Duke Blue Devils Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Duke Blue Devils. All of these projections for Duke are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Duke Record and Rankings

Record: 15-2
Projected Final Record: 26.1-4.9

ACC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final ACC Record: 14.2-3.8
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 2

Duke Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 3
RPI Rank: 2
NET Rank: 4
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-1 3-1 4-0 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.833 0.750 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Duke Blue Devils a 99.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Duke’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 78.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Duke Blue Devils. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Duke Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 8 Kentucky Neutal W 118-84
11/11 240 Army Home W 94-72
11/14 162 E Michigan Home W 84-46
11/19 151 San Diego St Neutal W 90-64
11/20 20 Auburn Neutal W 78-72
11/21 5 Gonzaga Neutral L 87-89
11/27 34 Indiana Home W 90-69
12/1 345 Stetson Home W 113-49
12/5 200 Hartford Home W 84-54
12/8 66 Yale Home W 91-58
12/18 140 Princeton Home W 101-50
12/20 14 Texas Tech Neutal W 69-58
1/5 44 Clemson Home W 87-68
1/8 164 Wake Forest Away W 87-65
1/12 27 Florida St Away W 80-78
1/14 41 Syracuse Home L 91-95
1/19 1 Virginia Home W 72-70
1/22 65 Pittsburgh Away 86.8%
1/26 89 Georgia Tech Home 98.5%
1/28 82 Notre Dame Away 88.6%
2/2 38 St John’s Home 92.6%
2/5 123 Boston College Home 98.7%
2/9 1 Virginia Away 30.9%
2/12 21 Louisville Away 61.8%
2/16 33 NC State Home 91.8%
2/20 10 North Carolina Home 83.3%
2/23 41 Syracuse Away 72.1%
2/26 11 Virginia Tech Away 56.9%
3/2 97 Miami FL Home 97.1%
3/5 164 Wake Forest Home 98.7%
3/9 10 North Carolina Away 55.7%