Boise State Broncos Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Boise State Broncos. All of these projections for Boise St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Boise St Record and Rankings

Record: 0-1
Projected Final Record: 15.3-13.7

Mountain West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 10.3-7.7
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 5

Boise St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 164
RPI Rank: 282
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Boise State Broncos a 5.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 35.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 59.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Boise St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.0%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 5.8%
NIT #4 Seed 15.2%
NIT #5 Seed 10.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Boise State Broncos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Boise St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 236 Idaho St Home L 70-72
11/16 334 Jackson St Home 95.7%
11/19 53 Creighton Neutral 19.8%
11/27 171 Drake Away 41.2%
12/1 143 Grand Canyon Away 32.8%
12/8 No Rank C Washington Home 98.6%
12/12 315 Alabama St Home 92%
12/15 15 Oregon Away 2.9%
12/19 155 Loy Marymount Away 39.2%
12/22 188 Pacific Home 71%
12/29 15 Oregon Home 12.7%
1/2 244 Wyoming Away 57.1%
1/5 79 San Diego St Home 39.2%
1/12 341 San Jose St Away 91.7%
1/15 16 Nevada Home 14.8%
1/19 136 Fresno St Home 57.3%
1/22 295 Air Force Away 68%
1/26 244 Wyoming Home 82.8%
1/29 263 Colorado St Away 61.8%
2/2 16 Nevada Away 3.6%
2/6 208 UNLV Home 75.7%
2/9 341 San Jose St Home 98.5%
2/13 136 Fresno St Away 34%
2/16 79 San Diego St Away 14.3%
2/23 165 Utah St Home 64.9%
2/27 263 Colorado St Home 86.6%
3/2 208 UNLV Away 50%
3/6 134 New Mexico Away 36.2%
3/9 295 Air Force Home 90.8%