Big South Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big South Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big South are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Big South Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Radford 18 8 20.8 9.2 10 2 12.8 3.2
2 Winthrop 17 9 18.7 10.3 9 4 10.7 5.3
3 Campbell 15 11 17.4 12.6 8 4 10.4 5.6
4 Presbyterian 16 12 17.8 13.2 8 5 9.8 6.2
5 Gardner Webb 17 10 19.6 11.4 7 5 9.6 6.4
6 High Point 14 12 16.1 13.9 7 5 9.1 6.9
7 Charleston So 12 13 14.4 14.6 6 6 8.4 7.6
8 Hampton 10 15 11.8 17.2 5 7 6.8 9.2
9 Longwood 15 13 16 15 5 8 6 10
10 UNC Asheville 4 22 4.7 25.3 2 10 2.7 13.3
11 SC Upstate 6 22 6.7 24.3 1 12 1.7 14.3

Projected Big South Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big South Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Radford 15 1.408

Projected Big South Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big South Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Radford 85% 9% 2% 4% 100%
Winthrop 8% 29% 24% 13% 100%
Campbell 3% 16% 26% 23% 100%
Presbyterian 0% 7% 14% 30% 100%
Gardner Webb 4% 35% 23% 13% 100%
High Point 0% 3% 9% 12% 100%
Charleston So 0% 1% 2% 5% 100%
Hampton 0% 0% 0% 0% 68%
Longwood 0% 0% 0% 0% 32%
UNC Asheville 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Big South Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big South Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big South Men’s Conference Tournament is unique in it’s set up. The First Round is played at the site of the higher seed, but then the Quarterfinals and Semifinals are played on the campus of the Regular Season winner. The Finals, however, are then played at the home site of the highest remaining seed.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites & Regular Season Champ Site
First Round: March 5th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 8th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Radford
100%
76.9%
54.1%
36.5%
2
Winthrop
98.1%
62%
37.1%
20.1%
3
Campbell
98.7%
52.3%
23.1%
9.9%
4
Presbyterian
97.9%
51%
22.5%
8.7%
5
Gardner Webb
98.3%
48.8%
19.8%
6.8%
6
High Point
90.7%
39.4%
15.7%
7.3%
7
Charleston So
89.9%
40.2%
17%
7.5%
8
Hampton
59.2%
15.6%
6.4%
2.3%
9
Longwood
41.3%
9.9%
3.2%
0.7%
10
UNC Asheville
11%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
11
SC Upstate
14.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%

Big South Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 High Point 37.2% Campbell 62.8% Campbell wins by 5
2/21 Gardner Webb 80.6% UNC Asheville 19.4% Gardner Webb wins by 9
2/21 SC Upstate 9.4% Charleston So 90.6% Charleston So wins by 13
2/21 Longwood 39.2% Hampton 60.8% Hampton wins by 4
2/21 Winthrop 29% Radford 71% Radford wins by 7
2/23 Gardner Webb 43.5% High Point 56.5% High Point wins by 2
2/23 Hampton 13% Radford 87% Radford wins by 12
2/23 Presbyterian 79.7% UNC Asheville 20.3% Presbyterian wins by 9
2/23 Campbell 56.3% Longwood 43.7% Campbell wins by 2
2/23 Charleston So 22.8% Winthrop 77.2% Winthrop wins by 8
2/27 UNC Asheville 8.2% Charleston So 91.8% Charleston So wins by 14
2/27 Radford 61.1% High Point 38.9% Radford wins by 4
2/27 Campbell 75.7% SC Upstate 24.3% Campbell wins by 8
2/27 Presbyterian 39.2% Gardner Webb 60.8% Gardner Webb wins by 4
2/28 Winthrop 61.1% Hampton 38.9% Winthrop wins by 4
3/2 Radford 58.5% Campbell 41.5% Radford wins by 3
3/2 High Point 76.7% UNC Asheville 23.3% High Point wins by 8
3/2 Hampton 63.4% SC Upstate 36.6% Hampton wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC