Butler Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Butler Bulldogs. All of these projections for Butler are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Butler Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 20.0-9.0

Big East Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big East Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 3

Butler Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 28
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 9 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Butler Bulldogs a 76.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 17.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 6.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Butler’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 12.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Butler Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Butler Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 185 Miami OH Home W 90-68
11/12 331 Detroit Home 98.9%
11/16 91 Mississippi Home 82.1%
11/21 179 Dayton Neutral 88.5%
12/1 146 St Louis Away 74.8%
12/5 273 Brown Home 98.5%
12/8 232 N Illinois Home 95.1%
12/15 20 Indiana Neutral 36.6%
12/18 250 Presbyterian Home 98.5%
12/21 92 UC Irvine Home 85%
12/29 48 Florida Away 47.8%
1/2 124 Georgetown Home 91.1%
1/5 53 Creighton Home 76.2%
1/9 27 Seton Hall Away 37.9%
1/13 50 Xavier Away 57.1%
1/16 98 DePaul Away 60.8%
1/19 72 St John’s Home 81.1%
1/22 2 Villanova Home 35.5%
1/25 53 Creighton Away 50.4%
1/30 31 Marquette Home 64.9%
2/2 27 Seton Hall Home 60.8%
2/9 124 Georgetown Away 68.3%
2/12 72 St John’s Away 55.7%
2/16 98 DePaul Home 85.7%
2/20 31 Marquette Away 42.2%
2/26 71 Providence Home 81.1%
3/2 2 Villanova Away 11.4%
3/5 50 Xavier Home 83%
3/9 71 Providence Away 55.7%