Big East Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big East Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big East are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Big East Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Villanova 8 2 22 9 0 0 12.4 5.6
2 Marquette 8 2 22.1 8.9 0 0 11.6 6.4
3 Butler 7 2 19.9 11.1 0 0 10.4 7.6
4 St John’s 9 0 22 9 0 0 10 8
5 Creighton 6 3 18.7 12.3 0 0 9.6 8.4
6 Xavier 6 4 16.5 14.5 0 0 8.1 9.9
7 Seton Hall 7 3 16.8 14.2 0 0 8 10
8 Georgetown 7 2 17.9 13.1 0 0 7.3 10.7
9 Providence 7 3 16.1 14.9 0 0 7 11
10 DePaul 5 2 14 15 0 0 5.7 12.3

Projected Big East Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big East Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Villanova 4 8.672
Marquette 5 7.686
Butler 8 6.253
Creighton 9 6.049
St John’s 10 5.837
Seton Hall Last 4 Out 4.811
Xavier Next 4 Out 4.566

Projected Big East Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big East Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Villanova 51% 23% 13% 5% 100%
Marquette 28% 28% 16% 7% 100%
Butler 6% 15% 21% 18% 98%
St John’s 6% 10% 14% 20% 94%
Creighton 7% 12% 14% 20% 94%
Xavier 0% 5% 8% 16% 76%
Seton Hall 2% 3% 8% 2% 81%
Georgetown 0% 3% 1% 9% 70%
Providence 0% 1% 5% 1% 59%
DePaul 0% 0% 0% 2% 28%

Big East Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big East Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big East Men’s Conference Championship features a ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Big East Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/29 Xavier 53.7% DePaul 46.3% Xavier wins by 1
12/29 St John’s 50% Seton Hall 50% St John’s wins by 1
12/31 Creighton 54% Providence 46% Creighton wins by 2
1/1 Marquette 47.8% St John’s 52.2% St John’s wins by 1
1/2 Georgetown 19.1% Butler 80.9% Butler wins by 9
1/2 Seton Hall 37.9% Xavier 62.1% Xavier wins by 4
1/2 DePaul 8.2% Villanova 91.8% Villanova wins by 14
1/5 St John’s 53.7% Georgetown 46.3% St John’s wins by 1
1/5 Villanova 62.8% Providence 37.2% Villanova wins by 5
1/5 Creighton 35.1% Butler 64.9% Butler wins by 5
1/6 Seton Hall 52.2% DePaul 47.8% Seton Hall wins by 1
1/6 Xavier 17.4% Marquette 82.6% Marquette wins by 10
1/8 St John’s 20.3% Villanova 79.7% Villanova wins by 9
1/9 Butler 51.8% Seton Hall 48.2% Butler wins by 1
1/9 Georgetown 34.4% Xavier 65.6% Xavier wins by 5
1/9 Marquette 49.3% Creighton 50.7% Creighton wins by 1
1/12 DePaul 15.3% St John’s 84.7% St John’s wins by 11
1/12 Providence 36.9% Georgetown 63.1% Georgetown wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC