Big 12 Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big 12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big 12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Big 12 Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Kansas 22 6 23.8 7.2 11 4 12.8 5.2
2 Texas Tech 22 5 24.4 6.6 10 4 12.4 5.6
3 West Virginia 20 8 22 9 9 6 11 7
4 Kansas St 19 8 20.8 10.2 8 6 9.8 8.2
5 Baylor 17 11 18.4 12.6 7 8 8.4 9.6
6 TCU 18 9 20.2 10.8 6 8 8.2 9.8
7 Texas 16 11 17.9 13.1 6 8 7.9 10.1
8 Oklahoma 16 11 17.8 12.2 6 9 7.8 10.2
9 Oklahoma St 15 12 16.5 14.5 5 9 6.5 11.5
10 Iowa St 13 13 14.2 15.8 4 10 5.2 12.8

Projected Big 12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big 12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Kansas 1 10.889
Texas Tech 3 9.317
West Virginia 4 8.671
Oklahoma 6 6.956
TCU 7 6.606
Kansas St 9 6.278
Baylor 10 5.902
Texas 10 5.845

Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big 12 team. The Big 12 uses a standard ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Sprint Center (Kansas City, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Kansas
100%
69.4%
44.8%
24%
2
Texas Tech
100%
71.2%
39.2%
24.7%
3
West Virginia
100%
55.3%
27.5%
14.3%
4
Kansas St
100%
45.3%
16.2%
6.5%
5
Baylor
100%
54.7%
22.7%
9.4%
6
TCU
100%
44.7%
21.6%
9.9%
7
Texas
67.8%
23%
9.6%
4.3%
8
Oklahoma
63.3%
22.7%
12.5%
5.4%
9
Oklahoma St
36.7%
7.9%
3.8%
0.7%
10
Iowa St
32.2%
5.8%
2.1%
0.8%

Big 12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 TCU 61.8% Iowa St 38.2% TCU wins by 4
2/21 Texas 41.8% Kansas St 58.2% Kansas St wins by 3
2/21 Texas Tech 62.8% Oklahoma St 37.2% Texas Tech wins by 5
2/24 Iowa St 14.1% West Virginia 85.9% West Virginia wins by 11
2/24 Kansas St 37.2% Oklahoma 62.8% Oklahoma wins by 5
2/24 Baylor 36.2% TCU 63.8% TCU wins by 5
2/24 Oklahoma St 26.2% Texas 73.8% Texas wins by 7
2/24 Kansas 38.2% Texas Tech 61.8% Texas Tech wins by 4
2/26 Texas Tech 43.3% West Virginia 56.7% West Virginia wins by 3
2/26 Texas 23.3% Kansas 76.7% Kansas wins by 8
2/27 Oklahoma 39.5% Baylor 60.5% Baylor wins by 4
2/27 Oklahoma St 46.7% Iowa St 53.3% Iowa St wins by 1
2/27 Kansas St 30.5% TCU 69.5% TCU wins by 6
3/2 Iowa St 18.2% Oklahoma 81.8% Oklahoma wins by 10
3/3 Baylor 43.5% Kansas St 56.5% Kansas St wins by 2
3/3 Kansas 61.8% Oklahoma St 38.2% Kansas wins by 4
3/3 West Virginia 52.6% Texas 47.4% West Virginia wins by 1
3/3 TCU 29.4% Texas Tech 70.6% Texas Tech wins by 7

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC