Florida Gators Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Florida Gators. All of these projections for Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 15.0-14.0

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 9

Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 48
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Florida Gators a 89.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 6.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 23.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 28.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Florida Gators. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 10 Florida St Away L 60-81
11/9 221 Charleston So Home W 76-46
11/14 209 La Salle Home 91.4%
11/21 74 Oklahoma Neutral 55.8%
11/27 262 North Florida Home 95.7%
12/4 44 West Virginia Neutral 50.4%
12/8 12 Michigan St Home 41.2%
12/18 130 Mercer Home 84.7%
12/22 231 FL Gulf Coast Neutal 90.3%
12/29 28 Butler Home 52.2%
1/5 112 South Carolina Home 79.9%
1/9 58 Arkansas Away 39.2%
1/12 7 Tennessee Home 34%
1/15 32 Mississippi St Away 29.7%
1/19 49 Georgia Away 37.9%
1/22 70 Texas A&M Home 67.6%
1/26 59 TCU Away 40.2%
1/30 91 Mississippi Home 73.3%
2/2 11 Kentucky Home 36.6%
2/5 19 Auburn Away 20.6%
2/9 7 Tennessee Away 11.7%
2/13 30 Vanderbilt Home 48.2%
2/16 57 Alabama Away 41.8%
2/20 51 LSU Away 41.2%
2/23 89 Missouri Home 76.7%
2/27 30 Vanderbilt Away 24.3%
3/2 49 Georgia Home 59.8%
3/6 51 LSU Home 62.8%
3/9 11 Kentucky Away 13.4%