CUSA Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Conference USA projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the CUSA are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

CUSA Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 MTSU 22 5 24.4 5.6 14 1 16.4 1.6
2 Old Dominion 21 5 23.8 6.2 12 2 14.8 3.2
3 WKU 20 7 22.5 8.5 12 2 14.5 3.5
4 Marshall 19 8 20.9 10.1 10 4 11.9 6.1
5 UT San Antonio 15 12 17.3 13.7 8 6 10.3 7.7
6 North Texas 14 13 16.4 14.6 7 7 9.4 8.6
7 UAB 17 11 18.2 12.8 8 7 9.2 8.8
8 Louisiana Tech 16 12 17.6 13.4 7 8 8.6 9.4
9 Southern Miss 13 15 14.1 16.9 6 9 7.1 10.9
10 Florida Intl 11 16 13 18 5 9 7 11
11 FL Atlantic 11 15 12.9 17.1 5 9 6.9 11.1
12 UTEP 8 18 9.7 20.3 3 11 4.7 13.3
13 Rice 5 22 6.2 24.8 2 12 3.2 14.8
14 Charlotte 5 20 6 23 1 13 2 16

Projected CUSA Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Conference USA. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
MTSU 12 4.52

CUSA Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Conference USA Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each CUSA team. Although there are fourteen teams in Conference USA, only the top twelve teams from the regular season make the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, TX)
First Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
MTSU
100%
79.7%
60.4%
34.7%
2
Old Dominion
100%
71%
38.4%
19.7%
3
WKU
100%
81.1%
48.5%
27.5%
4
Marshall
100%
70%
22.5%
9.1%
5
UT San Antonio
64.3%
22.4%
6.2%
1.2%
6
North Texas
62.2%
13%
3.3%
0.4%
7
UAB
75.3%
25.8%
7.9%
3.4%
8
Louisiana Tech
67.6%
16.4%
8.7%
3.2%
9
Southern Miss
32.4%
3.9%
0.7%
0.3%
10
Florida Intl
24.7%
3.2%
0.1%
0%
11
FL Atlantic
37.8%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
12
UTEP
35.7%
7.6%
1.5%
0.1%

CUSA Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 North Texas 48.5% Florida Intl 51.5% Florida Intl wins by 1
2/22 Rice 19.4% FL Atlantic 80.6% FL Atlantic wins by 9
2/22 Old Dominion 55.7% Marshall 44.3% Old Dominion wins by 2
2/22 Southern Miss 25.7% UT San Antonio 74.3% UT San Antonio wins by 7
2/22 Charlotte 2.3% WKU 97.7% WKU wins by 20
2/22 Louisiana Tech 60.5% UTEP 39.5% Louisiana Tech wins by 4
2/24 Rice 18.4% Florida Intl 81.6% Florida Intl wins by 9
2/24 North Texas 50.4% FL Atlantic 49.6% North Texas wins by 1
2/24 Charlotte 7.4% Marshall 92.6% Marshall wins by 15
2/24 UAB 15.3% MTSU 84.7% MTSU wins by 11
2/24 Louisiana Tech 47.8% UT San Antonio 52.2% UT San Antonio wins by 1
2/24 Old Dominion 38.2% WKU 61.8% WKU wins by 4
2/24 Southern Miss 44.1% UTEP 55.9% UTEP wins by 2
3/1 Florida Intl 55.9% Charlotte 44.1% Florida Intl wins by 2
3/1 FL Atlantic 7% Old Dominion 93% Old Dominion wins by 16
3/1 Marshall 37.9% UAB 62.1% UAB wins by 4
3/1 WKU 31.7% MTSU 68.3% MTSU wins by 6
3/1 UT San Antonio 41.8% North Texas 58.2% North Texas wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC