Cal Poly Mustangs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Cal Poly Mustangs. All of these projections for Cal Poly are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Cal Poly Record and Rankings

Record: 4-11
Projected Final Record: 7.5-21.5

Big West Conference Record: 0-2
Projected Final Big West Record: 3.5-12.5
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 9

Cal Poly Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 333
RPI Rank: 338
NET Rank: 327
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 0-3 2-5
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.286

Our current projections give the Cal Poly Mustangs a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cal Poly’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cal Poly Mustangs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cal Poly Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 No Rank Menlo Home W 82-75
11/11 44 Arizona Away L 61-82
11/19 215 Washington St Away L 70-84
11/21 96 Texas St Neutral L 42-54
11/23 310 Portland Away L 67-72
11/24 328 SC Upstate Neutal W 75-74
12/1 59 Fresno St Away L 67-76
12/8 312 Bethune-Cookman Home W 80-78
12/15 226 California Away L 66-67
12/18 146 CS Bakersfield Away L 61-74
12/21 233 UT Arlington Home L 70-75
12/29 270 Siena Away L 54-75
1/4 No Rank Holy Names Home W 68-47
1/9 139 UC Santa Barbara Away L 56-65
1/12 273 CS Northridge Home L 74-78
1/19 274 UC Davis Away 17.2%
1/23 314 UC Riverside Home 54.8%
1/26 254 CS Fullerton Home 39.2%
1/31 314 UC Riverside Away 32.4%
2/2 273 CS Northridge Away 20.1%
2/7 274 UC Davis Home 41.8%
2/9 180 Long Beach St Home 31.7%
2/14 152 Hawaii Away 8%
2/21 112 UC Irvine Away 6.6%
2/23 152 Hawaii Home 26.6%
2/28 254 CS Fullerton Away 16.7%
3/2 180 Long Beach St Away 12.2%
3/7 112 UC Irvine Home 19.1%
3/9 139 UC Santa Barbara Home 25.7%