Big West Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Big West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Big West Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 UC Santa Barbara 20 6 23 7 9 3 12 4
2 UC Davis 18 9 20 10 9 4 11 5
3 UC Irvine 14 15 15.6 16.4 9 4 10.6 5.4
4 CS Fullerton 15 9 17.6 10.4 8 4 10.6 5.4
5 Long Beach St 13 15 14.8 17.2 7 5 8.8 7.2
6 Hawaii 15 10 16.6 12.4 6 6 7.6 8.4
7 Cal Poly 8 19 9.1 20.9 3 10 4.1 11.9
8 CS Northridge 6 21 6.8 23.2 3 10 3.8 12.2
9 UC Riverside 7 19 8.3 21.7 2 10 3.3 12.7

Projected Big West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
UC Santa Barbara 14 1.682

Big West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Big West team. The Big West Men’s Conference Championship follows a standard eight team tournament set up on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Honda Center (Anaheim, CA)
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
UC Santa Barbara
87.7%
57.4%
35%
2
UC Davis
79.9%
43.5%
20.9%
3
UC Irvine
62.8%
34.5%
17.5%
4
CS Fullerton
53.8%
22%
10.9%
5
Long Beach St
46.2%
17.5%
8.2%
6
Hawaii
37.2%
16.6%
5.9%
7
Cal Poly
20.1%
5.4%
1.2%
8
CS Northridge
12.3%
3.1%
0.4%

Big West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 CS Fullerton 60.8% UC Riverside 39.2% CS Fullerton wins by 4
2/22 UC Santa Barbara 47.8% UC Irvine 52.2% UC Irvine wins by 1
2/22 CS Northridge 29.4% Cal Poly 70.6% Cal Poly wins by 7
2/22 Long Beach St 41.2% Hawaii 58.8% Hawaii wins by 3
2/24 UC Riverside 13.2% UC Davis 86.8% UC Davis wins by 12
2/24 Long Beach St 35.1% CS Fullerton 64.9% CS Fullerton wins by 5
2/24 UC Santa Barbara 80.6% CS Northridge 19.4% UC Santa Barbara wins by 9
2/24 UC Irvine 51.8% Hawaii 48.2% UC Irvine wins by 1
2/28 CS Fullerton 68.3% CS Northridge 31.7% CS Fullerton wins by 6
3/1 Hawaii 23.8% UC Davis 76.2% UC Davis wins by 8
3/1 Long Beach St 18.4% UC Santa Barbara 81.6% UC Santa Barbara wins by 9
3/1 Cal Poly 36.2% UC Riverside 63.8% UC Riverside wins by 5
3/3 UC Davis 39.2% UC Irvine 60.8% UC Irvine wins by 4
3/3 Hawaii 31.7% CS Fullerton 68.3% CS Fullerton wins by 6
3/3 UC Riverside 17.2% Long Beach St 82.8% Long Beach St wins by 10
3/3 Cal Poly 8% UC Santa Barbara 92% UC Santa Barbara wins by 14

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC