72
12/15 139 UAB Neutal W 75-71
12/19 33 NC State Away L 71-78
12/22 50 Murray St Home W 93-88
12/29 180 North Florida Home W 95-49
1/9 38 Mississippi Away L 67-82
1/12 124 Georgia Home W 93-78
1/16 78 Texas A&M Away W 85-66
1/19 5 Kentucky Home L 80-82
1/22 65 South Carolina Away L 77-80
1/26 21 Mississippi St Away L 84-92
1/30 73 Missouri Home W 92-58
2/2 54 Alabama Home W 84-63
2/5 29 Florida Home W 76-62
2/9 13 LSU Away L 78-83
2/13 38 Mississippi Home L 55-60
2/16 161 Vanderbilt Away W 64-53
2/20 63 Arkansas Home W 79-56
2/23 5 Kentucky Away L 53-80
2/27 124 Georgia Away W 78-75
3/2 21 Mississippi St Home W 80-75
3/5 54 Alabama Away W 66-60
3/9 3 Tennessee Home W 84-80
3/14 73 Missouri Neutal W 81-71
3/15 65 South Carolina Neutal W 73-64
3/16 29 Florida Neutal W 65-62
3/17 3 Tennessee Neutal W 84-64