East Carolina Pirates Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the East Carolina Pirates. All of these projections for East Carolina are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

East Carolina Record and Rankings

Record: 8-9
Projected Final Record: 11.9-18.1

AAC Conference Record: 1-4
Projected Final AAC Record: 4.9-13.1
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 11

East Carolina Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 216
RPI Rank: 265
NET Rank: 230
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-1 0-3 7-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.000 0.700

Our current projections give the East Carolina Pirates a 0.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account East Carolina’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the East Carolina Pirates. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

East Carolina Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 349 Delaware St Home W 81-56
11/9 236 James Madison Home L 72-73
11/11 277 Lamar Home W 84-78
11/16 82 Georgia Tech Away L 54-79
11/19 206 UTRGV Home W 69-64
11/21 271 Prairie View Home W 76-64
11/24 209 High Point Home L 52-55
11/27 214 UNC Wilmington Away L 86-95
11/30 291 Appalachian St Home W 83-81
12/2 352 MD E Shore Home W 70-47
12/18 260 Charlotte Away L 49-55
12/28 264 NC A&T Home W 77-57
1/2 104 SMU Away L 54-82
1/5 35 Cincinnati Home W 73-71
1/10 89 Memphis Away L 72-78
1/13 48 UCF Away L 65-76
1/16 40 Temple Home L 74-85
1/23 13 Houston Away 1.5%
1/26 130 South Florida Home 39.2%
1/31 305 Tulane Home 80.4%
2/3 94 Connecticut Away 12.2%
2/6 97 Wichita St Home 37.2%
2/10 130 South Florida Away 15.8%
2/13 89 Memphis Home 34.7%
2/17 99 Tulsa Home 38.2%
2/23 305 Tulane Away 55.1%
2/27 13 Houston Home 12.7%
3/3 99 Tulsa Away 15%
3/5 97 Wichita St Away 14.3%
3/10 94 Connecticut Home 37.2%