Colorado Buffaloes Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. All of these projections for Colorado are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Colorado Record and Rankings

Record: 15-12
Projected Final Record: 16.0-14.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 7-8
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 9

Colorado Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 95
RPI Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-5 2-2 4-4 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.375 0.500 0.500 0.857

Our current projections give the Colorado Buffaloes a 0.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Colorado’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Colorado Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 123 N Colorado Home W 66-51
11/14 202 Denver Home W 89-62
11/17 279 Quinnipiac Lynchburg, VA W 70-69
11/18 137 Drake Lynchburg, VA W 86-81
11/19 171 Mercer Lynchburg, VA W 79-70
11/26 226 Air Force Home W 81-69
12/2 204 Colorado St Away L 63-72
12/6 136 New Mexico Home W 75-57
12/9 5 Xavier Away L 69-96
12/12 146 San Diego Home L 59-69
12/15 74 S Dakota St Home W 112-103
12/22 110 Iowa Sioux Falls, SD L 73-80
12/29 107 Oregon St Away L 57-76
12/31 65 Oregon Away L 62-77
1/4 34 Arizona St Home W 90-81
1/6 18 Arizona Home W 80-77
1/10 51 USC Away L 58-70
1/13 43 UCLA Away W 68-59
1/18 176 Washington St Home W 82-73
1/20 69 Washington Home L 62-72
1/25 18 Arizona Away L 71-80
1/27 34 Arizona St Away L 66-80
2/2 52 Utah Home W 67-55
2/7 191 California Home W 68-64
2/11 90 Stanford Home W 64-56
2/15 176 Washington St Away L 69-73
2/17 69 Washington Away L 59-82
2/21 51 USC Home 39.5%
2/25 43 UCLA Home 40.5%
3/3 52 Utah Away 18.4%