Bowling Green Falcons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Bowling Green Falcons. All of these projections for Bowling Green are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Bowling Green Record and Rankings

Record: 22-12
Projected Final Record: 22.0-12.0

MAC Conference Record: 12-6
Projected Final MAC Record: 12.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 3

Bowling Green Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 104
RPI Rank: 74
NET Rank: 116
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 2-1 8-5 9-2
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.667 0.615 0.818

Our current projections give the Bowling Green Falcons a 16.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 80.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Bowling Green’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Bowling Green Falcons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Bowling Green Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Tiffin Home W 91-52
11/9 61 St John’s Away L 80-84
11/12 47 VA Commonwealth Away L 61-72
11/15 305 NC Central Home W 75-60
11/19 226 Hampton Neutal W 81-79
11/20 248 Detroit Away L 67-82
11/25 238 Drexel Home W 81-71
12/1 197 Hartford Away L 63-76
12/5 285 Cleveland St Away L 64-82
12/8 198 WI Green Bay Home W 97-68
12/16 No Rank Findlay Home W 82-57
12/21 289 W Carolina Home W 73-52
12/30 283 TN Martin Home W 94-80
1/5 112 Kent Away W 86-64
1/8 171 Ohio Home W 82-63
1/12 117 C Michigan Away W 97-87
1/15 149 Ball St Home W 79-78
1/19 282 W Michigan Home W 79-48
1/22 155 E Michigan Away W 80-67
1/26 154 Miami OH Away L 53-67
2/1 18 Buffalo Home W 92-88
2/5 282 W Michigan Away W 85-72
2/9 64 Toledo Home L 71-78
2/12 117 C Michigan Home W 79-72
2/16 143 N Illinois Away W 87-67
2/19 132 Akron Home W 73-69
2/22 171 Ohio Away L 87-92
2/26 154 Miami OH Home L 69-82
3/1 112 Kent Home W 77-72
3/5 132 Akron Away L 67-91
3/8 18 Buffalo Away L 73-84
3/14 149 Ball St Neutal W 99-86
3/15 143 N Illinois Neutal W 71-67
3/16 18 Buffalo Neutral L 73-87