Big East Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big East Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big East are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

Big East Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Villanova 20 5 24 7 11 1 15 3
2 Marquette 21 4 25.1 5.9 10 2 14.1 3.9
3 St John’s 18 7 21.5 9.5 6 6 9.5 8.5
4 Seton Hall 15 9 17.9 12.1 6 6 8.9 9.1
5 Butler 14 11 17.1 13.9 5 7 8.1 9.9
6 DePaul 13 10 15.4 13.6 5 7 7.4 10.6
7 Georgetown 15 10 17.4 13.6 5 7 7.4 10.6
8 Creighton 13 12 16.3 14.7 4 8 7.3 10.7
9 Providence 14 11 16.7 14.3 4 8 6.7 11.3
10 Xavier 12 13 13.6 17.4 4 8 5.6 12.4

Projected Big East Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big East Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Marquette 4 10.864
Villanova 5 9.23
St John’s 10 5.598
Seton Hall 11 4.835
Butler Next 4 Out 3.669

Projected Big East Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big East Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Villanova 73% 27% 0% 0% 100%
Marquette 27% 73% 0% 0% 100%
St John’s 0% 0% 56% 24% 100%
Seton Hall 0% 0% 29% 24% 100%
Butler 0% 0% 3% 17% 92%
DePaul 0% 0% 7% 10% 85%
Georgetown 0% 0% 2% 10% 75%
Creighton 0% 0% 2% 10% 74%
Providence 0% 0% 1% 4% 45%
Xavier 0% 0% 0% 1% 29%

Big East Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big East Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big East Men’s Conference Championship features a ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Villanova
100%
80.4%
60%
38.4%
2
Marquette
100%
75%
51.5%
26.9%
3
St John’s
98.3%
55.4%
20%
8%
4
Seton Hall
100%
54.5%
19.1%
7.8%
5
Butler
87.2%
41%
17.2%
8.5%
6
DePaul
74.9%
24.9%
6.8%
2%
7
Georgetown
69.5%
20.9%
6.3%
1.4%
8
Creighton
63%
20.1%
9.4%
3.7%
9
Providence
64.8%
21.3%
7%
2.3%
10
Xavier
42.3%
6.5%
2.7%
1%

Big East Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/16 DePaul 24.3% Butler 75.7% Butler wins by 8
2/16 Xavier 31.3% Providence 68.7% Providence wins by 6
2/17 Villanova 57.5% St John’s 42.5% Villanova wins by 3
2/17 Seton Hall 42.2% Creighton 57.8% Creighton wins by 3
2/20 Xavier 19.6% Seton Hall 80.4% Seton Hall wins by 9
2/20 Villanova 64.1% Georgetown 35.9% Villanova wins by 5
2/20 Butler 17.4% Marquette 82.6% Marquette wins by 10
2/20 St John’s 51.8% Providence 48.2% St John’s wins by 1
2/20 Creighton 48.2% DePaul 51.8% DePaul wins by 1
2/23 Marquette 61.8% Providence 38.2% Marquette wins by 4
2/23 Seton Hall 36.2% St John’s 63.8% St John’s wins by 5
2/23 Georgetown 32.4% Creighton 67.6% Creighton wins by 6
2/24 Villanova 70.3% Xavier 29.7% Villanova wins by 7
2/26 Providence 29% Butler 71% Butler wins by 7
2/27 DePaul 36.2% Georgetown 63.8% Georgetown wins by 5
2/27 Marquette 35.1% Villanova 64.9% Villanova wins by 5
2/28 Xavier 18.2% St John’s 81.8% St John’s wins by 10
3/2 Seton Hall 48.2% Georgetown 51.8% Georgetown wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC