Dayton Flyers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Dayton Flyers. All of these projections for Dayton are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Dayton Record and Rankings

Record: 5-4
Projected Final Record: 20.8-10.2

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 12.5-5.5
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 3

Dayton Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 67
RPI Rank: 89
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 0-0 0-1 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Dayton Flyers a 33.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 34.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Dayton’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 2.4%
NIT #2 Seed 3.2%
NIT #3 Seed 4.0%
NIT #4 Seed 4.2%
NIT #5 Seed 4.8%
NIT #6 Seed 8.0%
NIT #7 Seed 5.0%
NIT #8 Seed 1.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Dayton Flyers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Dayton Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 167 North Florida Home W 78-70
11/10 352 Coppin St Home W 76-46
11/16 No Rank PFW Home W 91-80
11/21 37 Butler Neutal W 69-64
11/22 6 Virginia Neutral L 59-66
11/23 20 Oklahoma Neutral L 54-65
11/30 22 Mississippi St Home L 58-65
12/4 236 Detroit Home W 98-59
12/8 10 Auburn Away L 72-82
12/16 108 Tulsa Neutral 63.9%
12/19 214 W Michigan Home 92%
12/22 294 Presbyterian Home 98.4%
12/29 99 Ga Southern Home 71.4%
1/6 225 Richmond Home 92%
1/9 312 G Washington Away 91.7%
1/13 146 Massachusetts Home 82.3%
1/16 80 VA Commonwealth Away 43.3%
1/19 206 St Bonaventure Away 74.8%
1/23 192 George Mason Home 88.1%
1/26 235 Fordham Away 79.7%
1/29 126 St Joseph’s PA Home 77.2%
2/2 136 Duquesne Home 80.6%
2/5 81 St Louis Away 43.3%
2/9 121 Rhode Island Away 55.9%
2/16 80 VA Commonwealth Home 61.5%
2/19 54 Davidson Away 37.9%
2/23 81 St Louis Home 61.5%
2/26 146 Massachusetts Away 59.2%
3/1 121 Rhode Island Home 74.3%
3/6 317 La Salle Home 93%
3/9 136 Duquesne Away 57.1%