East Tennessee State Buccaneers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. All of these projections for ETSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

ETSU Record and Rankings

Record: 16-5
Projected Final Record: 22.9-8.1

Southern Conference Record: 6-2
Projected Final Southern Record: 12.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the Southern: 3

ETSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 81
RPI Rank: 86
NET Rank: 70
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 1-1 2-1 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.500 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the East Tennessee State Buccaneers a 21.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 42.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 37.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account ETSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 4.8%
NIT #4 Seed 8.6%
NIT #5 Seed 11.0%
NIT #6 Seed 11.6%
NIT #7 Seed 3.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

ETSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 87 Georgia St Away L 68-74
11/8 No Rank Hiwassee Home W 109-44
11/11 60 Creighton Away L 69-75
11/17 154 Winthrop Away W 76-74
11/19 342 Chicago St Home W 86-61
11/20 182 Sam Houston St Home W 77-63
11/24 251 N Dakota St Home W 79-61
11/27 124 Ga Southern Away W 69-64
12/1 35 Wofford Away L 62-79
12/3 No Rank Reinhardt Home W 107-60
12/8 332 TN Martin Home W 80-62
12/15 125 Illinois Away L 55-73
12/21 318 Wyoming Neutal W 76-53
12/22 259 Norfolk St Neutal W 89-61
12/29 68 Furman Home W 79-56
1/3 174 Samford Home W 81-72
1/5 241 Chattanooga Home W 96-70
1/10 211 Citadel Away W 98-73
1/12 194 Mercer Away W 72-68
1/17 294 VMI Home W 85-82
1/19 53 UNC Greensboro Home L 68-75
1/26 281 W Carolina Away 82.8%
1/31 174 Samford Away 63.4%
2/2 241 Chattanooga Away 79.7%
2/7 35 Wofford Home 42.2%
2/9 68 Furman Away 41.2%
2/14 211 Citadel Home 88.3%
2/16 194 Mercer Home 84.7%
2/21 294 VMI Away 82.8%
2/24 53 UNC Greensboro Away 36.9%
3/2 281 W Carolina Home 92.2%