Baylor Bears Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Baylor Bears. All of these projections for Baylor are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Baylor Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 15.2-14.8

Big 12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 7.6-10.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 9

Baylor Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 83
RPI Rank: 216
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Baylor Bears a 67.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 25.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Baylor’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 17.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 17.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 20.6%
NIT #2 Seed 3.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Baylor Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Baylor Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 137 TX Southern Home L 69-72
11/10 316 Southern Univ Home W 80-53
11/12 181 Prairie View Home 86.4%
11/16 242 Nicholls St Home 92.6%
11/23 91 Mississippi Neutral 53.7%
11/27 121 South Dakota Home 80.6%
12/1 88 Wichita St Away 49.3%
12/15 24 Arizona Away 21.3%
12/18 125 SF Austin Home 82.6%
12/21 15 Oregon Home 36.6%
12/29 300 New Orleans Home 98.5%
1/5 59 TCU Away 35.1%
1/8 60 Iowa St Home 51.5%
1/12 6 Kansas Home 30.9%
1/14 87 Oklahoma St Away 43.3%
1/19 29 Texas Tech Home 45.2%
1/21 44 West Virginia Away 33.6%
1/26 57 Alabama Home 57.3%
1/28 74 Oklahoma Away 39.2%
2/2 59 TCU Home 56.3%
2/6 54 Texas Away 35.9%
2/9 46 Kansas St Home 56.3%
2/11 74 Oklahoma Home 59.2%
2/16 29 Texas Tech Away 22.3%
2/19 60 Iowa St Away 29.4%
2/23 44 West Virginia Home 55.5%
2/27 54 Texas Home 56.5%
3/2 46 Kansas St Away 35.1%
3/6 87 Oklahoma St Home 63.8%
3/9 6 Kansas Away 10.6%