Cincinnati Bearcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. All of these projections for Cincinnati are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Cincinnati Record and Rankings

Record: 16-3
Projected Final Record: 23.9-7.1

AAC Conference Record: 5-1
Projected Final AAC Record: 12.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 2

Cincinnati Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 32
RPI Rank: 33
NET Rank: 35
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 3-1 6-0 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.750 1.000 0.857

Our current projections give the Cincinnati Bearcats a 82.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 14.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 4.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cincinnati’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 15.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.6%
NIT #2 Seed 3.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.8%
NIT #4 Seed 1.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.6%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cincinnati Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 39 Ohio St Home L 56-64
11/13 329 NC Central Home W 73-51
11/16 267 WI Milwaukee Home W 74-63
11/19 252 W Michigan Home W 78-52
11/23 137 George Mason Neutal W 71-55
11/24 23 Mississippi Neutal W 71-57
11/27 304 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 105-49
12/1 156 UNLV Away W 65-61
12/4 102 N Kentucky Home W 78-65
12/8 74 Xavier Home W 62-47
12/15 28 Mississippi St Away L 59-70
12/19 96 UCLA Home W 93-64
12/22 340 S Carolina St Home W 77-56
1/2 311 Tulane Home W 93-61
1/5 212 East Carolina Away L 71-73
1/10 104 Tulsa Away W 70-65
1/12 95 Connecticut Home W 74-72
1/15 131 South Florida Home W 82-74
1/19 115 Wichita St Away W 66-55
1/24 104 Tulsa Home 88.3%
1/27 54 Temple Away 56.9%
2/2 121 SMU Home 87.5%
2/7 76 Memphis Away 60.1%
2/10 13 Houston Away 29.4%
2/17 115 Wichita St Home 87%
2/21 46 UCF Home 73.3%
2/24 95 Connecticut Away 61.5%
2/27 121 SMU Away 64.1%
3/2 76 Memphis Home 83%
3/7 46 UCF Away 50%
3/10 13 Houston Home 52.9%