Big Ten Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big Ten Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big Ten are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Big Ten Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Michigan St 27 3 27.7 3.3 15 2 15.7 2.3
2 Purdue 24 5 25.7 5.3 13 3 14.7 3.3
3 Ohio St 23 7 23.6 7.4 14 3 14.6 3.4
4 Nebraska 21 9 21.5 9.5 12 5 12.5 5.5
5 Michigan 22 7 22.9 8.1 11 5 11.9 6.1
6 Penn St 19 10 20.1 10.9 9 7 10.1 7.9
7 Indiana 16 13 16.4 13.6 9 8 9.4 8.6
8 Maryland 19 11 19.6 11.4 8 9 8.6 9.4
9 Northwestern 15 14 16.1 14.9 6 10 7.1 10.9
10 Wisconsin 13 16 13.6 17.4 6 10 6.6 11.4
11 Iowa 12 17 12.9 18.1 3 13 3.9 14.1
12 Minnesota 14 15 14.7 16.3 3 13 3.7 14.3
13 Illinois 13 16 13.6 17.4 3 13 3.6 14.4
14 Rutgers 13 17 13.6 17.4 3 14 3.6 14.4

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big Ten Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Purdue 2 10.142
Michigan St 3 9.717
Ohio St 4 7.802
Michigan 6 6.842
Penn St 11 5.241
Nebraska Last 4 Out 4.528

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big Ten team. The Big Ten Tournament is being played a week early this year as Madison Square Garden is also the site for the Big East Tournament the following week.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
First Round: February 28th, 2018
Second Round: March 1st, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 2nd, 2018
Semifinals: March 3rd, 2018
Finals: March 4th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Michigan St
100%
100%
78.4%
60.8%
36.5%
2
Purdue
100%
100%
80.5%
54.4%
32.3%
3
Ohio St
100%
100%
65.7%
27.3%
13%
4
Nebraska
100%
100%
43.2%
10.4%
2.8%
5
Michigan
100%
72.5%
47.9%
16.8%
5.8%
6
Penn St
100%
75.9%
29.3%
10.9%
4.7%
7
Indiana
100%
54.5%
10.7%
3.6%
0.9%
8
Maryland
100%
59.8%
15.5%
8.1%
2.3%
9
Northwestern
100%
40.2%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
10
Wisconsin
100%
45.5%
8.8%
3.1%
0.8%
11
Iowa
55.6%
13.5%
2.7%
0.3%
0%
12
Minnesota
55%
13.4%
4.5%
0.4%
0.1%
13
Illinois
45%
14.1%
4.4%
0.8%
0%
14
Rutgers
44.4%
10.6%
2.3%
0.4%
0%

Big Ten Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Michigan 42.2% Penn St 57.8% Penn St wins by 3
2/21 Iowa 35.9% Minnesota 64.1% Minnesota wins by 5
2/22 Purdue 79.4% Illinois 20.6% Purdue wins by 9
2/22 Wisconsin 34.4% Northwestern 65.6% Northwestern wins by 5
2/23 Ohio St 57.8% Indiana 42.2% Ohio St wins by 3
2/24 Michigan 44.9% Maryland 55.1% Maryland wins by 2
2/25 Minnesota 7.4% Purdue 92.6% Purdue wins by 15
2/25 Illinois 43.7% Rutgers 56.3% Rutgers wins by 2
2/25 Northwestern 48.2% Iowa 51.8% Iowa wins by 1
2/25 Penn St 48.2% Nebraska 51.8% Nebraska wins by 1
2/25 Michigan St 72.5% Wisconsin 27.5% Michigan St wins by 7

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC