Cincinnati Bearcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. All of these projections for Cincinnati are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Cincinnati Record and Rankings

Record: 27-6
Projected Final Record: 27.0-6.0

AAC Conference Record: 14-4
Projected Final AAC Record: 14.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 2

Cincinnati Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 24
RPI Rank: 15
NET Rank: 25
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-4 5-1 12-0 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.833 1.000 0.857

Our current projections give the Cincinnati Bearcats a 91.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cincinnati’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 33.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 33.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cincinnati Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 46 Ohio St Home L 56-64
11/13 305 NC Central Home W 73-51
11/16 306 WI Milwaukee Home W 74-63
11/19 282 W Michigan Home W 78-52
11/23 150 George Mason Neutal W 71-55
11/24 38 Mississippi Neutal W 71-57
11/27 319 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 105-49
12/1 156 UNLV Away W 65-61
12/4 113 N Kentucky Home W 78-65
12/8 60 Xavier Home W 62-47
12/15 21 Mississippi St Away L 59-70
12/19 116 UCLA Home W 93-64
12/22 342 S Carolina St Home W 77-56
1/2 313 Tulane Home W 93-61
1/5 253 East Carolina Away L 71-73
1/10 107 Tulsa Away W 70-65
1/12 106 Connecticut Home W 74-72
1/15 122 South Florida Home W 82-74
1/19 74 Wichita St Away W 66-55
1/24 107 Tulsa Home W 88-64
1/27 56 Temple Away W 72-68
2/2 110 SMU Home W 73-68
2/7 58 Memphis Away W 69-64
2/10 9 Houston Away L 58-65
2/17 74 Wichita St Home W 72-62
2/21 35 UCF Home W 60-55
2/24 106 Connecticut Away W 64-60
2/27 110 SMU Away W 52-49
3/2 58 Memphis Home W 71-69
3/7 35 UCF Away L 55-58
3/10 9 Houston Home L 69-85
3/15 110 SMU Neutal W 82-74
3/16 74 Wichita St Neutal W 66-63