Colonial Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Colonial Athletic Association Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Colonial are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Colonial Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Hofstra 22 5 25.3 5.7 12 2 15.3 2.7
2 Northeastern 16 10 19.1 10.9 10 4 13.1 4.9
3 Col Charleston 21 7 23.3 7.7 10 5 12.3 5.7
4 Delaware 16 12 17 14 8 7 9 9
5 William & Mary 10 16 12.1 17.9 6 8 8.1 9.9
6 Towson 10 17 11.4 19.6 6 8 7.4 10.6
7 Drexel 12 16 13.2 17.8 6 9 7.2 10.8
8 James Madison 12 15 13.5 17.5 5 9 6.5 11.5
9 UNC Wilmington 9 19 9.9 21.1 5 10 5.9 12.1
10 Elon 8 19 9.1 21.9 4 10 5.1 12.9

Projected Colonial Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Colonial Athletic Association Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Hofstra 14 2.775

Projected Colonial Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Hofstra 97% 3% 0% 0% 100%
Northeastern 3% 72% 25% 0% 100%
Col Charleston 0% 25% 75% 0% 100%
Delaware 0% 0% 0% 66% 100%
William & Mary 0% 0% 0% 21% 94%
Towson 0% 0% 0% 9% 92%
Drexel 0% 0% 0% 3% 91%
James Madison 0% 0% 0% 1% 68%
UNC Wilmington 0% 0% 0% 0% 42%
Elon 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%

Colonial Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The CAA Men’s Conference Championship is played on a neutral site and follows the standard rules for a ten team tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: North Charleston Coliseum (North Charleston, SC)
First Round: March 9th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 10th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Hofstra
100%
84.7%
68.9%
39.7%
2
Northeastern
100%
82.3%
49.2%
28.1%
3
Col Charleston
100%
82%
41.8%
21.6%
4
Delaware
100%
45%
9.3%
2.2%
5
William & Mary
94%
42.7%
13.1%
4%
6
Towson
85%
23.8%
5.4%
1.6%
7
Drexel
74.2%
16.1%
5%
1.1%
8
James Madison
61.2%
11.9%
3.4%
0.6%
9
UNC Wilmington
51.6%
7%
2.9%
0.8%
10
Elon
34%
4.5%
1%
0.3%

Colonial Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Col Charleston 62.5% William & Mary 37.6% Col Charleston wins by 4
2/21 UNC Wilmington 53.7% Elon 46.3% UNC Wilmington wins by 1
2/21 Towson 8% Hofstra 92% Hofstra wins by 14
2/21 James Madison 9.4% Northeastern 90.6% Northeastern wins by 13
2/23 Col Charleston 80.9% Elon 19.1% Col Charleston wins by 9
2/23 Delaware 40.2% Drexel 59.8% Drexel wins by 4
2/23 James Madison 8% Hofstra 92% Hofstra wins by 14
2/23 Towson 9.2% Northeastern 90.8% Northeastern wins by 13
2/23 UNC Wilmington 28.2% William & Mary 71.8% William & Mary wins by 7
2/28 Northeastern 65.3% Delaware 34.7% Northeastern wins by 5
2/28 Hofstra 71.2% Drexel 28.8% Hofstra wins by 7
2/28 Elon 21.8% James Madison 78.2% James Madison wins by 8
2/28 William & Mary 48.9% Towson 51.1% Towson wins by 1
3/2 UNC Wilmington 10.8% Col Charleston 89.2% Col Charleston wins by 13
3/2 Hofstra 70.3% Delaware 29.7% Hofstra wins by 7
3/2 Northeastern 66% Drexel 34% Northeastern wins by 5
3/2 Elon 23.3% Towson 76.7% Towson wins by 8
3/2 William & Mary 48.2% James Madison 51.8% James Madison wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC