Boise State Broncos Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Boise State Broncos. All of these projections for Boise St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Boise St Record and Rankings

Record: 8-9
Projected Final Record: 15.7-15.3

Mountain West Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 10.7-7.3
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 4

Boise St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 154
RPI Rank: 204
NET Rank: 140
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-2 1-3 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.857

Our current projections give the Boise State Broncos a 4.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 92.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Boise St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Boise State Broncos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Boise St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 244 Idaho St Home L 70-72
11/16 327 Jackson St Home W 70-53
11/19 54 Creighton Neutral L 82-94
11/20 199 St Bonaventure Neutal W 72-52
11/21 172 Illinois St Neutral L 70-73
11/27 122 Drake Away L 74-83
12/1 105 Grand Canyon Away L 67-69
12/8 No Rank C Washington Home W 82-62
12/12 315 Alabama St Home W 67-57
12/15 81 Oregon Away L 54-66
12/19 143 Loy Marymount Away L 69-70
12/22 169 Pacific Home W 83-71
12/29 81 Oregon Home L 50-62
1/2 307 Wyoming Away W 69-55
1/5 151 San Diego St Home W 88-64
1/12 326 San Jose St Away W 87-64
1/15 20 Nevada Home L 71-72
1/19 59 Fresno St Home 42.5%
1/22 232 Air Force Away 59.5%
1/26 307 Wyoming Home 91.8%
1/29 212 Colorado St Away 56.3%
2/2 20 Nevada Away 7.8%
2/6 165 UNLV Home 66.4%
2/9 326 San Jose St Home 92.6%
2/13 59 Fresno St Away 17.7%
2/16 151 San Diego St Away 39.9%
2/23 56 Utah St Home 41.8%
2/27 212 Colorado St Home 80.9%
3/2 165 UNLV Away 42.7%
3/6 186 New Mexico Away 49.3%
3/9 232 Air Force Home 83.3%