Big 12 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big 12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big 12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

Big 12 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Kansas St 19 5 23.4 7.6 9 2 13.4 4.6
2 Kansas 19 6 23.2 7.8 8 4 12.2 5.8
3 Texas Tech 20 5 24 7 8 4 12 6
4 Iowa St 18 6 22.4 8.6 7 4 11.4 6.6
5 Baylor 16 8 19.1 11.9 7 4 10.1 7.9
6 Texas 14 11 16.9 14.1 6 6 8.9 9.1
7 TCU 17 7 20.7 10.3 5 6 8.7 9.3
8 Oklahoma 15 10 17.7 13.3 3 9 5.7 12.3
9 Oklahoma St 9 15 10.9 20.1 2 9 3.9 14.1
10 West Virginia 10 14 11.8 19.2 2 9 3.8 14.2

Projected Big 12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big 12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Kansas 2 12.225
Kansas St 4 9.907
Texas Tech 4 9.678
Iowa St 5 9.109
TCU 7 6.975
Texas 7 6.868
Baylor 9 6.634
Oklahoma Last 4 Out 3.788

Projected Big 12 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big 12 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Kansas St 63% 25% 7% 5% 100%
Kansas 15% 24% 40% 17% 100%
Texas Tech 11% 31% 24% 25% 100%
Iowa St 11% 15% 20% 21% 100%
Baylor 0% 3% 6% 19% 100%
Texas 0% 1% 1% 9% 99%
TCU 0% 1% 2% 4% 100%
Oklahoma 0% 0% 0% 0% 74%
Oklahoma St 0% 0% 0% 0% 17%
West Virginia 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%

Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big 12 uses a standard ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Sprint Center (Kansas City, MO)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Kansas St
100%
62.9%
28.5%
13%
2
Kansas
100%
67.5%
41%
21.6%
3
Texas Tech
100%
66.3%
38.1%
22.5%
4
Iowa St
99%
65.7%
39.4%
22.3%
5
Baylor
99.1%
33.4%
13.2%
5.2%
6
Texas
85.4%
33.5%
12.8%
6.5%
7
TCU
88.8%
33.1%
13.8%
5.3%
8
Oklahoma
67.8%
25.8%
10.7%
3.1%
9
Oklahoma St
31.5%
6.7%
1.3%
0.2%
10
West Virginia
28.4%
5.1%
1.2%
0.3%

Big 12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/16 Iowa St 43.5% Kansas St 56.5% Kansas St wins by 2
2/16 Oklahoma St 17.4% Texas 82.6% Texas wins by 10
2/16 West Virginia 8% Kansas 92% Kansas wins by 14
2/16 Baylor 19.6% Texas Tech 80.4% Texas Tech wins by 9
2/16 Oklahoma 37.2% TCU 62.8% TCU wins by 5
2/18 Kansas St 68% West Virginia 32.1% Kansas St wins by 6
2/18 TCU 60.8% Oklahoma St 39.2% TCU wins by 4
2/19 Baylor 20.6% Iowa St 79.4% Iowa St wins by 9
2/23 Kansas 42.7% Texas Tech 57.3% Texas Tech wins by 3
2/23 Oklahoma St 14.1% Kansas St 85.9% Kansas St wins by 11
2/23 Iowa St 53.7% TCU 46.3% Iowa St wins by 1
2/23 West Virginia 17.7% Baylor 82.3% Baylor wins by 10
2/23 Texas 42.7% Oklahoma 57.3% Oklahoma wins by 3
2/25 Kansas St 30.9% Kansas 69.1% Kansas wins by 6
2/25 Oklahoma 20.8% Iowa St 79.2% Iowa St wins by 8
2/26 TCU 61.8% West Virginia 38.2% TCU wins by 4
2/27 Oklahoma St 11.1% Texas Tech 88.9% Texas Tech wins by 12
2/27 Texas 42.7% Baylor 57.3% Baylor wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC