Colonial Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Colonial Athletic Association Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Colonial are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Colonial Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Col Charleston 22 6 23.4 6.6 13 3 14.4 3.6
2 Northeastern 19 9 20.3 9.7 12 4 13.3 4.7
3 Hofstra 17 11 18.2 11.8 10 6 11.2 6.8
4 William & Mary 16 11 17.2 11.8 9 7 10.2 7.8
5 Towson 18 11 18.7 12.3 8 8 8.7 9.3
6 Elon 14 14 15.2 15.8 6 9 7.2 10.8
7 UNC Wilmington 9 19 9.6 20.4 6 10 6.6 11.4
8 James Madison 9 19 10.3 20.7 5 10 6.3 11.7
9 Drexel 11 18 12.2 18.8 5 11 6.2 11.8
10 Delaware 12 17 13 18 5 11 6 12

Projected Colonial Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Colonial Athletic Association Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Col Charleston 15 1.625

Colonial Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Colonial team. The CAA Men’s Conference Championship is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: North Charleston Coliseum (North Charleston, SC)
First Round: March 3rd, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 4th, 2018
Semifinals: March 5th, 2018
Finals: March 6th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Col Charleston
100%
75.7%
44.1%
26.5%
2
Northeastern
100%
75.4%
47.9%
26.5%
3
Hofstra
100%
64.7%
31%
15.2%
4
William & Mary
100%
45.4%
20.8%
9.3%
5
Towson
100%
54.6%
28.3%
13.7%
6
Elon
100%
35.3%
12.4%
3.9%
7
UNC Wilmington
54.2%
14.1%
4.9%
1.5%
8
James Madison
52.5%
14.1%
3.5%
0.9%
9
Drexel
47.5%
10.2%
3.3%
1.3%
10
Delaware
45.8%
10.5%
3.8%
1.2%

Colonial Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Elon 15.5% Col Charleston 84.5% Col Charleston wins by 11
2/22 Delaware 39.9% Drexel 60.1% Drexel wins by 4
2/22 Hofstra 55.9% James Madison 44.1% Hofstra wins by 2
2/22 Towson 31.7% Northeastern 68.3% Northeastern wins by 6
2/22 UNC Wilmington 21.8% William & Mary 78.2% William & Mary wins by 8
2/24 James Madison 43.7% Delaware 56.3% Delaware wins by 2
2/24 UNC Wilmington 42.7% Drexel 57.3% Drexel wins by 3
2/24 Northeastern 60.5% Elon 39.5% Northeastern wins by 4
2/24 Towson 40.9% Hofstra 59.2% Hofstra wins by 3
2/24 Col Charleston 54.4% William & Mary 45.6% Col Charleston wins by 2
2/26 James Madison 39.5% Elon 60.5% Elon wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC