Big Ten Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big Ten Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Ten are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

Big Ten Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Michigan St 20 5 24.4 6.6 11 3 15.4 4.6
2 Purdue 17 7 22.1 8.9 10 3 15.1 4.9
3 Michigan 22 3 25.7 5.3 11 3 14.7 5.3
4 Maryland 19 6 22.3 8.7 10 4 13.3 6.7
5 Wisconsin 17 8 21.1 9.9 9 5 13.1 6.9
6 Iowa 19 5 23.1 7.9 8 5 12.1 7.9
7 Ohio St 16 7 19.9 11.1 6 6 9.9 10.1
8 Minnesota 16 9 18.7 12.3 6 8 8.7 11.3
9 Illinois 9 15 11.4 19.6 5 8 7.4 12.6
10 Indiana 13 11 16 15 4 9 7 13
11 Rutgers 12 12 13.8 16.2 5 9 6.8 13.2
12 Nebraska 14 11 16.4 14.6 4 10 6.4 13.6
13 Northwestern 12 12 14.4 16.6 3 10 5.4 14.6
14 Penn St 9 15 11.6 19.4 2 11 4.6 15.4

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Ten Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Michigan St 2 13.155
Michigan 2 12.271
Purdue 3 11.337
Maryland 5 9.443
Wisconsin 6 8.888
Iowa 6 8.57
Ohio St 8 6.76
Minnesota 10 5.565
Nebraska 12 4.082

Projected Big Ten Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big Ten Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Michigan St 49% 28% 15% 7% 100%
Purdue 22% 32% 25% 14% 100%
Michigan 26% 23% 30% 12% 100%
Maryland 0% 9% 13% 24% 100%
Wisconsin 2% 6% 13% 31% 100%
Iowa 1% 1% 4% 11% 100%
Ohio St 0% 1% 0% 1% 84%
Minnesota 0% 0% 0% 0% 62%
Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%
Indiana 0% 0% 0% 0% 17%
Rutgers 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
Nebraska 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Northwestern 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Penn St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After playing a week early last year at Madison Square Garden, the Big Ten Tournament is back to it’s normal schedule.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: United Center (Chicago, IL)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Michigan St
100%
99.7%
83.4%
54.9%
37.5%
2
Purdue
100%
96.9%
70.2%
41%
18.4%
3
Michigan
100%
98.9%
72.9%
39%
19.8%
4
Maryland
100%
89.2%
45%
18.4%
7.8%
5
Wisconsin
100%
86.5%
49.1%
22.2%
9.1%
6
Iowa
100%
72.7%
27.5%
9.3%
3.1%
7
Ohio St
96.4%
52.9%
15.7%
4.9%
1.9%
8
Minnesota
100%
49.3%
9%
2.7%
0.7%
9
Illinois
86%
37.3%
4.5%
0.6%
0.1%
10
Indiana
82.4%
36.7%
8.5%
3%
0.9%
11
Rutgers
67.1%
19.8%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
12
Nebraska
77.5%
32%
6.8%
2%
0.5%
13
Northwestern
45.7%
14.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0%
14
Penn St
44.9%
13.9%
2.4%
0.7%
0%

Big Ten Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/14 Illinois 16.7% Ohio St 83.3% Ohio St wins by 10
2/16 Iowa 62.8% Rutgers 37.2% Iowa wins by 5
2/16 Maryland 22.3% Michigan 77.7% Michigan wins by 8
2/16 Indiana 37.9% Minnesota 62.1% Minnesota wins by 4
2/16 Penn St 9.7% Purdue 90.3% Purdue wins by 13
2/16 Northwestern 20.6% Nebraska 79.4% Nebraska wins by 9
2/17 Ohio St 13.9% Michigan St 86.1% Michigan St wins by 11
2/18 Illinois 12.5% Wisconsin 87.5% Wisconsin wins by 12
2/19 Maryland 42.5% Iowa 57.5% Iowa wins by 3
2/19 Purdue 61.8% Indiana 38.2% Purdue wins by 4
2/19 Nebraska 50% Penn St 50% Nebraska wins by 1
2/20 Rutgers 6.6% Michigan St 93.4% Michigan St wins by 16
2/20 Northwestern 17.2% Ohio St 82.8% Ohio St wins by 10
2/21 Michigan 62.8% Minnesota 37.2% Michigan wins by 5
2/22 Indiana 20.6% Iowa 79.4% Iowa wins by 9
2/23 Wisconsin 63.4% Northwestern 36.6% Wisconsin wins by 5
2/23 Penn St 42.5% Illinois 57.5% Illinois wins by 3
2/23 Purdue 60.1% Nebraska 39.9% Purdue wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC