Buffalo Bulls Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Buffalo Bulls. All of these projections for Buffalo are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Buffalo Record and Rankings

Record: 17-1
Projected Final Record: 28.3-2.7

MAC Conference Record: 5-0
Projected Final MAC Record: 16.3-1.7
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 1

Buffalo Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 9
RPI Rank: 14
NET Rank: 13
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 4-0 5-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Buffalo Bulls a 96.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Buffalo’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 11.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 20.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 16.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Buffalo Bulls. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Buffalo Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 243 St Francis PA Home W 82-67
11/9 84 West Virginia Away W 99-94
11/12 148 S Illinois Away W 62-53
11/21 199 Dartmouth Home W 110-71
11/24 288 Marist Home W 76-49
11/30 267 WI Milwaukee Neutal W 96-77
12/1 45 San Francisco Neutal W 85-81
12/5 No Rank Le Moyne Home W 89-55
12/8 195 St Bonaventure Away W 80-62
12/15 148 S Illinois Home W 73-65
12/18 41 Syracuse Away W 71-59
12/21 18 Marquette Away L 85-103
12/29 233 Canisius Away W 87-72
1/4 162 E Michigan Away W 74-58
1/8 62 Toledo Home W 110-80
1/12 180 Miami OH Home W 88-64
1/15 252 W Michigan Away W 88-79
1/18 162 E Michigan Home W 77-65
1/22 144 N Illinois Away 85.7%
1/25 116 Kent Away 83.3%
1/29 93 Ball St Home 91.4%
2/2 117 Bowling Green Away 82.6%
2/9 133 C Michigan Home 93%
2/12 158 Akron Away 84.5%
2/16 62 Toledo Away 67.2%
2/19 150 Ohio Home 93%
2/23 116 Kent Home 92%
2/26 158 Akron Home 92.6%
3/2 180 Miami OH Away 90.6%
3/5 150 Ohio Away 84.5%
3/8 117 Bowling Green Home 91.8%