California Golden Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the California Golden Bears. All of these projections for California are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

California Record and Rankings

Record: 5-11
Projected Final Record: 8.5-21.5

Pac-12 Conference Record: 0-4
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 3.5-14.5
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 12

California Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 226
RPI Rank: 212
NET Rank: 225
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-5 0-2 5-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.833

Our current projections give the California Golden Bears a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account California’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the California Golden Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

California Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 88 Yale Neutral L 59-76
11/13 293 Hampton Home W 80-66
11/19 34 St John’s Neutral L 79-82
11/20 40 Temple Neutral L 59-76
11/26 192 Santa Clara Home W 78-66
12/1 64 St Mary’s CA Away L 71-84
12/5 52 San Francisco Home L 60-79
12/8 151 San Diego St Home W 89-83
12/15 333 Cal Poly Home W 67-66
12/19 59 Fresno St Away L 73-95
12/21 326 San Jose St Home W 88-80
12/29 157 Seattle Home L 73-82
1/3 126 USC Away L 73-82
1/5 83 UCLA Away L 83-98
1/9 61 Arizona St Home L 66-80
1/12 44 Arizona Home L 65-87
1/17 215 Washington St Away 35.1%
1/19 41 Washington Away 6.6%
1/24 108 Colorado Home 35.9%
1/26 119 Utah Home 37.2%
2/3 132 Stanford Home 39.5%
2/6 81 Oregon Away 8.2%
2/9 57 Oregon St Away 7.8%
2/13 83 UCLA Home 31.7%
2/16 126 USC Home 38.2%
2/21 44 Arizona Away 7%
2/24 61 Arizona St Away 8.2%
2/28 41 Washington Home 20.8%
3/2 215 Washington St Home 57.5%
3/7 132 Stanford Away 16%