Colorado Buffaloes Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. All of these projections for Colorado are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Colorado Record and Rankings

Record: 7-1
Projected Final Record: 18.1-9.9

Pac-12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 9.7-8.3
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 6

Colorado Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 58
RPI Rank: 31
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-0 0-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Colorado Buffaloes a 27.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 35.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 37.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Colorado’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.8%
NIT #2 Seed 6.8%
NIT #3 Seed 7.4%
NIT #4 Seed 5.0%
NIT #5 Seed 4.8%
NIT #6 Seed 4.0%
NIT #7 Seed 1.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Colorado Buffaloes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Colorado Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/13 138 Drake Home W 100-71
11/16 269 NE Omaha Home W 79-75
11/20 61 San Diego Away L 64-70
11/24 256 Air Force Away W 93-56
11/28 238 Portland Home W 93-69
12/1 210 Colorado St Home W 86-80
12/4 231 South Dakota Home W 82-58
12/8 173 IL Chicago Home W 84-72
12/11 147 New Mexico Away 61.5%
12/22 141 Indiana St Neutal 73.6%
1/3 32 Arizona Away 22.3%
1/5 25 Arizona St Away 18.4%
1/10 179 Washington St Home 90.6%
1/12 44 Washington Home 55.5%
1/20 135 Utah Away 57.5%
1/24 170 California Away 63.4%
1/26 87 Stanford Away 44.5%
1/31 73 Oregon St Home 64.1%
2/2 51 Oregon Home 57.5%
2/6 52 UCLA Away 36.2%
2/9 112 USC Away 52.6%
2/13 25 Arizona St Home 45.6%
2/17 32 Arizona Home 50.7%
2/20 179 Washington St Away 63.4%
2/23 44 Washington Away 32.4%
3/2 135 Utah Home 81.8%
3/7 52 UCLA Home 59.2%
3/9 112 USC Home 77.2%