Big West Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Big West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Big West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Big West Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 UC Irvine 22 5 26.3 5.7 10 1 14.3 1.7
2 CS Fullerton 12 13 15.1 14.9 8 3 11.1 4.9
3 Hawaii 16 9 19.1 10.9 7 4 10.1 5.9
4 UC Santa Barbara 17 8 20.3 9.7 6 5 9.3 6.7
5 UC Davis 10 14 12.9 17.1 6 4 8.9 7.1
6 Long Beach St 10 18 12.5 19.5 4 8 6.5 9.5
7 CS Northridge 10 17 11.8 20.2 4 7 5.8 10.2
8 UC Riverside 9 18 10.2 21.8 3 8 4.2 11.8
9 Cal Poly 5 18 5.7 23.3 1 9 1.7 14.3

Projected Big West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Big West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
UC Irvine 14 2.453

Projected Big West Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Big West Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
UC Irvine 98% 2% 0% 0% 100%
CS Fullerton 2% 62% 24% 7% 100%
Hawaii 0% 22% 32% 24% 100%
UC Santa Barbara 0% 9% 24% 41% 100%
UC Davis 0% 5% 20% 27% 100%
Long Beach St 0% 0% 0% 1% 100%
CS Northridge 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
UC Riverside 0% 0% 0% 0% 94%
Cal Poly 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%

Big West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Big West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Big West Men’s Conference Championship follows a standard eight team tournament set up on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Honda Center (Anaheim, CA)
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
UC Irvine
87%
64%
45.4%
2
CS Fullerton
66.8%
32.3%
12.2%
3
Hawaii
67.2%
35.1%
17.7%
4
UC Santa Barbara
59.5%
28.7%
12.5%
5
UC Davis
40.2%
12.5%
3.6%
6
Long Beach St
37.1%
14.8%
5.1%
7
CS Northridge
28.3%
8.9%
2.8%
8
UC Riverside
13.5%
3.6%
0.7%

Big West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Cal Poly 1.5% UC Irvine 98.5% UC Irvine wins by 21
2/21 UC Davis 27.2% CS Fullerton 72.8% CS Fullerton wins by 7
2/21 Hawaii 43.1% UC Santa Barbara 56.9% UC Santa Barbara wins by 3
2/23 Hawaii 80.9% Cal Poly 19.1% Hawaii wins by 9
2/23 UC Davis 51.8% CS Northridge 48.2% UC Davis wins by 1
2/23 CS Fullerton 38.5% UC Santa Barbara 61.5% UC Santa Barbara wins by 4
2/23 Long Beach St 57.1% UC Riverside 42.9% Long Beach St wins by 3
2/27 UC Riverside 27.2% CS Northridge 72.8% CS Northridge wins by 7
2/28 Cal Poly 7.8% CS Fullerton 92.2% CS Fullerton wins by 15
2/28 UC Irvine 65.3% UC Davis 34.7% UC Irvine wins by 5
2/28 Long Beach St 21.8% UC Santa Barbara 78.2% UC Santa Barbara wins by 8
3/2 CS Northridge 15% Hawaii 85% Hawaii wins by 11
3/2 UC Irvine 82.1% UC Riverside 17.9% UC Irvine wins by 10
3/2 CS Fullerton 49.3% UC Davis 50.7% UC Davis wins by 1
3/2 Cal Poly 13% Long Beach St 87% Long Beach St wins by 12
3/6 UC Riverside 18.9% Long Beach St 81.1% Long Beach St wins by 9
3/7 UC Irvine 91.7% Cal Poly 8.3% UC Irvine wins by 14
3/7 Hawaii 54.8% UC Davis 45.2% Hawaii wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC