Fairfield Stags Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Fairfield Stags. All of these projections for Fairfield are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Fairfield Record and Rankings

Record: 5-12
Projected Final Record: 12.1-17.9

MAAC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final MAAC Record: 9.1-8.9
Projected Final Rank in the MAAC: 4

Fairfield Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 267
RPI Rank: 288
NET Rank: 252
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 1-2 4-7
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.364

Our current projections give the Fairfield Stags a 8.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 90.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fairfield’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 8.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 1.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fairfield Stags. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fairfield Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 19 Purdue Away L 57-90
11/10 150 Bucknell Away W 60-58
11/13 256 LIU Brooklyn Home L 87-89
11/17 204 Wagner Home L 73-79
11/23 221 Longwood Neutral L 65-67
11/24 157 Seattle Away L 80-83
11/25 301 Denver Neutal W 86-85
12/1 253 Army Away L 60-63
12/6 223 Oakland Home L 86-87
12/9 95 Old Dominion Away L 69-79
12/16 128 Boston College Away L 67-77
12/22 345 New Hampshire Away W 63-57
1/3 170 Rider Home L 82-83
1/5 238 Iona Away L 87-94
1/7 290 Niagara Home W 77-59
1/10 299 St Peter’s Home W 60-57
1/13 224 Quinnipiac Away L 78-80
1/17 281 Monmouth NJ Away 43.3%
1/19 266 Canisius Home 62.1%
1/24 270 Siena Home 62.5%
1/27 238 Iona Home 56.9%
1/31 339 Manhattan Away 60.8%
2/2 286 Marist Away 42.7%
2/4 270 Siena Away 40.2%
2/9 281 Monmouth NJ Home 65.6%
2/15 266 Canisius Away 39.9%
2/17 290 Niagara Away 44.9%
2/24 339 Manhattan Home 84.5%
3/1 286 Marist Home 64.5%
3/3 299 St Peter’s Away 46.3%