Big Sky Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big Sky Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Sky are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

Big Sky Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 N Colorado 6 2 22 8 0 0 15.2 4.8
2 Montana 5 3 21.5 9.5 0 0 15.1 4.9
3 Southern Utah 5 3 17.1 11.9 0 0 11.9 8.1
4 Weber St 5 5 17.6 13.4 0 0 11.6 8.4
5 CS Sacramento 6 2 16.3 12.7 0 0 10.2 9.8
6 Portland St 5 5 15.1 15.9 0 0 9.5 10.5
7 Idaho St 4 3 13.5 15.5 0 0 9.3 10.7
8 Montana St 3 6 11.2 18.8 1 0 8.9 12.1
9 E Washington 1 8 9.4 21.6 0 0 7.3 12.7
10 Idaho 2 7 8.1 21.9 1 0 6.9 14.1
11 Northern Arizona 2 6 8.3 21.7 0 0 6.2 13.8
12 North Dakota 6 5 13.3 16.7 0 2 0 2

Projected Big Sky Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Sky Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
N Colorado 15 2.41

Projected Big Sky Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big Sky Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
N Colorado 46% 32% 16% 6% 100%
Montana 41% 36% 14% 5% 100%
Southern Utah 6% 16% 26% 15% 99%
Weber St 5% 7% 19% 23% 94%
CS Sacramento 1% 7% 8% 18% 85%
Portland St 1% 1% 9% 11% 82%
Idaho St 0% 1% 3% 7% 70%
Montana St 0% 0% 3% 12% 73%
E Washington 0% 0% 1% 0% 44%
Idaho 0% 0% 1% 2% 28%
Northern Arizona 0% 0% 0% 1% 25%
North Dakota 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Big Sky Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big Sky Men’s Basketball Tournament is a standard twelve team tournament that is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: CenturyLink Arena (Boise, ID)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
N Colorado
100%
83.3%
52.3%
31.6%
2
Montana
100%
85%
61.9%
41.3%
3
Southern Utah
89.9%
56.9%
26.1%
9.1%
4
Weber St
86.1%
48.8%
22.9%
9.3%
5
CS Sacramento
75.2%
29.6%
10%
2.9%
6
Portland St
74.4%
28.3%
8.9%
1.3%
7
Idaho St
55%
16.1%
5.5%
1.6%
8
Montana St
54.2%
12.4%
3.3%
1.1%
9
E Washington
47.1%
11.7%
3.3%
0.4%
10
Idaho
39.2%
6.4%
0.8%
0.4%
11
Northern Arizona
35.3%
6.5%
1.6%
0.5%
12
North Dakota
43.6%
15%
3.4%
0.5%

Big Sky Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/29 N Colorado 63.4% CS Sacramento 36.6% N Colorado wins by 5
12/29 Weber St 59.2% E Washington 40.9% Weber St wins by 3
12/29 Idaho St 56.9% Idaho 43.1% Idaho St wins by 3
12/29 Montana 81.4% Northern Arizona 18.6% Montana wins by 9
12/29 Montana St 15.5% Southern Utah 84.5% Southern Utah wins by 11
12/31 Weber St 64.1% Idaho 35.9% Weber St wins by 5
12/31 Montana 57.8% Southern Utah 42.2% Montana wins by 3
12/31 Montana St 48.2% Northern Arizona 51.8% Northern Arizona wins by 1
12/31 N Colorado 67.2% Portland St 32.8% N Colorado wins by 6
12/31 Idaho St 48.5% E Washington 51.5% E Washington wins by 1
1/3 CS Sacramento 12.5% Montana 87.5% Montana wins by 12
1/3 E Washington 47.8% Idaho 52.2% Idaho wins by 1
1/3 Portland St 47.4% Montana St 52.6% Montana St wins by 1
1/3 Northern Arizona 13.2% Weber St 86.8% Weber St wins by 12
1/3 Southern Utah 54.8% Idaho St 45.2% Southern Utah wins by 2
1/5 CS Sacramento 51.5% Montana St 48.5% CS Sacramento wins by 1
1/5 Idaho 6.3% N Colorado 93.8% N Colorado wins by 17
1/5 Northern Arizona 19.1% Idaho St 80.9% Idaho St wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC