Colonial Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Colonial Athletic Association Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Colonial are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

Colonial Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Col Charleston 9 2 25 6 0 0 14.3 3.7
2 Northeastern 5 6 18.8 11.2 0 0 13 5
3 Hofstra 8 3 21.8 9.2 0 0 12.4 5.6
4 Delaware 8 4 18.2 12.8 0 0 9.2 8.8
5 William & Mary 4 7 12.6 17.4 0 0 8.6 9.4
6 UNC Wilmington 4 7 13 18 0 0 8.6 9.4
7 James Madison 7 5 15.1 15.9 0 0 7.7 10.3
8 Drexel 6 5 13.5 17.5 0 0 7.4 10.6
9 Towson 3 7 9.8 21.2 0 0 5.2 12.8
10 Elon 3 8 7.4 23.6 0 0 3.8 14.2

Projected Colonial Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Colonial Athletic Association Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Col Charleston 13 3.861

Projected Colonial Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Col Charleston 62% 26% 10% 1% 100%
Northeastern 24% 35% 30% 7% 100%
Hofstra 12% 30% 33% 17% 100%
Delaware 0% 5% 7% 27% 97%
William & Mary 1% 2% 8% 15% 96%
UNC Wilmington 1% 2% 7% 17% 92%
James Madison 0% 0% 3% 11% 86%
Drexel 0% 0% 2% 5% 79%
Towson 0% 0% 0% 0% 43%
Elon 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%

Colonial Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The CAA Men’s Conference Championship is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: North Charleston Coliseum (North Charleston, SC)
First Round: March 9th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 10th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Colonial Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/28 Delaware 17% Hofstra 83% Hofstra wins by 10
12/28 Drexel 8.3% Northeastern 91.7% Northeastern wins by 13
12/28 Towson 52.6% Elon 47.4% Towson wins by 1
12/28 James Madison 33.2% William & Mary 66.8% William & Mary wins by 6
12/29 Col Charleston 73.4% UNC Wilmington 26.6% Col Charleston wins by 7
12/30 Delaware 15% Northeastern 85% Northeastern wins by 11
12/30 Drexel 11.9% Hofstra 88.1% Hofstra wins by 12
12/30 James Madison 62.8% Elon 37.2% James Madison wins by 5
12/30 Towson 17.2% William & Mary 82.8% William & Mary wins by 10
1/3 Col Charleston 88.1% Towson 11.9% Col Charleston wins by 12
1/3 Elon 15.5% Drexel 84.5% Drexel wins by 11
1/3 UNC Wilmington 44.5% James Madison 55.5% James Madison wins by 2
1/3 William & Mary 36.2% Delaware 63.8% Delaware wins by 5
1/5 Col Charleston 79.2% James Madison 20.8% Col Charleston wins by 8
1/5 Elon 9.4% Delaware 90.6% Delaware wins by 13
1/5 William & Mary 47.8% Drexel 52.2% Drexel wins by 1
1/5 Northeastern 43.5% Hofstra 56.5% Hofstra wins by 2
1/5 UNC Wilmington 59.2% Towson 40.9% UNC Wilmington wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC