Cincinnati Bearcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. All of these projections for Cincinnati are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Cincinnati Record and Rankings

Record: 23-4
Projected Final Record: 26.4-4.6

AAC Conference Record: 12-2
Projected Final AAC Record: 15.4-2.6
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 1

Cincinnati Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 3
RPI Rank: 12
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-3 7-1 3-0 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.625 0.875 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Cincinnati Bearcats a 99.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cincinnati’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 22.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 16.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 17.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cincinnati Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 276 Savannah St Home W 107-77
11/13 251 W Carolina Home W 102-51
11/16 342 Coppin St Home W 97-54
11/20 79 Buffalo George Town, Cayman Islands W 73-67
11/21 180 Richmond George Town, Cayman Islands W 75-48
11/22 103 Wyoming George Town, Cayman Islands W 78-53
11/27 341 Alabama St Home W 83-51
12/2 5 Xavier Away L 76-89
12/9 35 Florida Newark, NJ L 60-66
12/12 50 Mississippi St Home W 65-50
12/16 43 UCLA Away W 77-63
12/19 331 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 77-49
12/21 315 Cleveland St Home W 81-62
12/31 112 Memphis Home W 82-48
1/4 75 Temple Away W 55-53
1/7 88 SMU Home W 76-56
1/13 287 South Florida Away W 78-55
1/16 68 UCF Away W 49-38
1/20 256 East Carolina Home W 86-60
1/24 75 Temple Home W 75-42
1/27 112 Memphis Away W 62-48
1/31 22 Houston Home W 80-70
2/3 129 Connecticut Away W 65-57
2/6 68 UCF Home W 77-40
2/11 88 SMU Away W 76-51
2/15 22 Houston Away L 62-67
2/18 17 Wichita St Home L 72-76
2/22 129 Connecticut Home 97.1%
2/25 99 Tulsa Home 93.8%
3/1 174 Tulane Away 91.9%
3/4 17 Wichita St Away 53.7%