Baylor Bears Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Baylor Bears. All of these projections for Baylor are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Baylor Record and Rankings

Record: 19-15
Projected Final Record: 19.0-15.0

Big 12 Conference Record: 8-11
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 8.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 6

Baylor Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 35
RPI Rank: 68
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-12 3-1 3-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.750 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Baylor Bears a 45.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 54.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Baylor’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 14.4%
NIT #2 Seed 24.0%
NIT #3 Seed 15.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Baylor Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Baylor Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 216 Cent Arkansas Home W 107-66
11/13 317 TAM C. Christi Home W 70-46
11/17 341 Alcorn St Home W 78-61
11/20 75 Wisconsin Kansas City, MO W 70-65
11/21 28 Creighton Kansas City, MO W 65-59
11/28 8 Xavier Away L 63-76
12/2 18 Wichita St Home L 62-69
12/4 219 Sam Houston St Home W 84-56
12/9 No Rank Randall Fort Hood, TX W 105-82
12/14 264 TX Southern Home W 99-68
12/17 297 Savannah St Home W 118-86
12/20 329 Southern Univ Home W 80-60
12/29 15 Texas Tech Away L 53-77
1/2 22 TCU Home L 78-81
1/6 32 Texas Home W 69-60
1/9 13 West Virginia Away L 54-57
1/13 92 Iowa St Away L 65-75
1/15 37 Oklahoma St Home W 76-60
1/20 7 Kansas Away L 67-70
1/22 25 Kansas St Home L 83-90
1/27 23 Florida Away L 60-81
1/30 40 Oklahoma Away L 96-98
2/3 92 Iowa St Home W 81-67
2/6 37 Oklahoma St Away W 67-56
2/10 7 Kansas Home W 80-64
2/12 32 Texas Away W 74-73
2/17 15 Texas Tech Home W 59-57
2/20 13 West Virginia Home L 60-71
2/24 22 TCU Away L 72-82
2/27 40 Oklahoma Home W 87-64
3/3 25 Kansas St Away L 67-77
3/8 13 West Virginia Kansas City, MO L 65-78
3/13 179 Wagner Home W 80-59
3/18 51 Mississippi St Home L 77-78