Baylor Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Baylor Bears. All of these projections for Baylor are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Baylor Record and Rankings

Record: 10-6
Projected Final Record: 15.8-15.2

Big 12 Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 7.2-10.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 8

Baylor Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 58
RPI Rank: 109
NET Rank: 61
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-4 1-0 2-0 5-2
Win % by Tier 0.333 1.000 1.000 0.714

Our current projections give the Baylor Bears a 14.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 41.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 44.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Baylor’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.2%
NIT #2 Seed 6.0%
NIT #3 Seed 6.2%
NIT #4 Seed 7.8%
NIT #5 Seed 8.4%
NIT #6 Seed 6.0%
NIT #7 Seed 1.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Baylor Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Baylor Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 185 TX Southern Home L 69-72
11/10 350 Southern Univ Home W 80-53
11/12 271 Prairie View Home W 91-80
11/16 284 Nicholls St Home W 81-54
11/23 28 Mississippi Neutral L 70-78
11/24 135 George Mason Neutal W 72-61
11/27 213 South Dakota Home W 63-57
12/1 97 Wichita St Away L 63-71
12/15 44 Arizona Away W 58-49
12/18 257 SF Austin Home L 58-59
12/21 81 Oregon Home W 57-47
12/29 208 New Orleans Home W 84-44
1/5 27 TCU Away L 81-85
1/8 18 Iowa St Home W 73-70
1/12 7 Kansas Home L 68-73
1/14 74 Oklahoma St Away W 73-69
1/19 8 Texas Tech Home 35.5%
1/21 93 West Virginia Away 49.3%
1/26 50 Alabama Home 57.5%
1/28 22 Oklahoma Away 18.9%
2/2 27 TCU Home 42.2%
2/6 39 Texas Away 28.6%
2/9 32 Kansas St Home 47.4%
2/11 22 Oklahoma Home 42.9%
2/16 8 Texas Tech Away 14.8%
2/19 18 Iowa St Away 17.2%
2/23 93 West Virginia Home 69.5%
2/27 39 Texas Home 50%
3/2 32 Kansas St Away 27.2%
3/6 74 Oklahoma St Home 63.8%
3/9 7 Kansas Away 13.9%