Ball State Cardinals Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Ball State Cardinals. All of these projections for Ball St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Ball St Record and Rankings

Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 19.4-11.6

MAC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final MAC Record: 10.4-7.6
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 4

Ball St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 93
RPI Rank: 108
NET Rank: 87
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 2-1 3-3 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.667 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Ball State Cardinals a 10.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 10.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 79.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Ball St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 2.2%
NIT #5 Seed 3.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Ball State Cardinals. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Ball St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 171 Indiana St Home W 86-69
11/10 15 Purdue Away L 75-84
11/15 11 Virginia Tech Neutral L 64-73
11/16 49 Alabama Neutral L 61-79
11/18 303 Appalachian St Neutal W 94-86
11/24 175 Evansville Home W 82-72
11/27 No Rank Tiffin Home W 108-62
12/1 193 IUPUI Away W 85-75
12/5 100 Loyola-Chicago Away W 75-69
12/9 175 Evansville Away L 77-89
12/17 165 Valparaiso Away W 77-61
12/20 322 Howard Home W 98-71
12/29 350 Delaware St Home W 116-57
1/4 62 Toledo Away W 79-64
1/8 162 E Michigan Home L 82-84
1/12 150 Ohio Home L 52-70
1/15 117 Bowling Green Away L 78-79
1/19 133 C Michigan Away W 83-72
1/22 180 Miami OH Home 83.3%
1/26 150 Ohio Away 60.8%
1/29 9 Buffalo Away 8.6%
2/2 116 Kent Home 68%
2/5 144 N Illinois Away 57.1%
2/9 252 W Michigan Home 90.3%
2/16 158 Akron Home 76.2%
2/19 180 Miami OH Away 63.4%
2/23 133 C Michigan Home 73.3%
2/26 62 Toledo Home 49.6%
3/2 252 W Michigan Away 73.4%
3/5 162 E Michigan Away 59.5%
3/8 144 N Illinois Home 74.3%