Colorado Buffaloes Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. All of these projections for Colorado are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Colorado Record and Rankings

Record: 10-6
Projected Final Record: 16.8-13.2

Pac-12 Conference Record: 1-3
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 7.8-10.2
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 9

Colorado Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 108
RPI Rank: 93
NET Rank: 91
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-1 1-2 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.333 1.000

Our current projections give the Colorado Buffaloes a 7.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 7.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 85.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Colorado’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 1.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 1.2%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Colorado Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/13 122 Drake Home W 100-71
11/16 194 NE Omaha Home W 79-75
11/20 129 San Diego Away L 64-70
11/24 232 Air Force Away W 93-56
11/28 310 Portland Home W 93-69
12/1 212 Colorado St Home W 86-80
12/4 213 South Dakota Home W 82-58
12/8 198 IL Chicago Home W 84-72
12/11 186 New Mexico Away W 78-75
12/22 163 Indiana St Neutral L 67-72
12/23 152 Hawaii Away L 62-70
12/24 260 Charlotte Neutal W 68-53
1/3 44 Arizona Away L 56-64
1/5 61 Arizona St Away L 61-83
1/10 215 Washington St Home W 92-60
1/12 41 Washington Home L 70-77
1/20 119 Utah Away 41.2%
1/24 226 California Away 64.1%
1/26 132 Stanford Away 44.9%
1/31 57 Oregon St Home 48.2%
2/2 81 Oregon Home 51.8%
2/6 83 UCLA Away 32.1%
2/9 126 USC Away 41.2%
2/13 61 Arizona St Home 50%
2/17 44 Arizona Home 43.3%
2/20 215 Washington St Away 61.1%
2/23 41 Washington Away 18.2%
3/2 119 Utah Home 63.1%
3/7 83 UCLA Home 56.5%
3/9 126 USC Home 63.1%