California Golden Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the California Golden Bears. All of these projections for California are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

California Record and Rankings

Record: 8-23
Projected Final Record: 8.0-23.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 3-15
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 3.0-15.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 12

California Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 230
RPI Rank: 257
NET Rank: 230
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-6 0-7 2-8 5-2
Win % by Tier 0.143 0.000 0.200 0.714

Our current projections give the California Golden Bears a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account California’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the California Golden Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

California Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 83 Yale Neutral L 59-76
11/13 226 Hampton Home W 80-66
11/19 61 St John’s Neutral L 79-82
11/20 56 Temple Neutral L 59-76
11/26 172 Santa Clara Home W 78-66
12/1 39 St Mary’s CA Away L 71-84
12/5 94 San Francisco Home L 60-79
12/8 100 San Diego St Home W 89-83
12/15 334 Cal Poly Home W 67-66
12/19 86 Fresno St Away L 73-95
12/21 339 San Jose St Home W 88-80
12/29 188 Seattle Home L 73-82
1/3 120 USC Away L 73-82
1/5 116 UCLA Away L 83-98
1/9 62 Arizona St Home L 66-80
1/12 108 Arizona Home L 65-87
1/17 200 Washington St Away L 59-82
1/19 42 Washington Away L 52-71
1/24 80 Colorado Home L 59-68
1/26 96 Utah Home L 64-82
2/3 135 Stanford Home L 81-84
2/6 57 Oregon Away L 62-73
2/9 91 Oregon St Away L 71-79
2/13 116 UCLA Home L 67-75
2/16 120 USC Home L 66-89
2/21 108 Arizona Away L 51-76
2/24 62 Arizona St Away L 59-69
2/28 42 Washington Home W 76-73
3/2 200 Washington St Home W 76-69
3/7 135 Stanford Away W 64-59
3/13 80 Colorado Neutral L 51-56