CUSA Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Conference USA projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the CUSA are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

CUSA Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 North Texas 10 1 21.5 5.5 0 0 10.1 3.9
2 Old Dominion 7 3 18.2 8.8 0 0 9.5 4.5
3 WKU 5 4 16.2 10.8 0 0 9.4 4.6
4 Louisiana Tech 7 3 18.7 8.3 0 0 8.9 5.1
5 Marshall 5 4 15.5 11.5 0 0 8.9 5.1
6 Southern Miss 5 2 15 10 0 0 8.1 5.9
7 FL Atlantic 7 2 16 11 0 0 7.1 6.9
8 UAB 6 3 15.6 11.4 0 0 6.9 7.1
9 Florida Intl 6 2 14.1 11.9 0 0 6.1 7.9
10 UT San Antonio 3 6 11.5 15.5 0 0 6 8
11 UTEP 3 5 10.5 13.5 0 0 5.9 8.1
12 MTSU 3 7 8.2 18.8 0 0 4.9 9.1
13 Charlotte 2 5 5.7 17.3 0 0 3.2 10.8
14 Rice 3 6 7.6 19.4 0 0 3 11

Projected CUSA Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Conference USA. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Old Dominion 15 2.496

Projected CUSA Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Conference USA standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
North Texas 24% 21% 19% 13% 95%
Old Dominion 23% 16% 17% 12% 93%
WKU 16% 24% 11% 17% 95%
Louisiana Tech 16% 16% 8% 13% 91%
Marshall 13% 13% 17% 13% 88%
Southern Miss 3% 4% 11% 11% 81%
FL Atlantic 3% 5% 5% 6% 67%
UAB 1% 0% 5% 8% 63%
Florida Intl 0% 1% 4% 3% 46%
UT San Antonio 1% 0% 1% 3% 36%
UTEP 0% 0% 2% 1% 26%
MTSU 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
Charlotte 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Rice 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%

CUSA Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Conference USA Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Although there are fourteen teams in Conference USA, only the top twelve teams from the regular season make the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, TX)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

CUSA Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/29 Southern Miss 32.1% Louisiana Tech 68% Louisiana Tech wins by 6
12/29 North Texas 82.8% Rice 17.2% North Texas wins by 10
1/3 WKU 80.2% Charlotte 19.8% WKU wins by 9
1/3 FL Atlantic 41.2% UAB 58.8% UAB wins by 3
1/3 Florida Intl 48.5% MTSU 51.5% MTSU wins by 1
1/3 UTEP 37.9% UT San Antonio 62.1% UT San Antonio wins by 4
1/3 Louisiana Tech 28.6% North Texas 71.4% North Texas wins by 7
1/3 Southern Miss 74.3% Rice 25.7% Southern Miss wins by 7
1/3 Marshall 35.1% Old Dominion 64.9% Old Dominion wins by 5
1/5 FL Atlantic 56.5% MTSU 43.5% FL Atlantic wins by 2
1/5 Florida Intl 32.4% UAB 67.6% UAB wins by 6
1/5 UT San Antonio 39.9% UTEP 60.1% UTEP wins by 4
1/5 Marshall 76.7% Charlotte 23.3% Marshall wins by 8
1/5 Louisiana Tech 79.7% Rice 20.3% Louisiana Tech wins by 9
1/5 Southern Miss 20.3% North Texas 79.7% North Texas wins by 9
1/5 WKU 39.2% Old Dominion 60.8% Old Dominion wins by 4
1/10 Charlotte 16.7% Florida Intl 83.3% Florida Intl wins by 10
1/10 North Texas 64.5% UTEP 35.5% North Texas wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC