Florida State Seminoles Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Florida State Seminoles. All of these projections for Florida St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Florida St Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 22.3-6.7

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 12.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 4

Florida St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 10
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Florida State Seminoles a 89.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 4.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Florida St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 9.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 15.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 18.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 18.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Florida State Seminoles. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Florida St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 48 Florida Home W 81-60
11/11 215 Tulane Away W 80-69
11/19 122 Canisius Home 93%
11/22 86 UAB Neutral 83.9%
11/28 14 Purdue Home 76.7%
12/3 194 Troy Home 98.5%
12/8 160 Connecticut Neutral 92.7%
12/17 305 SE Missouri St Home 99.1%
12/19 262 North Florida Home 98.7%
12/22 146 St Louis Neutral 91.7%
1/1 154 Winthrop Home 96.4%
1/5 4 Virginia Away 23.3%
1/9 23 Miami FL Home 79.9%
1/12 1 Duke Home 37.2%
1/14 177 Pittsburgh Away 89.4%
1/20 69 Boston College Away 62.5%
1/22 21 Clemson Home 79.4%
1/27 23 Miami FL Away 52.2%
2/2 96 Georgia Tech Home 92%
2/5 26 Syracuse Away 52.6%
2/9 38 Louisville Home 83.8%
2/13 103 Wake Forest Home 92.2%
2/16 96 Georgia Tech Away 70.3%
2/19 21 Clemson Away 51.8%
2/23 5 North Carolina Away 25.7%
2/25 41 Notre Dame Home 84%
3/2 25 NC State Home 79.7%
3/5 22 Virginia Tech Home 76.2%
3/9 103 Wake Forest Away 72.1%