Big Sky Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big Sky Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Sky are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Big Sky Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Montana 19 6 23.9 7.1 12 2 16.9 3.1
2 N Colorado 17 9 20 11 11 4 14 6
3 Weber St 16 10 19.4 11.6 10 5 13.4 6.6
4 Montana St 12 13 14.5 15.5 9 6 11.5 8.5
5 E Washington 10 15 13 18 8 6 11 9
6 Southern Utah 12 12 14.4 14.6 7 8 9.4 10.6
7 Portland St 11 14 14.2 16.8 6 8 9.2 10.8
8 Northern Arizona 8 17 9.8 20.2 6 9 7.8 12.2
9 CS Sacramento 11 12 13.7 15.3 5 9 7.7 12.3
10 Idaho St 9 15 11.2 17.8 5 10 7.2 12.8
11 Idaho 4 21 5 26 1 13 2 18

Projected Big Sky Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Sky Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Montana 15 1.244

Projected Big Sky Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big Sky Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Montana 96% 4% 0% 0% 100%
N Colorado 4% 58% 31% 5% 100%
Weber St 0% 33% 55% 9% 100%
Montana St 0% 2% 8% 52% 100%
E Washington 0% 3% 6% 26% 98%
Southern Utah 0% 0% 0% 2% 94%
Portland St 0% 0% 0% 6% 88%
Northern Arizona 0% 0% 0% 0% 46%
CS Sacramento 0% 0% 0% 0% 45%
Idaho St 0% 0% 0% 0% 29%
Idaho 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Big Sky Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big Sky Men’s Basketball Tournament is a standard eleven team tournament that is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: CenturyLink Arena (Boise, ID)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Montana
100%
84.5%
64.9%
45.7%
2
N Colorado
100%
71%
35.6%
15.6%
3
Weber St
100%
72.7%
44.6%
22.1%
4
Montana St
99.3%
52.7%
14.6%
4.9%
5
E Washington
93.6%
42.8%
13.9%
5.5%
6
Southern Utah
70.1%
22%
8%
2.3%
7
Portland St
67.4%
20.3%
6.5%
1.6%
8
Northern Arizona
46.8%
8.1%
2.1%
0%
9
CS Sacramento
61.4%
16.1%
7.2%
2.2%
10
Idaho St
43.1%
7.1%
2.3%
0.1%
11
Idaho
18.3%
2.7%
0.3%
0%

Big Sky Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Weber St 58.5% CS Sacramento 41.5% Weber St wins by 3
2/21 E Washington 41.2% Southern Utah 58.8% Southern Utah wins by 3
2/21 Idaho 12.2% Northern Arizona 87.8% Northern Arizona wins by 12
2/21 Idaho St 28.2% Portland St 71.8% Portland St wins by 7
2/23 CS Sacramento 37.9% Portland St 62.1% Portland St wins by 4
2/23 E Washington 51.1% Northern Arizona 48.9% E Washington wins by 1
2/23 Idaho 8% Southern Utah 92% Southern Utah wins by 14
2/23 Montana St 12.7% Montana 87.3% Montana wins by 12
2/25 N Colorado 16.5% Montana 83.5% Montana wins by 10
2/28 CS Sacramento 33.2% E Washington 66.8% E Washington wins by 6
2/28 Portland St 69.1% Idaho 30.9% Portland St wins by 6
2/28 Weber St 42.7% N Colorado 57.3% N Colorado wins by 3
3/2 CS Sacramento 68.3% Idaho 31.7% CS Sacramento wins by 6
3/2 Portland St 33.6% E Washington 66.4% E Washington wins by 6
3/2 Idaho St 14.6% N Colorado 85.4% N Colorado wins by 11
3/2 Southern Utah 9.7% Montana 90.3% Montana wins by 13
3/2 Northern Arizona 19.6% Montana St 80.4% Montana St wins by 9
3/4 Weber St 61.8% Idaho St 38.2% Weber St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC