Buffalo Bulls Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Buffalo Bulls. All of these projections for Buffalo are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Buffalo Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 25.6-4.4

MAC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final MAC Record: 15.6-2.4
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 1

Buffalo Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 18
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Buffalo Bulls a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Buffalo’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 57.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 27.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Buffalo Bulls. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Buffalo Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 202 St Francis PA Home W 82-67
11/9 44 West Virginia Away W 99-94
11/12 158 S Illinois Away 83.3%
11/21 245 Dartmouth Home 98.5%
11/24 281 Marist Home 98.7%
11/30 271 WI Milwaukee Neutral 95.9%
12/5 No Rank Le Moyne Home 99.6%
12/8 90 St Bonaventure Away 65.3%
12/15 158 S Illinois Home 93%
12/18 26 Syracuse Away 44.5%
12/21 31 Marquette Away 51.1%
12/29 122 Canisius Away 72.5%
1/4 117 E Michigan Away 74.8%
1/8 102 Toledo Home 86.8%
1/12 185 Miami OH Home 93%
1/15 191 W Michigan Away 85.2%
1/18 117 E Michigan Home 89.4%
1/22 232 N Illinois Away 91.9%
1/25 153 Kent Away 83.8%
1/29 99 Ball St Home 84.5%
2/2 176 Bowling Green Away 83.8%
2/9 123 C Michigan Home 89.2%
2/12 190 Akron Away 87.3%
2/16 102 Toledo Away 70.3%
2/19 156 Ohio Home 92.2%
2/23 153 Kent Home 92.6%
2/26 190 Akron Home 93.8%
3/2 185 Miami OH Away 84.5%
3/5 156 Ohio Away 82.6%
3/8 176 Bowling Green Home 92.6%