Big Sky Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big Sky Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Sky are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Big Sky Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Montana 20 7 22.6 7.4 13 2 15.6 2.4
2 Weber St 19 7 21 9 12 2 14 4
3 Idaho 19 7 22 8 11 3 14 4
4 E Washington 14 13 16.7 14.3 9 5 11.7 6.3
5 N Colorado 18 10 19.7 11.3 9 6 10.7 7.3
6 Portland St 16 11 18.8 12.2 6 8 8.8 9.2
7 Idaho St 12 13 13.2 15.8 7 7 8.2 9.8
8 Montana St 13 15 14.1 16.9 6 9 7.1 10.9
9 North Dakota 10 17 11 19 5 10 6 12
10 Southern Utah 10 15 11.2 17.8 4 10 5.2 12.8
11 CS Sacramento 6 21 7.8 23.2 3 11 4.8 13.2
12 Northern Arizona 4 23 4.8 26.2 1 13 1.8 16.2

Projected Big Sky Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Sky Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Montana 14 2.447

Big Sky Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big Sky team. The Big Sky Men’s Basketball Tournament is a standard twelve team tournament that is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Reno Events Center (Reno, NV)
First Round: March 6th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Montana
100%
84.2%
56.2%
36.6%
2
Weber St
100%
77.9%
35.3%
14.6%
3
Idaho
100%
66.3%
42.1%
21%
4
E Washington
100%
48.8%
18%
7.2%
5
N Colorado
86.9%
49.5%
20.7%
11.5%
6
Portland St
75.9%
29.8%
16.6%
6.6%
7
Idaho St
56.4%
13%
3.4%
0.7%
8
Montana St
49.8%
8%
2.5%
0.6%
9
North Dakota
50.2%
7.8%
2.2%
0.7%
10
Southern Utah
43.6%
9.1%
1.9%
0.4%
11
CS Sacramento
24.1%
3.9%
0.7%
0%
12
Northern Arizona
13.1%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%

Big Sky Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Idaho 66.4% Idaho St 33.6% Idaho wins by 6
2/22 CS Sacramento 55.1% Northern Arizona 44.9% CS Sacramento wins by 2
2/22 Portland St 62.8% Southern Utah 37.2% Portland St wins by 5
2/22 E Washington 34.4% Weber St 65.6% Weber St wins by 5
2/24 N Colorado 62.5% North Dakota 37.6% N Colorado wins by 4
2/24 E Washington 59.2% Idaho St 40.9% E Washington wins by 3
2/24 Montana St 8.6% Montana 91.4% Montana wins by 13
2/24 Portland St 75.7% Northern Arizona 24.3% Portland St wins by 8
2/24 CS Sacramento 40.2% Southern Utah 59.8% Southern Utah wins by 4
2/24 Idaho 46.3% Weber St 53.7% Weber St wins by 1
3/1 Weber St 20.6% Montana 79.4% Montana wins by 9
3/1 Idaho St 35.5% Montana St 64.5% Montana St wins by 5
3/1 Southern Utah 13.9% E Washington 86.1% E Washington wins by 11
3/1 Northern Arizona 6.6% Idaho 93.4% Idaho wins by 16
3/1 North Dakota 44.5% CS Sacramento 55.5% CS Sacramento wins by 2
3/1 N Colorado 44.5% Portland St 55.5% Portland St wins by 2
3/3 Idaho St 8% Montana 92% Montana wins by 14
3/3 Weber St 59.8% Montana St 40.2% Weber St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC