Dayton Flyers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Dayton Flyers. All of these projections for Dayton are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Dayton Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 20.3-10.7

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 12.3-5.7
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 4

Dayton Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 73
RPI Rank: 76
NET Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 1-2 1-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Dayton Flyers a 26.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 42.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 31.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Dayton’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 3.0%
NIT #3 Seed 7.4%
NIT #4 Seed 7.2%
NIT #5 Seed 10.0%
NIT #6 Seed 8.6%
NIT #7 Seed 4.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Dayton Flyers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Dayton Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 179 North Florida Home W 78-70
11/10 348 Coppin St Home W 76-46
11/16 188 PFW Home W 91-80
11/21 49 Butler Neutal W 69-64
11/22 1 Virginia Neutral L 59-66
11/23 22 Oklahoma Neutral L 54-65
11/30 29 Mississippi St Home L 58-65
12/4 181 Detroit Home W 98-59
12/8 16 Auburn Away L 72-82
12/16 99 Tulsa Neutral L 67-72
12/19 246 W Michigan Home W 85-72
12/22 225 Presbyterian Home W 81-69
12/29 131 Ga Southern Home W 94-90
1/6 228 Richmond Home W 72-48
1/9 252 G Washington Away W 72-66
1/13 195 Massachusetts Home W 72-67
1/16 53 VA Commonwealth Away L 71-76
1/19 199 St Bonaventure Away 66.4%
1/23 135 George Mason Home 79.2%
1/26 239 Fordham Away 77.2%
1/29 164 St Joseph’s PA Home 82.6%
2/2 141 Duquesne Home 81.6%
2/5 67 St Louis Away 41.8%
2/9 134 Rhode Island Away 55.9%
2/16 53 VA Commonwealth Home 55.5%
2/19 72 Davidson Away 42.2%
2/23 67 St Louis Home 60.1%
2/26 195 Massachusetts Away 64.1%
3/1 134 Rhode Island Home 75.3%
3/6 272 La Salle Home 91.7%
3/9 141 Duquesne Away 57.8%