Butler Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Butler Bulldogs. All of these projections for Butler are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Butler Record and Rankings

Record: 18-10
Projected Final Record: 19.6-11.4

Big East Conference Record: 8-7
Projected Final Big East Record: 9.6-8.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 5

Butler Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 29
RPI Rank: 39
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-8 5-1 4-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.273 0.833 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Butler Bulldogs a 96.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Butler’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 20.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 20.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Butler Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Butler Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 296 Kennesaw Home W 82-64
11/12 212 Princeton Home W 85-75
11/15 53 Maryland Away L 65-79
11/18 111 Furman Home W 82-65
11/23 39 Texas Portland, OR L 48-61
11/24 157 Portland St Portland, OR W 71-69
11/26 14 Ohio St Portland, OR W 67-66
12/2 120 St Louis Home W 75-45
12/5 52 Utah Home W 81-69
12/9 320 Youngstown St Home W 95-67
12/16 7 Purdue Indianapolis, IN L 67-82
12/19 306 Morehead St Home W 85-69
12/21 273 W Illinois Home W 107-46
12/27 77 Georgetown Away W 91-89
12/30 2 Villanova Home W 101-93
1/2 5 Xavier Away L 79-86
1/6 36 Seton Hall Home L 87-90
1/9 24 Creighton Away L 74-85
1/12 47 Marquette Home W 94-83
1/15 55 Providence Away L 60-70
1/20 102 DePaul Away W 79-67
1/27 64 St John’s Home W 70-45
1/31 47 Marquette Away W 92-72
2/3 102 DePaul Home W 80-57
2/6 5 Xavier Home L 93-98
2/10 2 Villanova Away L 75-86
2/13 77 Georgetown Home L 83-87
2/17 55 Providence Home W 69-54
2/20 24 Creighton Home 63.1%
2/28 64 St John’s Away 55.1%
3/3 36 Seton Hall Away 40.9%