Boise State Broncos Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Boise State Broncos. All of these projections for Boise St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Boise St Record and Rankings

Record: 21-6
Projected Final Record: 22.9-7.1

Mountain West Conference Record: 11-4
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 12.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 2

Boise St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 59
RPI Rank: 50
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 5-2 5-2 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.714 0.714 1.000

Our current projections give the Boise State Broncos a 3.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 51.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Boise St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.4%
NIT #2 Seed 7.6%
NIT #3 Seed 13.2%
NIT #4 Seed 15.4%
NIT #5 Seed 4.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Boise State Broncos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Boise St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Eastern Oregon Home W 104-65
11/12 272 Southern Utah Home W 90-69
11/16 280 UTEP Conway, SC W 58-56
11/17 131 Illinois St Conway, SC W 82-64
11/19 81 Iowa St Conway, SC L 64-75
11/25 262 Loy Marymount Home W 68-48
11/28 60 Loyola-Chicago Home W 87-53
12/1 65 Oregon Away W 73-70
12/3 253 Portland Home W 77-54
12/9 289 CS Sacramento Home W 77-54
12/13 150 Grand Canyon Home W 85-80
12/18 88 SMU Away L 63-86
12/27 204 Colorado St Home W 93-71
12/30 86 UNLV Away W 83-74
1/3 136 New Mexico Home W 90-62
1/6 103 Wyoming Away L 78-79
1/9 80 Fresno St Away W 70-64
1/13 89 San Diego St Home W 83-80
1/17 132 Utah St Home W 71-67
1/20 23 Nevada Away L 68-74
1/24 321 San Jose St Home W 94-71
1/27 226 Air Force Away W 70-64
2/3 86 UNLV Home W 93-91
2/6 136 New Mexico Away W 73-71
2/10 132 Utah St Away L 65-71
2/14 23 Nevada Home L 72-77
2/17 226 Air Force Home W 76-52
2/21 204 Colorado St Away 70.3%
2/27 89 San Diego St Away 39.9%
3/3 103 Wyoming Home 81.6%