Florida Gators Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Florida Gators. All of these projections for Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 10-7
Projected Final Record: 17.0-14.0

SEC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.6-9.4
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 7

Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 40
RPI Rank: 77
NET Rank: 43
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-6 4-0 1-1 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Florida Gators a 57.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 36.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.2%
NIT #2 Seed 8.0%
NIT #3 Seed 6.2%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 2.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Florida Gators. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 27 Florida St Away L 60-81
11/9 284 Charleston So Home W 76-46
11/14 275 La Salle Home W 82-69
11/21 29 Oklahoma Neutral L 60-65
11/22 130 Stanford Neutal W 72-49
11/23 42 Butler Neutral L 54-61
11/27 172 North Florida Home W 98-66
12/4 84 West Virginia Neutal W 66-56
12/8 2 Michigan St Home L 59-63
12/18 194 Mercer Home W 71-63
12/22 273 FL Gulf Coast Neutal W 77-56
12/29 42 Butler Home W 77-43
1/5 91 South Carolina Home L 69-71
1/9 78 Arkansas Away W 57-51
1/12 4 Tennessee Home L 67-78
1/15 28 Mississippi St Away L 68-71
1/19 94 Georgia Away W 62-52
1/22 122 Texas A&M Home 87.3%
1/26 31 TCU Away 34.4%
1/30 23 Mississippi Home 52.9%
2/2 8 Kentucky Home 41.5%
2/5 20 Auburn Away 21.3%
2/9 4 Tennessee Away 9.4%
2/13 106 Vanderbilt Home 85.7%
2/16 49 Alabama Away 45.2%
2/20 16 LSU Away 25.2%
2/23 71 Missouri Home 82.1%
2/27 106 Vanderbilt Away 60.8%
3/2 94 Georgia Home 84.2%
3/6 16 LSU Home 50.7%
3/9 8 Kentucky Away 17.7%