CUSA Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Conference USA projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the CUSA are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

CUSA Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Old Dominion 21 6 21.7 6.3 11 3 11.7 3.3
3 WKU 16 11 16.3 11.7 9 5 9.3 5.7
2 Southern Miss 16 9 16.7 9.3 9 5 9.7 5.3
4 UT San Antonio 15 12 15 12 9 5 9 5
6 UAB 16 11 16.3 11.7 8 6 8.3 6.7
5 North Texas 20 7 20.4 7.6 8 6 8.4 6.6
10 Marshall 14 13 14 13 7 7 7 7
7 FL Atlantic 16 11 16.7 11.3 7 7 7.7 7.3
9 Florida Intl 16 11 16.3 11.7 7 7 7.3 7.7
8 Louisiana Tech 17 10 17.6 10.4 7 7 7.6 7.4
12 Rice 10 17 10.4 17.6 5 9 5.4 9.6
11 MTSU 8 19 8.7 19.3 5 9 5.7 9.3
13 UTEP 8 17 8.6 17.4 3 11 3.6 11.4
14 Charlotte 6 19 6.3 19.7 3 11 3.3 11.7

Projected CUSA Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Conference USA. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Old Dominion 13 2.828

Projected CUSA Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Conference USA standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Old Dominion 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
WKU 0% 19% 43% 28% 100%
Southern Miss 0% 74% 10% 7% 100%
UT San Antonio 0% 4% 35% 47% 100%
UAB 0% 3% 7% 6% 100%
North Texas 0% 0% 5% 12% 100%
Marshall 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
FL Atlantic 0% 0% 0% 0% 71%
Florida Intl 0% 0% 0% 0% 37%
Louisiana Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 82%
Rice 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MTSU 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
UTEP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlotte 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

CUSA Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Conference USA Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Although there are fourteen teams in Conference USA, only the top twelve teams from the regular season make the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, TX)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Old Dominion
100%
66%
43.3%
25.3%
2
WKU
97.9%
61.7%
34.8%
18.7%
3
Southern Miss
100%
56%
27.4%
13.3%
4
UT San Antonio
94.2%
51.7%
23.6%
10.6%
5
UAB
67.5%
32%
14.7%
6%
6
North Texas
78.1%
39.8%
18.2%
9.7%
7
Marshall
43.3%
14.9%
7.3%
2.5%
8
FL Atlantic
50.2%
19.9%
8.1%
2.9%
9
Florida Intl
41.8%
10.9%
2.2%
1%
10
Louisiana Tech
69.5%
32.8%
17.2%
9.5%
11
Rice
29.3%
8.5%
2%
0.3%
12
MTSU
28.2%
5.8%
1.2%
0.2%

CUSA Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 WKU 28.2% Old Dominion 71.8% Old Dominion wins by 7
2/23 UAB 28.6% Southern Miss 71.4% Southern Miss wins by 7
2/23 Florida Intl 33.6% FL Atlantic 66.4% FL Atlantic wins by 6
2/23 Charlotte 34.4% MTSU 65.6% MTSU wins by 5
2/23 North Texas 37.9% Louisiana Tech 62.1% Louisiana Tech wins by 4
2/23 Rice 43.9% UTEP 56.1% UTEP wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC