Baylor Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Baylor Bears. All of these projections for Baylor are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Baylor Record and Rankings

Record: 19-13
Projected Final Record: 19.0-13.0

Big 12 Conference Record: 10-8
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 10.0-8.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 4

Baylor Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 44
RPI Rank: 58
NET Rank: 39
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-9 9-1 3-1 4-2
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.900 0.750 0.667

Our current projections give the Baylor Bears a 89.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 9.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Baylor’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 22.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 33.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 17.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.0%
NIT #2 Seed 1.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Baylor Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Baylor Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 211 TX Southern Home L 69-72
11/10 338 Southern Univ Home W 80-53
11/12 187 Prairie View Home W 91-80
11/16 309 Nicholls St Home W 81-54
11/23 38 Mississippi Neutral L 70-78
11/24 150 George Mason Neutal W 72-61
11/27 249 South Dakota Home W 63-57
12/1 74 Wichita St Away L 63-71
12/15 108 Arizona Away W 58-49
12/18 298 SF Austin Home L 58-59
12/21 57 Oregon Home W 57-47
12/29 220 New Orleans Home W 84-44
1/5 43 TCU Away L 81-85
1/8 23 Iowa St Home W 73-70
1/12 15 Kansas Home L 68-73
1/14 76 Oklahoma St Away W 73-69
1/19 11 Texas Tech Home W 73-62
1/21 77 West Virginia Away W 85-73
1/26 54 Alabama Home W 73-68
1/28 37 Oklahoma Away W 77-47
2/2 43 TCU Home W 90-64
2/6 40 Texas Away L 72-84
2/9 20 Kansas St Home L 63-70
2/11 37 Oklahoma Home W 59-53
2/16 11 Texas Tech Away L 61-86
2/19 23 Iowa St Away W 73-69
2/23 77 West Virginia Home W 82-75
2/27 40 Texas Home W 84-83
3/2 20 Kansas St Away L 60-66
3/6 76 Oklahoma St Home L 64-67
3/9 15 Kansas Away L 70-78
3/14 23 Iowa St Neutral L 66-83