Florida State Seminoles Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Florida State Seminoles. All of these projections for Florida St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Florida St Record and Rankings

Record: 22-11
Projected Final Record: 22.3-11.7

ACC Conference Record: 9-10
Projected Final ACC Record: 9.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 8

Florida St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 36
RPI Rank: 53
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-7 1-3 4-1 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.462 0.250 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Florida State Seminoles a 92.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 7.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Florida St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 32.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 32.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.0%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Florida State Seminoles. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Florida St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/14 175 G Washington Home W 87-67
11/17 270 Fordham St. James, Jamaica W 67-43
11/19 215 Colorado St St. James, Jamaica W 90-73
11/22 309 Kennesaw Home W 98-79
11/24 294 Citadel Home W 113-78
11/28 134 Rutgers Away W 78-73
12/4 23 Florida Away W 83-66
12/6 319 Loyola MD Home W 96-71
12/10 167 Tulane Tampa, FL W 72-53
12/16 37 Oklahoma St Sunrise, FL L 70-71
12/18 245 Charleston So Home W 69-58
12/21 207 Southern Miss Home W 98-45
12/30 3 Duke Away L 93-100
1/3 10 North Carolina Home W 81-80
1/7 30 Miami FL Away L 74-80
1/10 33 Louisville Home L 69-73
1/13 54 Syracuse Home W 101-90
1/15 71 Boston College Away L 75-81
1/20 27 Virginia Tech Away W 91-82
1/24 114 Georgia Tech Home W 88-77
1/27 30 Miami FL Home W 103-94
1/31 115 Wake Forest Away L 72-76
2/3 33 Louisville Away W 80-76
2/7 1 Virginia Home L 55-59
2/10 52 Notre Dame Away L 69-84
2/14 20 Clemson Home W 81-79
2/18 217 Pittsburgh Home W 88-75
2/25 38 NC State Away L 72-92
2/28 20 Clemson Away L 63-76
3/3 71 Boston College Home W 85-76
3/7 33 Louisville Brooklyn, NY L 74-82
3/16 42 Missouri NCAA Tournament Nashville TN W 67-54
3/18 8 Xavier NCAA Tournament W 75-70
3/22 11 Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Los Angeles, CA 34.6%