Big Ten Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big Ten Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Ten are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Big Ten Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Michigan 10 0 26.8 4.2 2 0 15.8 4.2
2 Michigan St 8 2 22.9 8.1 2 0 13.9 6.1
3 Wisconsin 8 2 22.4 8.6 2 0 13.6 6.4
4 Ohio St 8 1 22.7 8.3 2 0 13 7
5 Indiana 8 2 20.3 10.7 2 0 11.7 8.3
6 Nebraska 8 2 21.2 9.8 1 1 11.5 8.5
7 Purdue 6 4 17.5 13.5 1 1 10 10
8 Maryland 8 2 18.9 12.1 1 1 9.2 10.8
9 Minnesota 8 2 18.6 12.4 1 1 8.7 11.3
10 Iowa 7 2 19.1 11.9 0 2 8.2 11.8
11 Northwestern 7 3 16.9 14.1 0 2 7.5 12.5
12 Penn St 5 4 14.6 16.4 0 2 7.3 12.7
13 Rutgers 5 4 12.2 17.8 0 2 5 15
14 Illinois 3 7 9.1 21.9 0 2 4.4 15.6

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Ten Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Michigan 1 13.201
Michigan St 2 10.848
Wisconsin 2 10.703
Ohio St 3 8.875
Indiana 4 8.642
Purdue 5 7.42
Nebraska 6 7.419
Maryland 8 6.602
Minnesota 9 6.19
Iowa Next 4 Out 4.771

Projected Big Ten Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big Ten Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Michigan 66% 21% 7% 4% 100%
Michigan St 12% 29% 17% 16% 100%
Wisconsin 8% 21% 21% 21% 98%
Ohio St 7% 15% 19% 18% 99%
Indiana 4% 6% 16% 14% 89%
Nebraska 2% 7% 9% 16% 85%
Purdue 1% 1% 3% 5% 63%
Maryland 0% 0% 3% 2% 51%
Minnesota 0% 0% 0% 2% 44%
Iowa 0% 0% 4% 1% 41%
Northwestern 0% 0% 0% 1% 15%
Penn St 0% 0% 1% 0% 12%
Rutgers 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After playing a week early last year at Madison Square Garden, the Big Ten Tournament is back to it’s normal schedule.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: United Center (Chicago, IL)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Michigan
100%
100%
78.6%
50.8%
32.4%
2
Michigan St
100%
90.3%
63.9%
38.3%
22.8%
3
Wisconsin
100%
95%
59.1%
31.1%
15%
4
Ohio St
100%
86.4%
47.8%
23.7%
10.8%
5
Indiana
100%
83.2%
42.2%
17.6%
7%
6
Nebraska
97.4%
71.5%
36.1%
17%
6.6%
7
Purdue
92.3%
52.5%
20.2%
7.4%
2.4%
8
Maryland
93.6%
51.7%
16.6%
5.8%
1.6%
9
Minnesota
79%
40.9%
8.9%
2.4%
0.5%
10
Iowa
80.5%
37.9%
8.1%
1.6%
0.4%
11
Northwestern
75.3%
31.8%
6.6%
1.5%
0.1%
12
Penn St
68.9%
29.4%
7.6%
2%
0.4%
13
Rutgers
57.7%
12.6%
1.2%
0.2%
0%
14
Illinois
55.3%
16.8%
3.1%
0.6%
0%

Big Ten Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Northwestern 10.3% Michigan St 89.7% Michigan St wins by 13
1/2 Nebraska 47.8% Maryland 52.2% Maryland wins by 1
1/3 Illinois 8.2% Indiana 91.8% Indiana wins by 14
1/3 Iowa 32.8% Purdue 67.2% Purdue wins by 6
1/3 Penn St 7% Michigan 93% Michigan wins by 16
1/3 Minnesota 13.7% Wisconsin 86.4% Wisconsin wins by 11
1/5 Maryland 60.8% Rutgers 39.2% Maryland wins by 4
1/5 Michigan St 47.8% Ohio St 52.2% Ohio St wins by 1
1/6 Illinois 16.2% Northwestern 83.8% Northwestern wins by 10
1/6 Indiana 13% Michigan 87% Michigan wins by 12
1/6 Wisconsin 61.5% Penn St 38.5% Wisconsin wins by 4
1/6 Nebraska 52.2% Iowa 47.8% Nebraska wins by 1
1/8 Maryland 47.1% Minnesota 52.9% Minnesota wins by 1
1/8 Purdue 16% Michigan St 84% Michigan St wins by 10
1/9 Iowa 44.5% Northwestern 55.5% Northwestern wins by 2
1/9 Ohio St 70.3% Rutgers 29.7% Ohio St wins by 7
1/10 Michigan 90.8% Illinois 9.2% Michigan wins by 13
1/10 Penn St 16.2% Nebraska 83.8% Nebraska wins by 10

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC