Big 12 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big 12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big 12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Big 12 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Kansas 8 0 26.5 4.5 0 0 14.4 3.6
2 Texas Tech 8 0 24.9 6.1 0 0 12.8 5.2
3 Oklahoma 8 1 21.8 9.2 0 0 10.7 7.3
4 Iowa St 8 2 19.7 11.3 0 0 9.4 8.6
5 Kansas St 6 2 18.6 12.4 0 0 8.7 9.3
6 TCU 7 1 18.5 11.5 0 0 8.1 9.9
7 Texas 6 3 17.3 13.7 0 0 8.1 9.9
8 Oklahoma St 4 5 13.5 17.5 0 0 6.6 11.4
9 West Virginia 6 3 14.9 16.1 0 0 6.5 11.5
10 Baylor 5 3 12.4 18.6 0 0 4.7 13.3

Projected Big 12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big 12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Kansas 1 14.852
Texas Tech 3 8.841
Oklahoma 4 8.739
Texas 8 6.283
Kansas St 9 6.102
Iowa St 10 5.944
TCU 10 5.933

Projected Big 12 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big 12 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Kansas 77% 10% 11% 0% 100%
Texas Tech 15% 59% 20% 4% 100%
Oklahoma 5% 15% 31% 18% 99%
Iowa St 0% 5% 18% 19% 95%
Kansas St 3% 3% 10% 23% 91%
TCU 0% 5% 4% 15% 86%
Texas 0% 2% 5% 12% 85%
Oklahoma St 0% 1% 1% 5% 62%
West Virginia 0% 0% 0% 4% 57%
Baylor 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%

Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big 12 uses a standard ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Sprint Center (Kansas City, MO)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Big 12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Iowa St 56.5% Oklahoma St 43.5% Iowa St wins by 2
1/2 Texas 36.9% Kansas St 63.1% Kansas St wins by 5
1/2 Texas Tech 73.4% West Virginia 26.6% Texas Tech wins by 7
1/2 Oklahoma 14.6% Kansas 85.4% Kansas wins by 11
1/5 Kansas 68.3% Iowa St 31.7% Kansas wins by 6
1/5 Kansas St 14.8% Texas Tech 85.2% Texas Tech wins by 11
1/5 West Virginia 29.4% Texas 70.6% Texas wins by 7
1/5 Baylor 17.2% TCU 82.8% TCU wins by 10
1/5 Oklahoma St 15.8% Oklahoma 84.2% Oklahoma wins by 11
1/8 Texas 48.5% Oklahoma St 51.5% Oklahoma St wins by 1
1/8 Iowa St 63.4% Baylor 36.6% Iowa St wins by 5
1/8 Oklahoma 21.3% Texas Tech 78.7% Texas Tech wins by 8
1/9 TCU 8% Kansas 92% Kansas wins by 14
1/9 West Virginia 24.7% Kansas St 75.3% Kansas St wins by 8
1/12 Kansas St 36.2% Iowa St 63.8% Iowa St wins by 5
1/12 Texas Tech 64.5% Texas 35.5% Texas Tech wins by 5
1/12 Oklahoma St 39.9% West Virginia 60.1% West Virginia wins by 4
1/12 Kansas 90.6% Baylor 9.4% Kansas wins by 13

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC