Evansville Purple Aces Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Evansville Purple Aces. All of these projections for Evansville are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Evansville Record and Rankings

Record: 9-9
Projected Final Record: 15.4-15.6

MVC Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final MVC Record: 9.4-8.6
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 4

Evansville Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 171
RPI Rank: 198
NET Rank: 161
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-2 3-6 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.000

Our current projections give the Evansville Purple Aces a 10.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 87.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Evansville’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 2.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 1.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Evansville Purple Aces. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Evansville Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 123 Illinois Away L 60-99
11/10 76 Xavier Away L 85-91
11/15 No Rank KY Wesleyan Home W 92-72
11/18 185 TX Southern Home W 85-63
11/24 107 Ball St Away L 72-82
11/28 307 Wyoming Home W 86-78
12/1 No Rank Albion Home W 65-49
12/4 211 Arkansas St Away L 77-87
12/9 107 Ball St Home W 89-77
12/15 117 Jacksonville St Home L 50-55
12/18 51 Murray St Away L 64-66
12/22 197 WI Green Bay Home W 80-75
12/30 187 Miami OH Away L 67-70
1/2 122 Drake Home W 82-77
1/5 172 Illinois St Away L 46-58
1/8 111 Loyola-Chicago Home W 67-48
1/12 163 Indiana St Home L 66-72
1/16 196 Missouri St Away W 70-64
1/19 172 Illinois St Home 59.8%
1/23 122 Drake Away 24.7%
1/26 191 Northern Iowa Away 46.3%
1/30 219 Bradley Home 72.8%
2/2 175 Valparaiso Home 60.8%
2/6 163 Indiana St Away 39.5%
2/9 148 S Illinois Away 34.4%
2/13 196 Missouri St Home 66.8%
2/17 191 Northern Iowa Home 65.6%
2/20 111 Loyola-Chicago Away 21.3%
2/23 219 Bradley Away 51.5%
2/27 148 S Illinois Home 55.5%
3/2 175 Valparaiso Away 41.2%