Fairfield Stags Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Fairfield Stags. All of these projections for Fairfield are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Fairfield Record and Rankings

Record: 9-22
Projected Final Record: 9.0-22.0

MAAC Conference Record: 6-12
Projected Final MAAC Record: 6.0-12.0
Projected Final Rank in the MAAC: 10

Fairfield Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 308
RPI Rank: 329
NET Rank: 292
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-0 0-7 8-13
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.381

Our current projections give the Fairfield Stags a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fairfield’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fairfield Stags. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fairfield Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 12 Purdue Away L 57-90
11/10 146 Bucknell Away W 60-58
11/13 263 LIU Brooklyn Home L 87-89
11/17 299 Wagner Home L 73-79
11/23 295 Longwood Neutral L 65-67
11/24 188 Seattle Away L 80-83
11/25 324 Denver Neutal W 86-85
12/1 251 Army Away L 60-63
12/6 192 Oakland Home L 86-87
12/9 87 Old Dominion Away L 69-79
12/16 119 Boston College Away L 67-77
12/22 341 New Hampshire Away W 63-57
1/3 225 Rider Home L 82-83
1/5 195 Iona Away L 87-94
1/7 303 Niagara Home W 77-59
1/10 311 St Peter’s Home W 60-57
1/13 240 Quinnipiac Away L 78-80
1/17 261 Monmouth NJ Away L 57-74
1/19 259 Canisius Home L 68-73
1/24 234 Siena Home L 48-57
1/27 195 Iona Home W 80-68
1/31 307 Manhattan Away L 49-62
2/2 293 Marist Away W 57-52
2/4 234 Siena Away L 50-61
2/9 261 Monmouth NJ Home L 49-61
2/15 259 Canisius Away L 68-72
2/17 303 Niagara Away L 73-78
2/24 307 Manhattan Home W 72-59
3/1 293 Marist Home W 59-44
3/3 311 St Peter’s Away L 52-62
3/7 307 Manhattan Neutral L 53-57