Central Arkansas Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Central Arkansas Bears. All of these projections for Cent Arkansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Cent Arkansas Record and Rankings

Record: 8-10
Projected Final Record: 14.9-16.1

Southland Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final Southland Record: 9.9-8.1
Projected Final Rank in the Southland: 4

Cent Arkansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 245
RPI Rank: 231
NET Rank: 259
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-2 0-2 5-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.714

Our current projections give the Central Arkansas Bears a 3.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 96.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cent Arkansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 3.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Central Arkansas Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cent Arkansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 87 Missouri Away L 55-68
11/8 No Rank Hendrix Home W 99-73
11/12 No Rank Univ Ozarks Home W 93-52
11/15 62 Pittsburgh Away L 71-97
11/18 183 Troy Away L 77-82
11/24 67 St Louis Away L 61-73
11/28 248 Ark Little Rock Home W 78-65
12/5 23 Louisville Away L 41-86
12/8 248 Ark Little Rock Away W 85-82
12/16 186 New Mexico Away L 70-82
12/19 31 Indiana Away L 53-86
12/21 74 Oklahoma St Away L 73-82
12/30 No Rank Lyon Home W 62-47
1/2 280 TAM C. Christi Away L 75-87
1/5 320 SE Louisiana Away W 73-71
1/9 184 Sam Houston St Home L 69-78
1/12 277 Lamar Home W 75-68
1/16 337 Incarnate Word Away W 77-60
1/19 284 Nicholls St Home 70.3%
1/23 208 New Orleans Home 51.5%
1/26 140 Abilene Chr Away 17.2%
1/30 257 SF Austin Away 43.5%
2/2 330 Northwestern LA Home 82.6%
2/9 320 SE Louisiana Home 77.7%
2/13 242 Houston Bap Home 57.5%
2/20 298 McNeese St Away 51.5%
2/23 284 Nicholls St Away 50.4%
2/27 257 SF Austin Home 61.5%
3/2 140 Abilene Chr Home 39.5%
3/6 184 Sam Houston St Away 26.7%
3/9 330 Northwestern LA Away 60.1%