Butler Bulldogs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Butler Bulldogs. All of these projections for Butler are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Butler Record and Rankings

Record: 12-7
Projected Final Record: 18.5-12.5

Big East Conference Record: 3-3
Projected Final Big East Record: 9.5-8.5
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 4

Butler Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 42
RPI Rank: 42
NET Rank: 47
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 3-2 4-1 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.600 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Butler Bulldogs a 66.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 28.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Butler’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 9.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 11.0%
NIT #2 Seed 6.4%
NIT #3 Seed 4.6%
NIT #4 Seed 3.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Butler Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Butler Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 180 Miami OH Home W 90-68
11/12 192 Detroit Home W 84-63
11/16 23 Mississippi Home W 83-76
11/21 70 Dayton Neutral L 64-69
11/22 292 MTSU Neutal W 84-53
11/23 40 Florida Neutal W 61-54
12/1 64 St Louis Away L 52-64
12/5 135 Brown Home W 70-55
12/8 144 N Illinois Home W 95-68
12/15 34 Indiana Neutral L 68-71
12/18 213 Presbyterian Home W 76-67
12/21 107 UC Irvine Home W 71-54
12/29 40 Florida Away L 43-77
1/2 86 Georgetown Home L 76-84
1/5 60 Creighton Home W 84-69
1/9 48 Seton Hall Away L 75-76
1/13 74 Xavier Away L 69-70
1/16 88 DePaul Away W 87-69
1/19 38 St John’s Home W 80-71
1/22 25 Villanova Home 48.2%
1/25 60 Creighton Away 48.9%
1/30 18 Marquette Home 48.2%
2/2 48 Seton Hall Home 65.6%
2/9 86 Georgetown Away 56.5%
2/12 38 St John’s Away 38.2%
2/16 88 DePaul Home 82.8%
2/20 18 Marquette Away 24.3%
2/26 80 Providence Home 79.4%
3/2 25 Villanova Away 24.7%
3/5 74 Xavier Home 79.2%
3/9 80 Providence Away 52.9%