Big Ten Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big Ten Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Ten are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/11/2018.

Big Ten Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Michigan St 29 4 29 4 17 3 17 3
2 Ohio St 24 8 24 8 15 4 15 4
3 Purdue 28 6 28 6 17 4 17 4
4 Nebraska 22 10 22 10 13 6 13 6
5 Michigan 28 7 28 7 17 5 17 5
6 Indiana 16 15 16 15 9 10 9 10
7 Penn St 21 13 21 13 11 10 11 10
8 Maryland 19 13 19 13 8 11 8 11
9 Wisconsin 15 18 15 18 8 12 8 12
10 Northwestern 15 17 15 17 6 13 6 13
11 Minnesota 15 17 15 17 4 15 4 15
12 Iowa 14 19 14 19 5 15 5 15
13 Illinois 14 18 14 18 4 15 4 15
14 Rutgers 15 19 15 19 5 16 5 16

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Ten Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Purdue 2 10.62
Michigan St 3 10.177
Michigan 3 10.173
Ohio St 5 8.143
Penn St Next 4 Out 4.826
Nebraska Next 4 Out 4.807

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big Ten team. The Big Ten Tournament is being played a week early this year as Madison Square Garden is also the site for the Big East Tournament the following week.

Regular Season Champion: Michigan St
Tournament Site: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
First Round: February 28th, 2018
Second Round: March 1st, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 2nd, 2018
Semifinals: March 3rd, 2018
Finals: March 4th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Michigan St
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
2
Ohio St
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
3
Purdue
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
4
Nebraska
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Michigan
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
6
Indiana
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7
Penn St
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
8
Maryland
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
Wisconsin
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
10
Northwestern
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
Minnesota
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Iowa
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13
Illinois
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14
Rutgers
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%

Big Ten Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC