Boise State Broncos Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Boise State Broncos. All of these projections for Boise St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Boise St Record and Rankings

Record: 23-9
Projected Final Record: 23.0-9.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 13-6
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 13.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 2

Boise St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 66
RPI Rank: 49
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 5-2 6-3 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.714 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Boise State Broncos a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 87.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 13.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Boise St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.4%
NIT #2 Seed 5.8%
NIT #3 Seed 39.4%
NIT #4 Seed 29.2%
NIT #5 Seed 10.2%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Boise State Broncos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Boise St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Eastern Oregon Home W 104-65
11/12 249 Southern Utah Home W 90-69
11/16 256 UTEP Conway, SC W 58-56
11/17 119 Illinois St Conway, SC W 82-64
11/19 92 Iowa St Conway, SC L 64-75
11/25 236 Loy Marymount Home W 68-48
11/28 46 Loyola-Chicago Home W 87-53
12/1 60 Oregon Away W 73-70
12/3 273 Portland Home W 77-54
12/9 300 CS Sacramento Home W 77-54
12/13 123 Grand Canyon Home W 85-80
12/18 98 SMU Away L 63-86
12/27 215 Colorado St Home W 93-71
12/30 102 UNLV Away W 83-74
1/3 99 New Mexico Home W 90-62
1/6 109 Wyoming Away L 78-79
1/9 89 Fresno St Away W 70-64
1/13 64 San Diego St Home W 83-80
1/17 141 Utah St Home W 71-67
1/20 34 Nevada Away L 68-74
1/24 313 San Jose St Home W 94-71
1/27 218 Air Force Away W 70-64
2/3 102 UNLV Home W 93-91
2/6 99 New Mexico Away W 73-71
2/10 141 Utah St Away L 65-71
2/14 34 Nevada Home L 72-77
2/17 218 Air Force Home W 76-52
2/21 215 Colorado St Away W 87-54
2/27 64 San Diego St Away L 64-72
3/3 109 Wyoming Home W 95-87
3/8 141 Utah St Las Vegas, NV L 75-78
3/14 80 Washington Away L 74-77