Bowling Green Falcons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Bowling Green Falcons. All of these projections for Bowling Green are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/14/2019.

Bowling Green Record and Rankings

Record: 17-7
Projected Final Record: 20.7-10.3

MAC Conference Record: 9-2
Projected Final MAC Record: 12.7-5.3
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 3

Bowling Green Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 99
RPI Rank: 82
NET Rank: 112
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 3-2 2-2 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.600 0.500 0.900

Our current projections give the Bowling Green Falcons a 6.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 36.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 57.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Bowling Green’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 2.2%
NIT #4 Seed 4.6%
NIT #5 Seed 10.0%
NIT #6 Seed 13.8%
NIT #7 Seed 5.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Bowling Green Falcons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Bowling Green Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Tiffin Home W 91-52
11/9 40 St John’s Away L 80-84
11/12 49 VA Commonwealth Away L 61-72
11/15 330 NC Central Home W 75-60
11/19 268 Hampton Neutal W 81-79
11/20 241 Detroit Away L 67-82
11/25 207 Drexel Home W 81-71
12/1 196 Hartford Away L 63-76
12/5 317 Cleveland St Away L 64-82
12/8 222 WI Green Bay Home W 97-68
12/16 No Rank Findlay Home W 82-57
12/21 279 W Carolina Home W 73-52
12/30 302 TN Martin Home W 94-80
1/5 114 Kent Away W 86-64
1/8 187 Ohio Home W 82-63
1/12 136 C Michigan Away W 97-87
1/15 130 Ball St Home W 79-78
1/19 291 W Michigan Home W 79-48
1/22 161 E Michigan Away W 80-67
1/26 143 Miami OH Away L 53-67
2/1 25 Buffalo Home W 92-88
2/5 291 W Michigan Away W 85-72
2/9 52 Toledo Home L 71-78
2/12 136 C Michigan Home W 79-72
2/16 160 N Illinois Away 55.9%
2/19 133 Akron Home 62.1%
2/23 187 Ohio Away 62.8%
2/26 143 Miami OH Home 66.8%
3/2 114 Kent Home 61.5%
3/5 133 Akron Away 45.6%
3/8 25 Buffalo Away 14.3%