Big West Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Big West Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 UC Irvine 9 2 25.2 6.8 0 0 12.9 3.1
2 UC Santa Barbara 7 2 21.4 8.6 0 0 10.7 5.3
3 Hawaii 5 4 17.1 10.9 0 0 9.6 6.4
4 Long Beach St 3 8 13.6 18.4 0 0 8.1 7.9
5 CS Fullerton 3 6 11.7 18.3 0 0 7.8 8.2
6 UC Davis 2 7 10.1 18.9 0 0 7 9
7 Cal Poly 3 5 10.4 18.6 0 0 5.4 10.6
8 CS Northridge 3 6 10.2 20.8 0 0 5.3 10.7
9 UC Riverside 3 7 10.6 21.4 0 0 5.1 10.9

Projected Big West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
UC Irvine 13 3.826

Projected Big West Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big West Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
UC Irvine 78% 16% 3% 1% 100%
UC Santa Barbara 16% 38% 19% 19% 100%
Hawaii 0% 23% 31% 23% 100%
Long Beach St 2% 10% 15% 17% 99%
CS Fullerton 1% 4% 12% 20% 95%
UC Davis 3% 5% 13% 9% 94%
Cal Poly 0% 2% 1% 5% 70%
CS Northridge 0% 2% 4% 3% 76%
UC Riverside 0% 0% 2% 3% 66%

Big West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big West Men’s Conference Championship follows a standard eight team tournament set up on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Honda Center (Anaheim, CA)
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Big West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/9 CS Northridge 40.9% UC Riverside 59.2% UC Riverside wins by 3
1/9 CS Fullerton 23.3% Hawaii 76.7% Hawaii wins by 8
1/9 Cal Poly 8.9% UC Santa Barbara 91.1% UC Santa Barbara wins by 13
1/10 UC Davis 7.4% UC Irvine 92.6% UC Irvine wins by 15
1/12 CS Northridge 38.5% Cal Poly 61.5% Cal Poly wins by 4
1/12 UC Irvine 72.1% CS Fullerton 27.9% UC Irvine wins by 7
1/12 UC Davis 29.7% Long Beach St 70.3% Long Beach St wins by 7
1/12 UC Riverside 8.2% UC Santa Barbara 91.8% UC Santa Barbara wins by 14
1/16 Long Beach St 9.4% UC Irvine 90.6% UC Irvine wins by 13
1/17 Hawaii 62.8% CS Northridge 37.2% Hawaii wins by 5
1/17 UC Riverside 18.4% CS Fullerton 81.6% CS Fullerton wins by 9
1/17 UC Santa Barbara 61.5% UC Davis 38.5% UC Santa Barbara wins by 4
1/19 UC Irvine 82.1% CS Northridge 17.9% UC Irvine wins by 10
1/19 Hawaii 63.4% UC Riverside 36.6% Hawaii wins by 5
1/19 Cal Poly 26.2% UC Davis 73.8% UC Davis wins by 7
1/19 CS Fullerton 37.2% Long Beach St 62.8% Long Beach St wins by 5
1/23 UC Riverside 37.6% Cal Poly 62.5% Cal Poly wins by 4
1/23 UC Irvine 61.5% Hawaii 38.5% UC Irvine wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC