These are the latest Big 12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big 12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.
Big 12 Projected Standings
| Rank | Team | All Games | Conference Games | Actual | Projected | Actual | Projected | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | ||
| 1 | Kansas St | 19 | 5 | 23.4 | 7.6 | 9 | 2 | 13.4 | 4.6 |
| 2 | Kansas | 19 | 6 | 23.2 | 7.8 | 8 | 4 | 12.2 | 5.8 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 20 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| 4 | Iowa St | 18 | 6 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 7 | 4 | 11.4 | 6.6 |
| 5 | Baylor | 16 | 8 | 19.1 | 11.9 | 7 | 4 | 10.1 | 7.9 |
| 6 | Texas | 14 | 11 | 16.9 | 14.1 | 6 | 6 | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| 7 | TCU | 17 | 7 | 20.7 | 10.3 | 5 | 6 | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 15 | 10 | 17.7 | 13.3 | 3 | 9 | 5.7 | 12.3 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St | 9 | 15 | 10.9 | 20.1 | 2 | 9 | 3.9 | 14.1 |
| 10 | West Virginia | 10 | 14 | 11.8 | 19.2 | 2 | 9 | 3.8 | 14.2 |
Projected Big 12 Tournament Bids
Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big 12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.
| Team | Seed | Bracket Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 2 | 12.225 |
| Kansas St | 4 | 9.907 |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 9.678 |
| Iowa St | 5 | 9.109 |
| TCU | 7 | 6.975 |
| Texas | 7 | 6.868 |
| Baylor | 9 | 6.634 |
| Oklahoma | Last 4 Out | 3.788 |
Projected Big 12 Regular Season Finish
Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big 12 Conference standings.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St | 63% | 25% | 7% | 5% | 100% |
| Kansas | 15% | 24% | 40% | 17% | 100% |
| Texas Tech | 11% | 31% | 24% | 25% | 100% |
| Iowa St | 11% | 15% | 20% | 21% | 100% |
| Baylor | 0% | 3% | 6% | 19% | 100% |
| Texas | 0% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 99% |
| TCU | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 100% |
| Oklahoma | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 74% |
| Oklahoma St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| West Virginia | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions
Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big 12 uses a standard ten team tournament at a neutral site.
Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Sprint Center (Kansas City, MO)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019
| Seed | Team | To Advance To | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qtrs | Semis | Finals | To Win | ||
Big 12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections
Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.
| Date | Away Team | Away Prob to Win | Home Team | Home Prob to Win | Game Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/16 | Iowa St | 43.5% | Kansas St | 56.5% | Kansas St wins by 2 |
| 2/16 | Oklahoma St | 17.4% | Texas | 82.6% | Texas wins by 10 |
| 2/16 | West Virginia | 8% | Kansas | 92% | Kansas wins by 14 |
| 2/16 | Baylor | 19.6% | Texas Tech | 80.4% | Texas Tech wins by 9 |
| 2/16 | Oklahoma | 37.2% | TCU | 62.8% | TCU wins by 5 |
| 2/18 | Kansas St | 68% | West Virginia | 32.1% | Kansas St wins by 6 |
| 2/18 | TCU | 60.8% | Oklahoma St | 39.2% | TCU wins by 4 |
| 2/19 | Baylor | 20.6% | Iowa St | 79.4% | Iowa St wins by 9 |
| 2/23 | Kansas | 42.7% | Texas Tech | 57.3% | Texas Tech wins by 3 |
| 2/23 | Oklahoma St | 14.1% | Kansas St | 85.9% | Kansas St wins by 11 |
| 2/23 | Iowa St | 53.7% | TCU | 46.3% | Iowa St wins by 1 |
| 2/23 | West Virginia | 17.7% | Baylor | 82.3% | Baylor wins by 10 |
| 2/23 | Texas | 42.7% | Oklahoma | 57.3% | Oklahoma wins by 3 |
| 2/25 | Kansas St | 30.9% | Kansas | 69.1% | Kansas wins by 6 |
| 2/25 | Oklahoma | 20.8% | Iowa St | 79.2% | Iowa St wins by 8 |
| 2/26 | TCU | 61.8% | West Virginia | 38.2% | TCU wins by 4 |
| 2/27 | Oklahoma St | 11.1% | Texas Tech | 88.9% | Texas Tech wins by 12 |
| 2/27 | Texas | 42.7% | Baylor | 57.3% | Baylor wins by 3 |
Projections in Other Conferences
For other conferences, please see below.