Evansville Purple Aces Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Evansville Purple Aces. All of these projections for Evansville are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Evansville Record and Rankings

Record: 11-21
Projected Final Record: 11.0-21.0

MVC Conference Record: 5-13
Projected Final MVC Record: 5.0-13.0
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 10

Evansville Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 236
RPI Rank: 272
NET Rank: 209
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-3 3-13 5-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 0.188 0.625

Our current projections give the Evansville Purple Aces a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Evansville’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Evansville Purple Aces. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Evansville Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 89 Illinois Away L 60-99
11/10 60 Xavier Away L 85-91
11/15 No Rank KY Wesleyan Home W 92-72
11/18 211 TX Southern Home W 85-63
11/24 149 Ball St Away L 72-82
11/28 315 Wyoming Home W 86-78
12/1 No Rank Albion Home W 65-49
12/4 244 Arkansas St Away L 77-87
12/9 149 Ball St Home W 89-77
12/15 115 Jacksonville St Home L 50-55
12/18 50 Murray St Away L 64-66
12/22 198 WI Green Bay Home W 80-75
12/30 154 Miami OH Away L 67-70
1/2 111 Drake Home W 82-77
1/5 179 Illinois St Away L 46-58
1/8 130 Loyola-Chicago Home W 67-48
1/12 189 Indiana St Home L 66-72
1/16 175 Missouri St Away W 70-64
1/19 179 Illinois St Home L 70-78
1/23 111 Drake Away L 66-78
1/26 169 Northern Iowa Away L 74-81
1/30 153 Bradley Home L 73-81
2/2 209 Valparaiso Home W 64-53
2/6 189 Indiana St Away L 62-85
2/9 148 S Illinois Away L 73-78
2/13 175 Missouri St Home L 56-68
2/17 169 Northern Iowa Home L 58-73
2/20 130 Loyola-Chicago Away L 58-70
2/23 153 Bradley Away L 61-63
2/27 148 S Illinois Home L 91-98
3/2 209 Valparaiso Away W 65-63
3/7 179 Illinois St Neutral L 60-65