Florida Gators Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Florida Gators. All of these projections for Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 19-15
Projected Final Record: 19.0-15.0

SEC Conference Record: 9-9
Projected Final SEC Record: 9.0-9.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 8

Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 29
RPI Rank: 57
NET Rank: 31
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-12 2-1 8-1 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.667 0.889 0.857

Our current projections give the Florida Gators a 96.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 19.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 32.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Florida Gators. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 10 Florida St Away L 60-81
11/9 193 Charleston So Home W 76-46
11/14 221 La Salle Home W 82-69
11/21 37 Oklahoma Neutral L 60-65
11/22 135 Stanford Neutal W 72-49
11/23 72 Butler Neutral L 54-61
11/27 180 North Florida Home W 98-66
12/4 77 West Virginia Neutal W 66-56
12/8 6 Michigan St Home L 59-63
12/18 214 Mercer Home W 71-63
12/22 219 FL Gulf Coast Neutal W 77-56
12/29 72 Butler Home W 77-43
1/5 65 South Carolina Home L 69-71
1/9 63 Arkansas Away W 57-51
1/12 3 Tennessee Home L 67-78
1/15 21 Mississippi St Away L 68-71
1/19 124 Georgia Away W 62-52
1/22 78 Texas A&M Home W 81-72
1/26 43 TCU Away L 50-55
1/30 38 Mississippi Home W 90-86
2/2 5 Kentucky Home L 54-65
2/5 16 Auburn Away L 62-76
2/9 3 Tennessee Away L 61-73
2/13 161 Vanderbilt Home W 66-57
2/16 54 Alabama Away W 71-53
2/20 13 LSU Away W 82-77
2/23 73 Missouri Home W 64-60
2/27 161 Vanderbilt Away W 71-55
3/2 124 Georgia Home L 55-61
3/6 13 LSU Home L 78-79
3/9 5 Kentucky Away L 57-66
3/14 63 Arkansas Neutal W 66-50
3/15 13 LSU Neutal W 76-73
3/16 16 Auburn Neutral L 62-65