Cincinnati Bearcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. All of these projections for Cincinnati are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Cincinnati Record and Rankings

Record: 0-1
Projected Final Record: 21.7-9.3

AAC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final AAC Record: 12.5-5.5
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 2

Cincinnati Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 52
RPI Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Cincinnati Bearcats a 93.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Cincinnati’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 26.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 26.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.0%
NIT #2 Seed 1.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Cincinnati Bearcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Cincinnati Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 8 Ohio St Home L 56-64
11/13 290 NC Central Home 98.5%
11/16 271 WI Milwaukee Home 93.4%
11/19 191 W Michigan Home 88.9%
11/23 207 George Mason Neutral 83.5%
11/24 91 Mississippi Neutral 54.7%
11/27 314 Ark Pine Bluff Home 98.6%
12/1 208 UNLV Away 73.4%
12/4 145 N Kentucky Home 85.4%
12/8 50 Xavier Home 66.8%
12/15 32 Mississippi St Away 21.8%
12/19 42 UCLA Home 53.3%
12/22 337 S Carolina St Home 98.8%
1/2 215 Tulane Home 92.2%
1/5 292 East Carolina Away 91.7%
1/10 107 Tulsa Away 55.7%
1/12 160 Connecticut Home 87.3%
1/15 256 South Florida Home 93.8%
1/19 88 Wichita St Away 49.3%
1/24 107 Tulsa Home 80.6%
1/27 116 Temple Away 56.1%
2/2 210 SMU Home 92%
2/7 105 Memphis Away 51.1%
2/10 33 Houston Away 21.8%
2/17 88 Wichita St Home 74.3%
2/21 131 UCF Home 85%
2/24 160 Connecticut Away 63.4%
2/27 210 SMU Away 73.4%
3/2 105 Memphis Home 75.7%
3/7 131 UCF Away 60.1%
3/10 33 Houston Home 47.4%