Cal Poly Mustangs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Cal Poly Mustangs. All of these projections for Cal Poly are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Cal Poly Record and Rankings

Record: 6-23
Projected Final Record: 6.0-23.0

Big West Conference Record: 2-14
Projected Final Big West Record: 2.0-14.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 9

Cal Poly Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 334
RPI Rank: 339
NET Rank: 332
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-3 0-9 4-10
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.286

Our current projections give the Cal Poly Mustangs a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cal Poly’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cal Poly Mustangs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cal Poly Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 No Rank Menlo Home W 82-75
11/11 108 Arizona Away L 61-82
11/19 200 Washington St Away L 70-84
11/21 128 Texas St Neutral L 42-54
11/23 329 Portland Away L 67-72
11/24 344 SC Upstate Neutal W 75-74
12/1 86 Fresno St Away L 67-76
12/8 317 Bethune-Cookman Home W 80-78
12/15 230 California Away L 66-67
12/18 215 CS Bakersfield Away L 61-74
12/21 147 UT Arlington Home L 70-75
12/29 234 Siena Away L 54-75
1/4 No Rank Holy Names Home W 68-47
1/9 176 UC Santa Barbara Away L 56-65
1/12 269 CS Northridge Home L 74-78
1/19 260 UC Davis Away L 63-75
1/23 316 UC Riverside Home L 51-74
1/26 190 CS Fullerton Home L 63-80
1/31 316 UC Riverside Away W 71-45
2/2 269 CS Northridge Away L 65-83
2/7 260 UC Davis Home L 53-63
2/9 210 Long Beach St Home L 68-76
2/14 186 Hawaii Away L 54-75
2/21 70 UC Irvine Away L 47-74
2/23 186 Hawaii Home W 88-80
2/28 190 CS Fullerton Away L 75-86
3/2 210 Long Beach St Away L 85-94
3/7 70 UC Irvine Home L 72-110
3/9 176 UC Santa Barbara Home L 82-92