Colorado Buffaloes Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. All of these projections for Colorado are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Colorado Record and Rankings

Record: 17-15
Projected Final Record: 17.0-15.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 9-11
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 9.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 8

Colorado Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 90
RPI Rank: 82
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-8 5-2 5-5 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.714 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Colorado Buffaloes a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Colorado’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Colorado Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 118 N Colorado Home W 66-51
11/14 193 Denver Home W 89-62
11/17 280 Quinnipiac Lynchburg, VA W 70-69
11/18 151 Drake Lynchburg, VA W 86-81
11/19 156 Mercer Lynchburg, VA W 79-70
11/26 218 Air Force Home W 81-69
12/2 215 Colorado St Away L 63-72
12/6 99 New Mexico Home W 75-57
12/9 8 Xavier Away L 69-96
12/12 145 San Diego Home L 59-69
12/15 59 S Dakota St Home W 112-103
12/22 100 Iowa Sioux Falls, SD L 73-80
12/29 95 Oregon St Away L 57-76
12/31 60 Oregon Away L 62-77
1/4 53 Arizona St Home W 90-81
1/6 16 Arizona Home W 80-77
1/10 39 USC Away L 58-70
1/13 41 UCLA Away W 68-59
1/18 159 Washington St Home W 82-73
1/20 80 Washington Home L 62-72
1/25 16 Arizona Away L 71-80
1/27 53 Arizona St Away L 66-80
2/2 56 Utah Home W 67-55
2/7 203 California Home W 68-64
2/11 74 Stanford Home W 64-56
2/15 159 Washington St Away L 69-73
2/17 80 Washington Away L 59-82
2/21 39 USC Home L 64-75
2/25 41 UCLA Home W 80-76
3/3 56 Utah Away L 54-64
3/7 53 Arizona St Las Vegas, NV W 97-85
3/8 16 Arizona Las Vegas, NV L 67-83