Big Ten Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big Ten Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Ten are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

Big Ten Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Michigan St 27 6 27 6 16 4 16 4
2 Purdue 23 9 23 9 16 4 16 4
3 Michigan 28 5 28 5 15 5 15 5
4 Wisconsin 23 10 23 10 14 6 14 6
5 Maryland 22 10 22 10 13 7 13 7
6 Iowa 22 11 22 11 10 10 10 10
7 Minnesota 21 13 21 13 9 11 9 11
8 Ohio St 19 14 19 14 8 12 8 12
9 Indiana 17 15 17 15 8 12 8 12
10 Penn St 14 18 14 18 7 13 7 13
11 Illinois 12 21 12 21 7 13 7 13
12 Rutgers 14 17 14 17 7 13 7 13
13 Nebraska 18 16 18 16 6 14 6 14
14 Northwestern 13 19 13 19 4 16 4 16

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Ten Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Michigan St 2 14.451
Michigan 2 13.569
Purdue 4 11.099
Wisconsin 4 10.024
Maryland 6 7.992
Iowa 8 6.705
Minnesota 9 6.06
Ohio St 11 5.172
Indiana Next 4 Out 3.801

Projected Big Ten Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big Ten Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Michigan St 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Purdue 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Michigan 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Wisconsin 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Maryland 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Iowa 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Minnesota 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Ohio St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Indiana 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Penn St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rutgers 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Northwestern 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After playing a week early last year at Madison Square Garden, the Big Ten Tournament is back to it’s normal schedule.

Regular Season Champion: Michigan St
Tournament Site: United Center (Chicago, IL)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Michigan St
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
2
Purdue
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
3
Michigan
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
4
Wisconsin
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
5
Maryland
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6
Iowa
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
Minnesota
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
8
Ohio St
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
9
Indiana
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10
Penn St
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
Illinois
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Rutgers
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13
Nebraska
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
14
Northwestern
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

Big Ten Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC