Big East Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big East Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big East are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Big East Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Xavier 24 4 26.2 4.8 12 3 14.2 3.8
2 Villanova 24 3 27.1 3.9 11 3 14.1 3.9
3 Butler 19 10 20 11 9 7 10 8
4 Creighton 19 9 20.7 10.3 8 7 9.7 8.3
5 Providence 17 10 18.7 12.3 8 6 9.7 8.3
6 Seton Hall 18 9 20 11 7 7 9 9
7 Marquette 15 11 17.3 12.7 6 8 8.3 9.7
8 Georgetown 15 10 16.5 12.5 5 9 6.5 11.5
9 St John’s 14 13 15.6 15.4 3 11 4.6 13.4
10 DePaul 10 16 10.9 19.1 3 11 3.9 14.1

Projected Big East Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big East Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Villanova 1 12.811
Xavier 1 10.943
Butler 6 6.888
Seton Hall 9 6.175
Creighton 10 6.001
Providence 11 5.151

Big East Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big East Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big East team. The Big East Men’s Conference Championship features a ten team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Xavier
100%
75.6%
48.7%
19.2%
2
Villanova
100%
85.4%
68.2%
53.6%
3
Butler
100%
53%
15.8%
7.6%
4
Creighton
100%
63.5%
30.6%
9.9%
5
Providence
100%
36.5%
11.5%
1.6%
6
Seton Hall
100%
47%
10.4%
4.5%
7
Marquette
70.2%
11.8%
4.9%
1.7%
8
Georgetown
43%
8.6%
2.8%
0.8%
9
St John’s
57%
15.8%
6.4%
0.9%
10
DePaul
29.8%
2.8%
0.7%
0.2%

Big East Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Xavier 63.4% Georgetown 36.6% Xavier wins by 5
2/21 Seton Hall 53.7% Providence 46.3% Seton Hall wins by 1
2/21 DePaul 4.9% Villanova 95.1% Villanova wins by 18
2/21 St John’s 29.7% Marquette 70.3% Marquette wins by 7
2/24 Providence 43.5% Georgetown 56.5% Georgetown wins by 2
2/24 Seton Hall 52.9% St John’s 47.1% Seton Hall wins by 1
2/24 Villanova 62.8% Creighton 37.2% Villanova wins by 5
2/24 Marquette 57.1% DePaul 42.9% Marquette wins by 3
2/26 Marquette 52.2% Georgetown 47.8% Marquette wins by 1
2/27 DePaul 13.7% Creighton 86.4% Creighton wins by 11
2/28 Villanova 63.4% Seton Hall 36.6% Villanova wins by 5
2/28 Butler 55.5% St John’s 44.5% Butler wins by 2
2/28 Providence 14.1% Xavier 85.9% Xavier wins by 11
3/3 St John’s 38.5% Providence 61.5% Providence wins by 4
3/3 Butler 41.2% Seton Hall 58.8% Seton Hall wins by 3
3/3 Georgetown 6.6% Villanova 93.4% Villanova wins by 16
3/3 Xavier 70.3% DePaul 29.7% Xavier wins by 7
3/3 Creighton 46.3% Marquette 53.7% Marquette wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC