East Tennessee State Buccaneers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. All of these projections for ETSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

ETSU Record and Rankings

Record: 23-6
Projected Final Record: 24.5-6.5

Southern Conference Record: 14-2
Projected Final Southern Record: 15.5-2.5
Projected Final Rank in the Southern: 1

ETSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 67
RPI Rank: 79
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 3-1 5-0 13-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.750 1.000 0.867

Our current projections give the East Tennessee State Buccaneers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 99.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account ETSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 2.0%
NIT #5 Seed 30.6%
NIT #6 Seed 61.8%
NIT #7 Seed 4.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

ETSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 119 N Kentucky Away L 63-81
11/13 276 Savannah St Away W 76-61
11/17 28 Kentucky Away L 61-78
11/20 351 Delaware St Home W 81-57
11/22 203 Troy Home L 65-73
11/25 161 IPFW Home W 83-73
11/29 245 Fordham Away W 82-77
12/6 119 N Kentucky Home W 84-71
12/10 No Rank Hiwassee Home W 94-48
12/16 5 Xavier Away L 66-68
12/19 302 Detroit Away W 81-73
12/22 167 Ga Southern Home W 79-59
12/28 No Rank Tusculum Home W 84-65
12/31 171 Mercer Away W 74-55
1/4 294 Samford Away W 90-72
1/6 300 Chattanooga Away W 85-66
1/11 92 UNC Greensboro Home W 68-58
1/13 313 VMI Home W 89-48
1/18 111 Furman Away W 62-61
1/20 251 W Carolina Home W 66-50
1/24 171 Mercer Home W 84-75
1/27 134 Wofford Away W 75-62
1/29 304 Citadel Away W 73-71
2/1 294 Samford Home W 96-76
2/3 300 Chattanooga Home W 81-61
2/10 313 VMI Away W 70-56
2/12 92 UNC Greensboro Away L 56-74
2/17 251 W Carolina Away W 72-61
2/20 304 Citadel Home L 82-84
2/23 134 Wofford Home 82.3%
2/25 111 Furman Home 70.3%